Issued 2026-09-16 at $309.02 · now $309.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NDSN has typically landed between $278.09 and $341.34 — a range of −10.0% to +10.5% from the issuance price $309.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($309.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NDSN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $309.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $309.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $312.71 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $300.04–$325.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $278.09–$341.34
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −42.0% | −42.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −41.4% | −41.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −39.5% | −40.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +53.7% | +0.0% | +53.7% |
| 2009-03-11 | +52.9% | +0.0% | +52.9% |
| 2009-03-06 | +50.1% | −4.0% | +53.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$16.5B
market cap
$9.37
EPS (TTM)
31.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-19
next earnings
Revenue$2.8B
'20'25
Net income$484M
'20'25
Free cash flow$661M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr17.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr15.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.71
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$217.46
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$287.22
- Analyst target · range $300.00–$345.00$325.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$309.02
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.3%
n=18
Feb
63%
+3.3%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.9%
n=19
May
58%
+2.4%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Jul
63%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Oct
67%
+0.7%
n=18
Nov
83%
+2.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Rutledge Joseph M | officer | Sale | 684 @ $309.38 | $212K | −24.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,134 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Morris Milton Mayo | director | Sale | 156 @ $316.63 | $49K | −5.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,515 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | MCDONOUGH JENNIFER L | officer | Sale | 260 @ $336.00 | $87K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Hopgood Daniel Roy | officer | Sale | 1,329 @ $334.29 | $444K | −21.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,758 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Subramanian Srinivas | officer | Sale | 1,900 @ $280.00 | $532K | −20.0% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,607 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Subramanian Srinivas | officer | Sale | 1,200 @ $280.00 | $336K | −15.8% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,407 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Morris Milton Mayo | director | Sale | 245 @ $273.87 | $67K | −8.4% of holding | −5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,656 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Hall Justin E | officer | Sale | 716 @ $275.82 | $197K | −32.1% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,515 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | NAGARAJAN SUNDARAM | director | Sale | 41,800 @ $293.26 | $12.3M | −39.2% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 64,824 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 6,295 @ $293.07 | $1.8M | −40.1% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 9,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 2,139 @ $292.95 | $627K | −22.7% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,268 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 60 @ $293.18 | $18K | −0.8% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,322 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 59 @ $291.81 | $17K | −0.8% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 53 @ $295.25 | $16K | −0.7% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,268 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 16 @ $292.56 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,482 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 15 @ $292.98 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 14 @ $292.82 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 13 @ $292.85 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 12 @ $292.60 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,456 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 11 @ $292.84 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,410 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 9 @ $292.57 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,473 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 7 @ $292.69 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 4 @ $292.65 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 4 @ $292.59 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,468 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 3 @ $292.81 | $878 | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,435 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 3 @ $292.78 | $878 | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,438 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 3 @ $292.63 | $878 | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,453 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 1 @ $295.26 | $295 | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,321 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 1 @ $292.66 | $293 | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 1 @ $292.58 | $293 | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,472 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 1 @ $292.53 | $293 | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 1 @ $291.49 | $291 | −0.0% of holding | −3.7% | +1.8% | 7,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 15,022 @ $289.32 | $4.3M | −52.5% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 13,570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 6,011 @ $289.30 | $1.7M | −44.3% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 7,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 758 @ $289.00 | $219K | −8.1% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 8,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 130 @ $289.01 | $38K | −1.6% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 8,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $290.40 | $29K | −1.3% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 7,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $290.39 | $29K | −1.3% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 7,859 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $289.47 | $29K | −1.3% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 7,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $289.46 | $29K | −1.3% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 7,759 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 100 @ $289.04 | $29K | −1.2% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 7,959 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 95 @ $289.11 | $27K | −1.0% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 9,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 92 @ $289.08 | $27K | −1.0% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 9,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 84 @ $289.26 | $24K | −1.0% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 8,465 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 84 @ $289.25 | $24K | −1.0% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 8,549 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 60 @ $289.64 | $17K | −0.7% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 8,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 60 @ $289.63 | $17K | −0.7% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 8,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 54 @ $289.71 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 8,309 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 51 @ $289.84 | $15K | −0.6% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 8,363 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 51 @ $289.83 | $15K | −0.6% of holding | −2.5% | +3.8% | 8,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | DeVries James E | officer | Sale | 9,100 @ $233.60 | $2.1M | −15.1% of holding | −0.2% | +10.0% | 51,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Morris Milton Mayo | director | Sale | 265 @ $231.00 | $61K | −8.4% of holding | +3.8% | +17.8% | 2,901 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-21 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $240.00 | $528K | −25.6% of holding | −3.0% | +14.0% | 6,405 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $232.39 | $534K | −21.1% of holding | −2.5% | +14.9% | 8,605 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Lovass Stephen | officer | Sale | 1,299 @ $206.79 | $269K | −15.0% of holding | +2.3% | +1.7% | 7,347 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
147 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Hall Justin E | officer | Withheld for tax | 118 | 1,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Hopgood Daniel Roy | officer | Option exercise | 1,329 | 15,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Hopgood Daniel Roy | officer | Option exercise | 1,329 | 6,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Rutledge Joseph M | officer | Withheld for tax | 274 | 2,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | DeFord John A | director | Award / grant | 84 | 5,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | MAPES CHRISTOPHER L | director | Award / grant | 42 | 3,025 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Hopgood Daniel Roy | officer | Withheld for tax | 148 | 4,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | CLAYTON ANNETTE K | director | Award / grant | 270 | 2,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | DeFord John A | director | Award / grant | 87 | 5,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-30 | MAPES CHRISTOPHER L | director | Award / grant | 43 | 2,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Subramanian Srinivas | officer | Option exercise | 1,900 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Subramanian Srinivas | officer | Option exercise | 1,900 | 9,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | DeVries James E | officer | Withheld for tax | 127 | 49,906 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | DeVries James E | officer | Withheld for tax | 71 | 50,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Siddiqui Sarah | officer | Withheld for tax | 30 | 5,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | NAGARAJAN SUNDARAM | director | Option exercise | 41,800 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | NAGARAJAN SUNDARAM | director | Option exercise | 41,800 | 106,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Option exercise | 6,295 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Option exercise | 6,295 | 13,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Option exercise | 2,139 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Option exercise | 2,139 | 15,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Option exercise | 15,022 | 6,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Option exercise | 15,022 | 22,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Option exercise | 6,011 | 2,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Option exercise | 6,011 | 28,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | DeFord John A | director | Award / grant | 91 | 5,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | MAPES CHRISTOPHER L | director | Award / grant | 45 | 2,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Award / grant | 1,960 | 10,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | DeVries James E | officer | Award / grant | 922 | 51,623 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | MCDONOUGH JENNIFER L | officer | Award / grant | 922 | 6,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | NAGARAJAN SUNDARAM | director | Award / grant | 576 | 65,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Kelley Joseph P | officer | Withheld for tax | 561 | 9,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Subramanian Srinivas | officer | Award / grant | 519 | 7,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | NAGARAJAN SUNDARAM | director | Withheld for tax | 451 | 64,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Siddiqui Sarah | officer | Award / grant | 408 | 5,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | MCDONOUGH JENNIFER L | officer | Withheld for tax | 391 | 6,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | DeVries James E | officer | Withheld for tax | 272 | 51,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Hall Justin E | officer | Award / grant | 173 | 2,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Subramanian Srinivas | officer | Withheld for tax | 149 | 7,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Siddiqui Sarah | officer | Withheld for tax | 117 | 5,088 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-03-27 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-02-06 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-05 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2024-06-14 | 2024-05-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-02-05 | 2024-01-10 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.