Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.35 · now $2.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, NA has typically landed between $1.37 and $3.84 — a range of −41.9% to +63.4% from the issuance price $2.35.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,022 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-07-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where NA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.35 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.15 (-8.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.74–$2.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.37–$3.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,022 windows spanning 2022-07-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-03-25 | −77.8% | −78.5% | +10.9% |
| 2024-03-22 | −76.6% | −76.6% | +20.6% |
| 2024-03-26 | −76.4% | −77.9% | +14.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-20 | +292.9% | −7.4% | +292.9% |
| 2024-09-05 | +250.0% | −2.7% | +250.0% |
| 2024-08-29 | +219.9% | +0.0% | +219.9% |
1,022 overlapping windows · 2022-07-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−9.1%
n=4
Feb
25%
+10.0%
n=4
Mar
25%
−14.6%
n=4
Apr
50%
−22.5%
n=4
May
50%
+24.0%
n=4
Jun
25%
+29.6%
n=4
Jul
0%
−19.9%
n=4
Aug
20%
−17.7%
n=5
Sep
80%
+23.2%
n=5
Oct
0%
−17.0%
n=4
Nov
50%
+18.2%
n=4
Dec
50%
−2.7%
n=4
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 3,165 @ $2.22 | $7K | −10.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,651 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $2.25 | $7K | −8.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $2.31 | $2K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 37,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $2.31 | $2K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 36,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $2.25 | $2K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $2.25 | $2K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $2.25 | $2K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 33,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | PECK MICHAEL D | officer | Purchase | 0 @ $22.71 | $10 | ownership Δ n/a | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | First Trust Capital Management L.P. | other | Purchase | 0 @ $22.71 | $10 | ownership Δ n/a | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-23 | CHAD EISENBERG | officer | Purchase | 0 @ $22.71 | $10 | ownership Δ n/a | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $2.01 | $2K | −2.4% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 900 @ $2.01 | $2K | −2.0% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,268 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 600 @ $2.01 | $1K | −1.5% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,116 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 600 @ $2.01 | $1K | −1.5% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 500 @ $2.01 | $1K | −1.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,668 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 400 @ $2.01 | $804 | −0.9% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,038 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 300 @ $2.01 | $603 | −0.7% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 300 @ $2.01 | $603 | −0.6% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 300 @ $2.01 | $603 | −0.6% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,076 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 300 @ $2.01 | $603 | −0.6% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 300 @ $2.01 | $603 | −0.7% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 300 @ $2.01 | $603 | −0.7% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,676 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 300 @ $2.01 | $603 | −0.7% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,668 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 208 @ $2.01 | $418 | −0.5% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,438 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 200 @ $2.01 | $402 | −0.4% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 200 @ $2.01 | $402 | −0.4% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,876 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 200 @ $2.01 | $402 | −0.4% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 200 @ $2.01 | $402 | −0.5% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,916 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 200 @ $2.01 | $402 | −0.4% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,976 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 200 @ $2.01 | $402 | −0.5% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 200 @ $2.01 | $402 | −0.5% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 200 @ $2.01 | $402 | −0.5% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.04 | $204 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,916 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.3% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,816 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,268 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,730 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,630 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,276 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 100 @ $2.01 | $201 | −0.3% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,116 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 70 @ $2.01 | $141 | −0.2% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,968 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 54 @ $2.01 | $109 | −0.1% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 52 @ $2.01 | $105 | −0.1% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,116 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 48 @ $2.01 | $96 | −0.1% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 46 @ $2.01 | $92 | −0.1% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 46 @ $2.01 | $92 | −0.1% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,178 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 30 @ $2.01 | $60 | −0.1% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 23 @ $2.01 | $46 | −0.0% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,224 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 23 @ $2.01 | $46 | −0.0% of holding | +30.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 500 @ $2.70 | $1K | −1.0% of holding | +32.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,316 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 500 @ $2.66 | $1K | −1.0% of holding | +32.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,816 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 600 @ $2.77 | $2K | −1.1% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 500 @ $2.70 | $1K | −1.0% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 500 @ $2.70 | $1K | −1.0% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,016 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 500 @ $2.70 | $1K | −1.0% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Hu Nan | director | Sale | 499 @ $2.70 | $1K | −1.0% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
150 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | MARATHON ASSET MANAGEMENT LP | other | Other acquisition | 1,622,251 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | MARATHON ASSET MANAGEMENT LP | other | Other acquisition | 1,622,251 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | McGraner Matt | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,068 | 156,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Mitts Brian | director | Withheld for tax | 1,085 | 74,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Richards Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 680 | 25,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | McGraner Matt | officer | Option exercise | 7,047 | 35,236 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Richards Paul | officer | Option exercise | 1,562 | 7,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | DONDERO JAMES D | director | Option exercise | 7,329 | 36,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Mitts Brian | director | Option exercise | 4,304 | 21,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Mitts Brian | director | Disposition | 646 | 75,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Mitts Brian | director | Option exercise | 4,304 | 75,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | DONDERO JAMES D | director | Option exercise | 7,329 | 269,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Mitts Brian | director | Disposition | 646 | 75,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Mitts Brian | director | Option exercise | 4,304 | 75,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | McGraner Matt | officer | Option exercise | 7,047 | 159,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Richards Paul | officer | Option exercise | 1,562 | 26,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | McGraner Matt | officer | Option exercise | 7,047 | 159,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | Richards Paul | officer | Option exercise | 1,562 | 26,083 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-11 | DONDERO JAMES D | director | Option exercise | 7,329 | 269,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | McGraner Matt | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,667 | 147,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | McGraner Matt | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,317 | 152,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Richards Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,641 | 23,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Good John A | director | Withheld for tax | 1,358 | 4,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Richards Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 719 | 24,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mitts Brian | director | Withheld for tax | 502 | 71,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | McGraner Matt | officer | Option exercise | 7,824 | 46,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Constantino Edward N. | director | Option exercise | 2,202 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | McGraner Matt | officer | Option exercise | 18,758 | 56,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | LAFFER ARTHUR B | director | Option exercise | 2,202 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | DONDERO JAMES D | director | Option exercise | 18,758 | 56,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | DONDERO JAMES D | director | Option exercise | 7,824 | 46,946 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Richards Paul | officer | Option exercise | 4,014 | 12,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | KAVANAUGH SCOTT F | director | Option exercise | 2,202 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Swain Carol | director | Option exercise | 2,202 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Richards Paul | officer | Option exercise | 1,696 | 10,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mitts Brian | director | Option exercise | 3,181 | 19,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mitts Brian | director | Option exercise | 2,202 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Good John A | director | Option exercise | 2,982 | 8,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Wood Catherine D. | director | Option exercise | 2,202 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Mitts Brian | director | Option exercise | 3,181 | 72,585 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.