Issued 2026-09-16 at $48.99 · now $48.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MP has typically landed between $37.09 and $65.49 — a range of −24.3% to +33.7% from the issuance price $48.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,546 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($48.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $48.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $48.99 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.96 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $43.06–$54.87
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.09–$65.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,546 windows spanning 2020-06-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-03-19 | −40.3% | −40.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-14 | −39.5% | −47.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-15 | −36.0% | −42.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-07-09 | +136.7% | +0.0% | +136.7% |
| 2020-11-20 | +133.7% | +0.0% | +133.7% |
| 2020-11-05 | +132.0% | −3.9% | +132.0% |
1,546 overlapping windows · 2020-06-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+8.2%
n=6
Feb
83%
+11.9%
n=6
Mar
33%
−5.1%
n=6
Apr
50%
−4.0%
n=6
May
33%
−3.1%
n=6
Jun
50%
+6.8%
n=6
Jul
86%
+13.5%
n=7
Aug
57%
+5.6%
n=7
Sep
29%
−1.9%
n=7
Oct
50%
−3.5%
n=6
Nov
67%
+24.4%
n=6
Dec
50%
+1.1%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Rosenthal Michael Stuart | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $54.30 | $543K | +7.9% of holding | −6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,622 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 136,141 @ $68.65 | $9.3M | −1.2% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,620,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 37,286 @ $70.23 | $2.6M | −0.3% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,756,939 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 11,740 @ $71.31 | $837K | −0.1% of holding | −22.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,794,225 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 48,050 @ $64.56 | $3.1M | −0.4% of holding | −12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,805,965 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-29 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 1,950 @ $65.13 | $127K | −0.0% of holding | −12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,854,015 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 95,114 @ $64.67 | $6.2M | −0.8% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,855,965 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 49,265 @ $66.52 | $3.3M | −0.4% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,995,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 44,117 @ $65.65 | $2.9M | −0.4% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,951,079 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 39,445 @ $67.78 | $2.7M | −0.3% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,044,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 6,710 @ $68.18 | $457K | −0.1% of holding | −16.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,083,906 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 92,236 @ $65.20 | $6.0M | −0.8% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,090,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 23,113 @ $66.06 | $1.5M | −0.2% of holding | −14.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,182,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Rosenthal Michael Stuart | officer | Purchase | 17,000 @ $56.62 | $963K | +1.3% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,333,673 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 93,959 @ $65.31 | $6.1M | −0.8% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,289,194 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 83,229 @ $64.93 | $5.4M | −0.7% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,205,965 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 102,968 @ $65.67 | $6.8M | −0.8% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,383,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 19,844 @ $67.12 | $1.3M | −0.2% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,486,121 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $75.00 | $1.5M | −15.5% of holding | −19.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,017 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-08 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 6,958 @ $75.00 | $522K | −11.4% of holding | −19.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-20 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 259,179 @ $64.03 | $16.6M | −2.0% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,505,965 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-17 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 40,821 @ $64.05 | $2.6M | −0.3% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,765,144 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Sale | 46,000 @ $60.00 | $2.8M | −26.3% of holding | +0.2% | −30.4% | 129,017 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 13,914 @ $60.01 | $835K | −18.6% of holding | −4.6% | −31.0% | 61,053 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 7,823 @ $68.21 | $534K | −9.4% of holding | −15.4% | −44.1% | 74,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 272,600 @ $64.17 | $17.5M | −2.1% of holding | +2.2% | −28.2% | 12,805,965 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 27,400 @ $64.01 | $1.8M | −0.2% of holding | −2.1% | −26.5% | 13,078,565 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Sale | 38,146 @ $60.00 | $2.3M | −19.6% of holding | +1.7% | −13.0% | 156,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 275,561 @ $62.79 | $17.3M | −2.0% of holding | −0.2% | −20.6% | 13,215,404 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 74,638 @ $63.42 | $4.7M | −0.6% of holding | −0.2% | −20.6% | 13,105,965 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 34,801 @ $63.11 | $2.2M | −0.3% of holding | −0.2% | −20.6% | 13,180,603 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 207,691 @ $63.72 | $13.2M | −1.5% of holding | −9.3% | +2.5% | 13,410,385 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-20 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 40,720 @ $64.60 | $2.6M | −0.3% of holding | −9.3% | +2.5% | 13,369,665 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $57.72 | $1.2M | −9.3% of holding | −9.5% | −12.8% | 194,812 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Rosenthal Michael Stuart | officer | Sale | 83,874 @ $71.48 | $6.0M | −5.8% of holding | −9.3% | −19.8% | 1,350,535 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-29 | Rosenthal Michael Stuart | officer | Sale | 52,063 @ $72.56 | $3.8M | −3.9% of holding | −9.3% | −19.8% | 1,298,472 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-29 | Rosenthal Michael Stuart | officer | Sale | 14,063 @ $73.23 | $1.0M | −1.1% of holding | −9.3% | −19.8% | 1,284,409 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-01 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 5,419 @ $60.22 | $326K | −85.5% of holding | +2.7% | −19.7% | 918 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-01 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 700 @ $60.77 | $43K | −76.3% of holding | +2.7% | −19.7% | 218 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-01 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 218 @ $61.62 | $13K | −100.0% of holding | +2.7% | −19.