Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.15 · now $36.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NGS has typically landed between $30.88 and $44.04 — a range of −14.6% to +21.8% from the issuance price $36.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NGS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $36.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $36.79 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.45–$39.14
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.88–$44.04
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −60.4% | −60.4% | +2.6% |
| 2020-02-19 | −56.3% | −61.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-03 | −55.0% | −55.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-04 | +60.0% | +0.0% | +60.0% |
| 2009-04-30 | +52.8% | +0.0% | +52.8% |
| 2008-03-20 | +52.2% | +0.0% | +52.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $37.23 | $1.1M | −14.6% of holding | +3.5% | −18.7% | 175,432 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 70,000 @ $37.58 | $2.6M | −25.4% of holding | +3.9% | −18.6% | 205,432 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $33.54 | $335K | −3.5% of holding | +1.1% | +15.3% | 275,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $33.16 | $332K | −3.4% of holding | +1.2% | +19.2% | 285,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | HOLLEY JEAN K | director | Purchase | 2,190 @ $32.04 | $70K | +18.0% of holding | +8.6% | +24.7% | 14,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | HOLLEY JEAN K | director | Purchase | 935 @ $32.00 | $30K | +8.3% of holding | +8.6% | +24.7% | 12,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $32.12 | $642K | −6.3% of holding | +6.4% | +19.5% | 295,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $31.37 | $314K | −3.1% of holding | +1.9% | +25.6% | 315,432 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $30.31 | $303K | −3.0% of holding | +2.2% | +25.4% | 325,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $31.01 | $310K | −2.9% of holding | +6.8% | +29.9% | 335,432 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $30.00 | $300K | −2.8% of holding | +9.4% | +29.0% | 345,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 8,748 @ $29.50 | $258K | −2.4% of holding | +9.4% | +29.0% | 355,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 9,900 @ $29.00 | $287K | −2.6% of holding | +11.4% | +35.8% | 365,432 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-07 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 1,252 @ $29.50 | $37K | −0.3% of holding | +11.4% | +35.8% | 364,180 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-06 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 100 @ $29.00 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +8.6% | +29.1% | 375,332 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 7,915 @ $28.50 | $226K | −2.1% of holding | −7.4% | +37.6% | 375,432 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-25 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 759 @ $28.50 | $22K | −0.2% of holding | −5.4% | +44.1% | 383,347 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-24 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 1,326 @ $28.50 | $38K | −0.3% of holding | −2.4% | +43.3% | 384,106 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-23 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $28.01 | $280K | −2.5% of holding | −2.9% | +42.3% | 385,432 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-23 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 1,457 @ $27.50 | $40K | −0.4% of holding | −2.9% | +42.3% | 395,432 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-19 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 63 @ $27.50 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −0.5% | +47.4% | 396,889 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-18 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 1,638 @ $27.50 | $45K | −0.4% of holding | −6.1% | +45.0% | 396,952 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-17 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 6,553 @ $27.51 | $180K | −1.6% of holding | −3.1% | +47.7% | 398,590 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 289 @ $27.50 | $8K | −0.1% of holding | −4.1% | +37.1% | 405,143 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-04 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $27.00 | $270K | −2.4% of holding | −3.4% | +36.2% | 403,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-04 | HOLLEY JEAN K | director | Purchase | 3,752 @ $26.58 | $100K | +92.7% of holding | −3.4% | +36.2% | 7,800 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $26.50 | $265K | −2.3% of holding | +2.8% | +36.4% | 423,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $26.00 | $260K | −2.4% of holding | +2.8% | +36.4% | 413,334 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | HOLLEY JEAN K | director | Purchase | 4,048 @ $24.49 | $99K | ownership Δ n/a | +8.6% | +46.5% | 4,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $24.90 | $623K | −5.5% of holding | +2.8% | +3.9% | 433,334 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $29.01 | $290K | −2.2% of holding | −7.7% | −22.6% | 438,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 9,400 @ $28.57 | $269K | −2.1% of holding | −7.7% | −22.6% | 448,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $27.15 | $272K | −2.1% of holding | +4.6% | −0.7% | 457,787 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
106 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | TRINGALI DONALD J | director | Award / grant | 59 | 13,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Gallegos John A. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 3,009 | 3,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | HOLLEY JEAN K | director | Award / grant | 3,009 | 3,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hodges Georganne | director | Award / grant | 3,009 | 3,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | JACKSON JOHN EARL | director | Award / grant | 3,009 | 3,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Jenvey Nigel | director | Award / grant | 3,521 | 3,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | TRINGALI DONALD J | director | Award / grant | 4,574 | 4,574 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Award / grant | 334 | 95,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | TRINGALI DONALD J | director | Award / grant | 49 | 17,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Other acquisition | 2,228 | 197,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Hodges Georganne | director | Other acquisition | 2,228 | 11,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Jenvey Nigel | director | Option exercise | 4,456 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Option exercise | 4,456 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gallegos John A. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 4,456 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | HOLLEY JEAN K | director | Option exercise | 4,456 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Hodges Georganne | director | Option exercise | 4,456 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | TRINGALI DONALD J | director | Option exercise | 4,456 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Jenvey Nigel | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 26,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gallegos John A. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 5,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | HOLLEY JEAN K | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 18,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Hodges Georganne | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 13,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Jenvey Nigel | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 26,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | TRINGALI DONALD J | director | Award / grant | 446 | 1,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | TRINGALI DONALD J | director | Award / grant | 4,010 | 17,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | HOLLEY JEAN K | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 18,846 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 200,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gallegos John A. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 5,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Hodges Georganne | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 13,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | TRINGALI DONALD J | director | Award / grant | 446 | 1,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | TRINGALI DONALD J | director | Award / grant | 4,010 | 17,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Taylor Stephen Charles | director | Award / grant | 4,456 | 200,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gallegos John A. Jr. | director | Option exercise | 889 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gallegos John A. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 889 | 889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Gallegos John A. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 889 | 889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Jacobs Justin | director | Withheld for tax | 4,433 | 26,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Jacobs Justin | director | Option exercise | 1,556 | 3,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Jacobs Justin | director | Option exercise | 10,140 | 20,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Jacobs Justin | director | Award / grant | 11,696 | 31,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Jacobs Justin | director | Award / grant | 11,696 | 31,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Jacobs Justin | director | Award / grant | 27,647 | 27,647 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.