Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.94 · now $18.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NEO has typically landed between $13.51 and $25.48 — a range of −28.7% to +34.5% from the issuance price $18.94.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NEO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.94 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.54 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.05–$21.03
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.51–$25.48
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −44.6% | −44.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-08 | −43.0% | −43.0% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-28 | −41.7% | −41.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-02-13 | +85.5% | +0.0% | +85.5% |
| 2025-07-31 | +81.4% | +0.0% | +81.4% |
| 2006-10-10 | +73.3% | −3.8% | +73.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Aunan Greg D | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $16.07 | $321K | −79.5% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Sale | 5,307 @ $11.10 | $59K | −5.8% of holding | +34.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,115 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Sale | 5,307 @ $11.29 | $60K | −5.5% of holding | +20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Stone Warren | officer | Sale | 22,128 @ $12.50 | $277K | −15.4% of holding | −21.8% | −0.1% | 121,631 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Olivo Alicia C | officer | Sale | 20,916 @ $12.00 | $251K | −40.2% of holding | −3.1% | −27.5% | 31,083 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Olivo Alicia C | officer | Sale | 4,918 @ $10.00 | $49K | −10.3% of holding | −1.1% | −27.8% | 43,022 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Sherman Jeffrey Scott | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $5.62 | $112K | +11.9% of holding | +43.1% | +97.6% | 188,332 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-06 | Zook Anthony P. | director | Purchase | 17,900 @ $5.58 | $100K | +88.8% of holding | +43.1% | +97.6% | 38,066 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-27 | Kelly Michael Aaron | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $7.60 | $38K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.3% | +41.0% | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | Stone Warren | officer | Purchase | 5,700 @ $8.58 | $49K | +5.6% of holding | −11.1% | +4.7% | 108,280 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $8.14 | $57K | ownership Δ n/a | −9.5% | +5.6% | 7,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-07 | KANOVSKY STEPHEN M | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $7.78 | $31K | +11.1% of holding | −14.0% | +8.9% | 40,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Zook Anthony P. | director | Purchase | 18,900 @ $7.88 | $149K | ownership Δ n/a | −13.4% | +9.8% | 18,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Perez David Brian | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $7.63 | $76K | ownership Δ n/a | −11.6% | +2.8% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Gunn Neil | director | Purchase | 4,510 @ $7.75 | $35K | +39.8% of holding | −11.6% | +2.8% | 15,846 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Sherman Jeffrey Scott | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $7.51 | $150K | +14.4% of holding | −8.0% | +5.8% | 158,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
186 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Olivo Alicia C | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,692 | 90,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Stone Warren | officer | Option exercise | 28,106 | 192,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Stone Warren | officer | Option exercise | 28,106 | 28,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Stone Warren | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,060 | 181,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Starrett Carolyn S | director | Award / grant | 9,784 | 9,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Starrett Carolyn S | director | Award / grant | 14,125 | 14,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | KANOVSKY STEPHEN M | director | Award / grant | 15,970 | 15,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kelly Michael Aaron | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 67,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kelly Michael Aaron | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kelly Michael Aaron | director | Award / grant | 11,069 | 11,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kelly Michael Aaron | director | Award / grant | 15,970 | 15,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kenny John P. | director | Option exercise | 5,893 | 5,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kenny John P. | director | Option exercise | 5,893 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kenny John P. | director | Award / grant | 11,069 | 11,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Kenny John P. | director | Award / grant | 15,970 | 15,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Perez David Brian | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 56,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Perez David Brian | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Perez David Brian | director | Award / grant | 11,069 | 11,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Perez David Brian | director | Award / grant | 15,970 | 15,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 96,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Award / grant | 11,069 | 11,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Award / grant | 15,970 | 15,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Williams Felicia | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 30,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Williams Felicia | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Williams Felicia | director | Award / grant | 11,069 | 11,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Williams Felicia | director | Award / grant | 15,970 | 15,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Green Marjorie C | director | Award / grant | 11,069 | 11,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Green Marjorie C | director | Award / grant | 15,970 | 15,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gunn Neil | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 51,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gunn Neil | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gunn Neil | director | Award / grant | 11,069 | 11,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gunn Neil | director | Award / grant | 15,970 | 15,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | KANOVSKY STEPHEN M | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 75,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | KANOVSKY STEPHEN M | director | Option exercise | 23,077 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | KANOVSKY STEPHEN M | director | Award / grant | 11,069 | 11,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Green Marjorie C | director | Option exercise | 22,964 | 22,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Green Marjorie C | director | Option exercise | 22,964 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Stone Warren | officer | Option exercise | 5,830 | 167,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Stone Warren | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,783 | 164,032 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.