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-01 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 3,937 @ $32.24 | $127K | −31.1% of holding | +93.0% | +48.3% | 8,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 2,401 @ $31.46 | $76K | −27.5% of holding | +93.0% | +48.3% | 6,337 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-26 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 5,523 @ $36.37 | $201K | −7.3% of holding | +74.0% | +38.1% | 69,749 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 5,538 @ $29.96 | $166K | −30.4% of holding | +86.8% | +70.6% | 12,675 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-12 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Sale | 800 @ $29.95 | $24K | −4.2% of holding | +96.0% | +90.7% | 18,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 199,180 @ $27.08 | $5.4M | −1.4% of holding | −32.6% | +234.0% | 13,643,076 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 18,519 @ $27.00 | $500K | −0.1% of holding | −3.2% | +179.6% | 13,842,256 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 396,293 @ $27.03 | $10.7M | −2.8% of holding | +1.6% | +149.0% | 13,860,775 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 95,621 @ $27.04 | $2.6M | −0.7% of holding | −2.8% | +160.5% | 14,257,068 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 161,175 @ $26.94 | $4.3M | −1.1% of holding | +5.2% | +151.6% | 14,352,689 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-18 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 639,294 @ $26.71 | $17.1M | −4.2% of holding | +8.8% | +130.8% | 14,513,864 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 489,918 @ $26.77 | $13.1M | −3.1% of holding | −1.1% | +130.1% | 15,153,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $27.00 | $405K | −6.5% of holding | −1.1% | +130.1% | 214,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Sale | 24,195 @ $25.25 | $611K | −8.8% of holding | +6.8% | +127.6% | 250,905 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Sale | 20,805 @ $26.17 | $544K | −8.3% of holding | +6.8% | +127.6% | 230,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $25.00 | $375K | −5.2% of holding | +6.8% | +127.6% | 275,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Litinsky James H. | director | Sale | 386,223 @ $24.01 | $9.3M | −2.4% of holding | +4.5% | +170.1% | 15,643,076 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | DUCKWORTH CONNIE K | director | Award / grant | 624 | 41,774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | DUCKWORTH CONNIE K | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | MYERS RICHARD B | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lavan Maryanne | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | WEISENBURGER RANDALL J | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | DUCKWORTH CONNIE K | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 41,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | MYERS RICHARD B | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 7,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | WEISENBURGER RANDALL J | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 150,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | DUCKWORTH CONNIE K | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 41,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | MYERS RICHARD B | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 7,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | WEISENBURGER RANDALL J | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 150,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lavan Maryanne | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 23,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lavan Maryanne | director | Option exercise | 3,998 | 23,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | DUCKWORTH CONNIE K | director | Award / grant | 3,038 | 3,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Lavan Maryanne | director | Award / grant | 3,038 | 3,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | WEISENBURGER RANDALL J | director | Award / grant | 3,038 | 3,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | MYERS RICHARD B | director | Award / grant | 3,038 | 3,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | McKnight Andrew A. | director | Award / grant | 3,038 | 3,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | DONALD ARNOLD W | director | Award / grant | 3,038 | 3,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Infuso David Gregory | officer | Withheld for tax | 804 | 48,442 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | DUCKWORTH CONNIE K | director | Award / grant | 725 | 37,152 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Infuso David Gregory | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,198 | 49,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,511 | 175,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,300 | 82,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-14 | Infuso David Gregory | officer | Withheld for tax | 444 | 50,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Litinsky James H. | director | Withheld for tax | 35,053 | 216,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Rosenthal Michael Stuart | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,083 | 1,316,673 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,948 | 178,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,769 | 84,090 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Infuso David Gregory | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,820 | 50,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Litinsky James H. | director | Withheld for tax | 38,238 | 277,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Litinsky James H. | director | Withheld for tax | 26,316 | 251,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,038 | 191,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Rosenthal Michael Stuart | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,619 | 1,325,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,028 | 92,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Corbett Ryan | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,315 | 184,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Hoops Elliot Dean | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,526 | 87,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Infuso David Gregory | officer | Withheld for tax | 581 | 52,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Infuso David Gregory | officer | Award / grant | 3,894 | 51,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-12 | Litinsky James H. | director | Award / grant | 65,422 | 277,766 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.