Issued 2026-09-16 at $144.91 · now $144.91 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MRK has typically landed between $132.37 and $162.57 — a range of −8.7% to +12.2% from the issuance price $144.91.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($144.91) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MRK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $144.91 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $144.91 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $146.97 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $140.22–$153.72
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $132.37–$162.57
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-02-05 | −29.2% | −29.2% | +2.2% |
| 2009-02-09 | −27.3% | −30.5% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-06 | −26.7% | −30.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +25.2% | +0.0% | +25.2% |
| 2009-03-09 | +25.2% | +0.0% | +33.4% |
| 2008-12-01 | +24.2% | +0.0% | +24.2% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$323.7B
market cap
$3.55
EPS (TTM)
36.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$64.9B
'20'25
Net income$18.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$12.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr28.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr34.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.96
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$194.62
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$97.41
- Analyst target · range $100.00–$155.00$142.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$144.91
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+1.1%
n=18
Feb
26%
−1.4%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.8%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.7%
n=19
May
63%
+1.0%
n=19
Jun
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Jul
42%
−0.3%
n=19
Aug
63%
+2.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Oct
44%
+0.5%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.5%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Guindo Chirfi | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $135.00 | $1.4M | −21.5% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,613 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | Zachary Jennifer | director | Sale | 80,315 @ $133.46 | $10.7M | −63.8% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,509 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | DeLuca Richard R. | officer | Sale | 11,099 @ $131.61 | $1.5M | −9.1% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,767 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-12 | DeLuca Richard R. | officer | Sale | 600 @ $132.04 | $79K | −0.5% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 110,167 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | DeLuca Richard R. | officer | Sale | 7,410 @ $131.33 | $973K | −5.5% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 127,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | DeLuca Richard R. | officer | Sale | 5,427 @ $132.35 | $718K | −4.3% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,866 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | DeLuca Richard R. | officer | Sale | 20,784 @ $130.43 | $2.7M | −13.4% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,703 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Guindo Chirfi | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $131.00 | $2.0M | −24.3% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,613 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | DeLuca Richard R. | officer | Sale | 4,945 @ $130.23 | $644K | −3.1% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 155,787 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | DeLuca Richard R. | officer | Sale | 805 @ $131.02 | $105K | −0.5% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,732 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | DeLuca Richard R. | officer | Sale | 300 @ $131.02 | $39K | −0.2% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 155,487 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Williams David Michael | officer | Sale | 34,705 @ $128.77 | $4.5M | −52.3% of holding | +18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Williams David Michael | officer | Sale | 13,542 @ $128.77 | $1.7M | −29.9% of holding | +18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Maraldo David R. | officer | Sale | 9,709 @ $128.72 | $1.2M | −34.8% of holding | +18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Maraldo David R. | officer | Sale | 6,311 @ $128.72 | $812K | −25.7% of holding | +18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Williams David Michael | officer | Sale | 4,600 @ $128.77 | $592K | −12.7% of holding | +18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,716 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Maraldo David R. | officer | Sale | 2,686 @ $128.72 | $346K | −12.9% of holding | +18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Guindo Chirfi | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $121.46 | $1.2M | −14.2% of holding | −0.7% | +1.0% | 60,615 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | Li Dean Y | director | Sale | 10,235 @ $117.52 | $1.2M | −10.0% of holding | +2.7% | +2.9% | 92,035 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-09 | Zachary Jennifer | director | Sale | 56,792 @ $119.15 | $6.8M | −45.2% of holding | +1.3% | +0.9% | 68,916 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-09 | Zachary Jennifer | director | Sale | 38,835 @ $119.15 | $4.6M | −36.0% of holding | +1.3% | +0.9% | 68,916 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-09 | Zachary Jennifer | director | Sale | 25,946 @ $119.15 | $3.1M | −27.4% of holding | +1.3% | +0.9% | 68,916 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-09 | Guindo Chirfi | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $118.41 | $1.2M | −12.4% of holding | +1.3% | +0.9% | 70,615 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | DeLuca Richard R. | officer | Sale | 37,685 @ $120.92 | $4.6M | −19.0% of holding | −2.0% | −3.6% | 160,174 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Oosthuizen Johannes Jacobus | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $121.87 | $1.8M | −41.4% of holding | −2.0% | −3.6% | 21,197 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-06 | Williams David Michael | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $121.91 | $610K | −14.0% of holding | −2.0% | −3.6% | 30,838 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-05 | Guindo Chirfi | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $121.88 | $2.4M | −19.9% of holding | −2.3% | −5.8% | 80,615 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Litchfield Caroline | director | Sale | 41,997 @ $119.61 | $5.0M | −31.8% of holding | −0.1% | −2.5% | 90,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Davis Robert M | director | Sale | 32,462 @ $118.35 | $3.8M | −6.8% of holding | −0.1% | −2.5% | 443,602 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Li Dean Y | director | Sale | 15,087 @ $118.77 | $1.8M | −12.9% of holding | −0.1% | −2.5% | 102,270 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Davis Robert M | director | Sale | 14,972 @ $117.38 | $1.8M | −3.0% of holding | −0.1% | −2.5% | 476,064 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Smart Dalton E. III | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $119.67 | $479K | −27.4% of holding | −0.1% | −2.5% | 10,605 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Smart Dalton E. III | officer | Sale | 2,400 @ $119.67 | $287K | −22.6% of holding | −0.1% | −2.5% | 8,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Downing Cristal N | officer | Sale | 7,085 @ $87.00 | $616K | −100.0% of holding | +11.6% | +23.