Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.50 · now $3.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NB has typically landed between $2.60 and $5.39 — a range of −25.7% to +54.1% from the issuance price $3.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
843 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-03-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.39 (-3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.95–$3.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.6–$5.39
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-14 | −47.4% | −49.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-13 | −47.2% | −47.9% | +3.1% |
| 2025-10-15 | −44.0% | −44.0% | +0.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-09-11 | +118.7% | +0.0% | +118.7% |
| 2025-09-10 | +118.7% | +0.0% | +118.7% |
| 2025-09-12 | +114.4% | +0.0% | +114.4% |
843 overlapping windows · 2023-03-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
33 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Shah Neal S. | officer | Award / grant | 114,007 | 114,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Smith Mark A. | director | Award / grant | 293,160 | 293,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Cleave Ernest M. | officer | Award / grant | 97,720 | 97,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Honan Scott | officer | Award / grant | 162,866 | 162,866 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Kehler Dean C | director | Exercise | 78,003 | 212,583 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Smith Mark A. | director | Exercise | 46,801 | 2,318,819 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Shah Neal S. | officer | Exercise | 9,361 | 75,032 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Shah Neal S. | officer | Exercise | 9,361 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Smith Mark A. | director | Exercise | 46,801 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | Kehler Dean C | director | Exercise | 78,003 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Fulton Anthony W | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | BELING DAVID COATES | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Guerrero-Mahon Nilsa | director | Award / grant | 55,000 | 55,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Honan Scott | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Kehler Dean C | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Maselli Michael G. | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Smith Mark A. | director | Award / grant | 375,000 | 375,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Oliver Peter Robert | director | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Shah Neal S. | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Sims James T. | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-18 | Cleave Ernest M. | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | BELING DAVID COATES | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Honan Scott | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Morris Michael James | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Sims James T. | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Smith Mark A. | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Guerrero-Mahon Nilsa | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Shah Neal S. | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Oliver Peter Robert | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Maselli Michael G. | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Kehler Dean C | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-20 | Maselli Michael G. | director | Other acquisition | 323,085 | 613,081 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-20 | Maselli Michael G. | director | Other acquisition | 323,085 | 239,996 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.