Issued 2026-09-16 at $202.51 · now $202.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MS has typically landed between $179.31 and $231.26 — a range of −11.5% to +14.2% from the issuance price $202.51.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($202.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $202.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $202.51 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $205.62 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $194.37–$216.87
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $179.31–$231.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-11 | −75.0% | −75.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-10 | −68.0% | −68.0% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-08 | −59.2% | −59.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-26 | +59.0% | −10.6% | +59.0% |
| 2008-11-20 | +58.5% | +0.0% | +79.5% |
| 2009-01-20 | +54.2% | +0.0% | +82.7% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$15.48
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$201.17
- Analyst target · range $215.00–$255.00$241.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$202.51
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | SCHAPIRO MARY L | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $212.06 | $212K | −2.4% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Pizzi Michael A. | officer | Sale | 17,064 @ $215.00 | $3.7M | −11.7% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,871 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-17 | Pizzi Michael A. | officer | Sale | 7,101 @ $216.88 | $1.5M | −5.5% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,770 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-16 | YESHAYA SHARON | officer | Sale | 9,172 @ $222.51 | $2.0M | −100.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | YESHAYA SHARON | officer | Sale | 6,382 @ $222.51 | $1.4M | −4.5% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | GROSSMAN ERIC F | officer | Sale | 5,559 @ $191.50 | $1.1M | −3.2% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,403 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-20 | GROSSMAN ERIC F | officer | Sale | 5,559 @ $190.00 | $1.1M | −3.1% of holding | −3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,962 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-17 | SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A | officer | Sale | 14,690 @ $189.24 | $2.8M | −3.9% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 365,802 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-16 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 33,541 @ $188.37 | $6.3M | −10.3% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 293,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Sale | 13,283 @ $188.38 | $2.5M | −17.5% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,829 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 6,584 @ $187.20 | $1.2M | −2.0% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 327,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 6,353 @ $189.15 | $1.2M | −2.2% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 287,332 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 3,190 @ $191.30 | $610K | −1.1% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,742 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Sale | 2,546 @ $187.25 | $477K | −3.2% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $190.44 | $267K | −0.5% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 285,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 600 @ $192.12 | $115K | −0.2% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 282,142 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Sale | 300 @ $189.05 | $57K | −0.5% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,529 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A | officer | Sale | 32,968 @ $182.61 | $6.0M | −8.4% of holding | −7.5% | +6.1% | 357,342 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-20 | GROSSMAN ERIC F | officer | Sale | 21,555 @ $184.00 | $4.0M | −11.2% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 171,005 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Pizzi Michael A. | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $184.55 | $3.7M | −13.5% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 127,872 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | YESHAYA SHARON | officer | Sale | 15,838 @ $185.77 | $2.9M | −10.5% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 135,304 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 11,430 @ $181.85 | $2.1M | −3.7% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 299,381 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | SMITH CHARLES A | officer | Sale | 8,500 @ $182.08 | $1.5M | −6.7% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 119,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 6,810 @ $184.94 | $1.3M | −2.3% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 284,681 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 5,990 @ $184.13 | $1.1M | −2.0% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 291,491 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 3,700 @ $185.91 | $688K | −1.3% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 280,981 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Sale | 3,521 @ $181.89 | $640K | −4.6% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 73,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 1,900 @ $182.63 | $347K | −0.6% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 297,481 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $184.16 | $313K | −2.3% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 71,027 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Sale | 1,238 @ $185.94 | $230K | −1.8% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 68,788 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Sale | 1,001 @ $184.90 | $185K | −1.4% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 70,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 500 @ $186.60 | $93K | −0.2% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 280,481 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Sale | 400 @ $182.73 | $73K | −0.5% of holding | −4.7% | +10.4% | 72,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | PICK EDWARD | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $164.34 | $16.4M | −14.8% of holding | +3.2% | +9.9% | 574,986 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-17 | SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A | officer | Sale | 29,000 @ $141.13 | $4.1M | −6.8% of holding | +0.9% | +26.6% | 399,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | YESHAYA SHARON | officer | Sale | 25,583 @ $139.81 | $3.6M | −100.0% of holding | +0.9% | +26.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 22,207 @ $140.68 | $3.1M | −51.0% of holding | +0.9% | +26.6% | 21,359 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 21,359 @ $141.28 | $3.0M | −100.0% of holding | +0.9% | +26.