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Williams David Michael | officer | Sale | 8,614 @ $83.59 | $720K | −26.0% of holding | +23.9% | +31.9% | 24,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | Smart Dalton E. III | officer | Sale | 4,262 @ $82.76 | $353K | −35.4% of holding | −13.6% | −15.9% | 7,778 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Oosthuizen Johannes Jacobus | officer | Sale | 8,500 @ $84.09 | $715K | −21.7% of holding | +19.4% | −4.0% | 30,705 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-13 | Williams David Michael | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $85.34 | $512K | −19.9% of holding | +20.2% | −4.5% | 24,123 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-06 | THULIN INGE G | director | Purchase | 2,833 @ $88.25 | $250K | +2832.9% of holding | +15.7% | −12.4% | 2,933 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Downing Cristal N | officer | Sale | 2,361 @ $88.76 | $210K | −25.0% of holding | +15.7% | −12.4% | 7,085 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | BAKER DOUGLAS M JR | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $88.50 | $1.3M | +1500.0% of holding | +10.2% | −14.0% | 16,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
225 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Zachary Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 41,494 | 112,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Zachary Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 13,433 | 125,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Zachary Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 13,433 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Zachary Jennifer | director | Option exercise | 41,494 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Williams David Michael | officer | Option exercise | 34,705 | 66,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Williams David Michael | officer | Option exercise | 13,542 | 45,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Maraldo David R. | officer | Option exercise | 9,709 | 27,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Maraldo David R. | officer | Option exercise | 6,311 | 24,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Williams David Michael | officer | Option exercise | 4,600 | 36,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Maraldo David R. | officer | Option exercise | 2,686 | 20,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Williams David Michael | officer | Option exercise | 4,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Maraldo David R. | officer | Option exercise | 9,709 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Maraldo David R. | officer | Option exercise | 6,311 | 3,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Maraldo David R. | officer | Option exercise | 2,686 | 5,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Williams David Michael | officer | Option exercise | 13,542 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Williams David Michael | officer | Option exercise | 34,705 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Coe Mary Ellen | director | Award / grant | 233 | 31,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Karsanbhai Surendralal Lanca | director | Award / grant | 126 | 5,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Seidman Christine E | director | Award / grant | 63 | 21,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | LAVIZZO-MOUREY RISA J | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 17,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mayo Stephen | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 14,825 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Rothman Paul | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 34,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | RUSSO PATRICIA F | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 62,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Seidman Christine E | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 21,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | GLOCER THOMAS H | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 110,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Warden Kathy J | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 17,890 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Craig Pamela J. | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 34,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Coe Mary Ellen | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 31,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | BAKER DOUGLAS M JR | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 11,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | THULIN INGE G | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 27,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Karsanbhai Surendralal Lanca | director | Award / grant | 1,853 | 5,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Li Dean Y | director | Award / grant | 19,885 | 19,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Guindo Chirfi | director | Award / grant | 19,402 | 19,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Litchfield Caroline | director | Award / grant | 15,908 | 15,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Litchfield Caroline | director | Award / grant | 46,566 | 46,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Li Dean Y | director | Award / grant | 58,207 | 58,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Larson Betty D | officer | Award / grant | 23,283 | 23,283 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Larson Betty D | officer | Award / grant | 7,954 | 7,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Davis Robert M | director | Award / grant | 47,724 | 47,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Davis Robert M | director | Award / grant | 139,697 | 139,697 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $15–50K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-03-16 | 2026-02-04 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-02-11 | 2026-01-13 | $15–50K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2025-12-15 | 2025-11-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2025-11-10 | 2025-10-27 | $15–50K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Sheri Biggs | House | sale | 2025-10-05 | 2025-03-19 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.