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | SMITH CHARLES A | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $140.30 | $2.8M | −14.4% of holding | +0.9% | +26.6% | 119,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | Pizzi Michael A. | officer | Sale | 18,000 @ $140.62 | $2.5M | −11.7% of holding | +0.9% | +26.6% | 136,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-17 | GROSSMAN ERIC F | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $141.12 | $1.7M | −6.0% of holding | +0.9% | +26.6% | 186,420 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-12 | SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A | officer | Sale | 29,013 @ $127.37 | $3.7M | −6.4% of holding | +0.6% | +14.0% | 425,854 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-02 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $120.00 | $4.8M | −10.6% of holding | +1.9% | +17.2% | 335,765 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-02 | Herz Robert H | director | Sale | 800 @ $119.32 | $95K | −0.8% of holding | +1.9% | +17.2% | 96,760 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-15 | GROSSMAN ERIC F | officer | Sale | 10,068 @ $111.65 | $1.1M | −4.8% of holding | +11.1% | +25.0% | 199,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Sale | 8,312 @ $138.06 | $1.1M | −13.1% of holding | −1.4% | +1.1% | 55,249 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A | officer | Sale | 22,111 @ $136.22 | $3.0M | −4.8% of holding | −2.7% | −0.7% | 438,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 18,833 @ $136.07 | $2.6M | −5.3% of holding | −2.7% | −0.7% | 338,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Pizzi Michael A. | officer | Sale | 18,391 @ $136.92 | $2.5M | −11.8% of holding | −2.7% | −0.7% | 137,788 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | AKRAM RAJA | officer | Sale | 17,500 @ $136.01 | $2.4M | −17.7% of holding | −2.7% | −0.7% | 81,440 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A | officer | Sale | 14,520 @ $137.20 | $2.0M | −3.3% of holding | −2.7% | −0.7% | 423,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | GROSSMAN ERIC F | officer | Sale | 13,097 @ $136.20 | $1.8M | −6.2% of holding | −2.7% | −0.7% | 197,444 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 11,887 @ $136.99 | $1.6M | −3.5% of holding | −2.7% | −0.7% | 327,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Sale | 100 @ $137.61 | $14K | −0.0% of holding | −2.7% | −0.7% | 327,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
146 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INC | tenPercentOwner | Disposition | 414,396 | 376,670,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | SCHAPIRO MARY L | director | Gift | 2,325 | 38,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GLOCER THOMAS H | director | Award / grant | 512 | 124,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Award / grant | 369 | 91,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NALLY DENNIS M | director | Award / grant | 345 | 47,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GOOD LYNN J | director | Award / grant | 274 | 3,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Peterson Douglas L. | director | Award / grant | 274 | 11,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BUTLER MEGAN | director | Withheld for tax | 190 | 5,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Herz Robert H | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 102,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | James Erika H | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 13,253 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Leibowitz Shelley B | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 48,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHAPIRO MARY L | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 41,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Miscik Judith A | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 66,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Peterson Douglas L. | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 11,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | BUTLER MEGAN | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 6,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 90,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | WILKINS RAYFORD JR | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 78,269 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | NALLY DENNIS M | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 46,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GLOCER THOMAS H | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 124,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | GOOD LYNN J | director | Award / grant | 1,310 | 3,227 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A | officer | Gift | 8,000 | 380,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Gift | 1,053 | 61,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | YESHAYA SHARON | officer | Gift | 9,172 | 142,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | YESHAYA SHARON | officer | Gift | 9,172 | 9,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | PICK EDWARD | director | Withheld for tax | 33,677 | 666,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,943 | 333,810 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,175 | 388,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | GROSSMAN ERIC F | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,597 | 186,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | YESHAYA SHARON | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,622 | 151,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Pizzi Michael A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,900 | 145,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,935 | 78,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | PICK EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 60,897 | 699,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | GROSSMAN ERIC F | officer | Award / grant | 22,715 | 197,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Award / grant | 52,777 | 360,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A | officer | Award / grant | 32,865 | 406,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | CRAWLEY MANDELL | officer | Award / grant | 9,666 | 83,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Pizzi Michael A. | officer | Award / grant | 16,432 | 153,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | YESHAYA SHARON | officer | Award / grant | 17,399 | 161,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | PICK EDWARD | director | Withheld for tax | 33,731 | 639,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | SAPERSTEIN ANDREW M | officer | Withheld for tax | 26,943 | 307,976 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-12 | $100–250K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-16 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-16 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Steve Cohen | House | sale | 2026-01-14 | 2025-12-17 | $50–100K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.