Issued 2026-09-16 at $181.18 · now $181.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MOD has typically landed between $148.13 and $245.08 — a range of −18.2% to +35.3% from the issuance price $181.18.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($181.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MOD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $181.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $181.18 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $186.76 (+3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $166.83–$206.7
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $148.13–$245.08
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-01-13 | −83.9% | −83.9% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-12 | −81.6% | −81.6% | +1.8% |
| 2009-01-15 | −76.8% | −80.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-06 | +315.7% | +0.0% | +315.7% |
| 2009-03-09 | +273.8% | +0.0% | +310.7% |
| 2009-03-11 | +266.3% | +0.0% | +266.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.5%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Mar
50%
+5.2%
n=20
Apr
60%
+7.1%
n=20
May
60%
+5.1%
n=20
Jun
50%
−1.1%
n=20
Jul
55%
+9.4%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.8%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Oct
50%
−1.2%
n=20
Nov
65%
+4.1%
n=20
Dec
50%
+0.8%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 4,306 @ $180.30 | $776K | −6.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 67,306 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 15,482 @ $297.37 | $4.6M | −18.8% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,743 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 6,732 @ $293.48 | $2.0M | −6.8% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,745 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 4,881 @ $295.42 | $1.4M | −5.5% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,125 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 4,739 @ $294.37 | $1.4M | −5.1% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,006 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 2,368 @ $292.47 | $693K | −2.3% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,477 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 1,380 @ $291.69 | $403K | −1.3% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 101,845 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 1,020 @ $295.06 | $301K | −3.5% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,364 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 900 @ $296.18 | $267K | −1.1% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,225 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 577 @ $286.06 | $165K | −0.6% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,925 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 400 @ $287.35 | $115K | −0.4% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,525 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 200 @ $300.04 | $60K | −0.3% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,343 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 200 @ $298.30 | $60K | −0.3% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,543 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 200 @ $289.20 | $58K | −0.2% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,225 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 123 @ $284.80 | $35K | −0.1% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,502 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Sale | 100 @ $288.08 | $29K | −0.1% of holding | −17.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,425 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | ASHLEMAN ERIC D | director | Sale | 5,939 @ $291.12 | $1.7M | −12.3% of holding | −18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | ASHLEMAN ERIC D | director | Sale | 4,550 @ $286.27 | $1.3M | −7.9% of holding | −18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | ASHLEMAN ERIC D | director | Sale | 4,511 @ $287.45 | $1.3M | −8.5% of holding | −18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 7,167 @ $287.90 | $2.1M | −16.3% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,755 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 6,041 @ $287.00 | $1.7M | −12.1% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 2,804 @ $288.84 | $810K | −7.6% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 2,767 @ $290.11 | $803K | −8.1% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 1,912 @ $285.01 | $545K | −3.6% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,474 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 1,800 @ $290.79 | $523K | −5.8% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 1,511 @ $285.79 | $432K | −2.9% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,963 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Laszlo Arthur Jr. | officer | Sale | 900 @ $295.76 | $266K | −6.7% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,545 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 12,030 @ $280.13 | $3.4M | −17.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,099 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 2,050 @ $281.01 | $576K | −3.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,049 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | WILLIAMS MARSHA C | director | Sale | 12,000 @ $234.71 | $2.8M | −9.8% of holding | +2.6% | −32.6% | 110,653 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 5,097 @ $218.16 | $1.1M | −7.2% of holding | −4.4% | −20.4% | 65,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 4,478 @ $217.15 | $972K | −6.0% of holding | −4.4% | −20.4% | 70,695 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 4,356 @ $221.14 | $963K | −7.3% of holding | −4.4% | −20.4% | 55,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 3,326 @ $220.49 | $733K | −5.3% of holding | −4.4% | −20.4% | 59,988 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 2,284 @ $219.19 | $501K | −3.5% of holding | −4.4% | −20.4% | 63,314 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 54 @ $222.01 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | −4.4% | −20.4% | 55,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Garimella Suresh V | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $184.07 | $202K | −1.4% of holding | +8.5% | −8.6% | 79,856 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Garimella Suresh V | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $150.00 | $165K | −1.3% of holding | +51.8% | +56.1% | 80,956 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Brinker Neil David | director | Sale | 25,025 @ $160.36 | $4.0M | −9.3% of holding | −12.8% | +76.0% | 245,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Brinker Neil David | director | Sale | 6,846 @ $161.31 | $1.1M | −2.8% of holding | −12.8% | +76.0% | 238,312 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 20,868 @ $140.65 | $2.9M | −46.2% of holding | +1.1% | +61.5% | 24,271 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Garimella Suresh V | director | Sale | 6,932 @ $141.10 | $978K | −7.5% of holding | +1.1% | +61.5% | 85,361 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Sale | 4,305 @ $141.89 | $611K | −17.7% of holding | +1.1% | +61.5% | 19,966 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Garimella Suresh V | director | Sale | 3,005 @ $141.84 | $426K | −3.5% of holding | +1.1% | +61.5% | 82,356 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Garimella Suresh V | director | Sale | 1,547 @ $140.30 | $217K | −1.6% of holding | +1.1% | +61.5% | 92,293 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Garimella Suresh V | director | Sale | 1,520 @ $135.22 | $206K | −1.6% of holding | +1.1% | +61.5% | 94,740 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Garimella Suresh V | director | Sale | 900 @ $136.54 | $123K | −0.9% of holding | +1.1% | +61.5% | 93,840 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Garimella Suresh V | director | Sale | 300 @ $142.81 | $43K | −0.4% of holding | +1.1% | +61.5% | 82,056 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | WILLIAMS MARSHA C | director | Sale | 25,761 @ $134.77 | $3.5M | −17.6% of holding | +10.4% | +54.5% | 120,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $140.00 | $3.5M | −37.4% of holding | −6.6% | +32.1% | 41,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 9,640 @ $141.59 | $1.4M | −18.7% of holding | −6.6% | +32.1% | 41,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 5,782 @ $140.65 | $813K | −10.1% of holding | −6.6% | +32.1% | 51,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 19,466 @ $130.26 | $2.5M | −21.1% of holding | −0.9% | +27.1% | 72,855 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 17,136 @ $128.26 | $2.2M | −14.3% of holding | −0.9% | +27.1% | 102,306 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 11,996 @ $125.00 | $1.5M | −8.1% of holding | −0.9% | +27.1% | 135,585 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 9,985 @ $129.15 | $1.3M | −9.8% of holding | −0.9% | +27.1% | 92,321 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 9,096 @ $126.76 | $1.2M | −6.7% of holding | −0.9% | +27.1% | 126,489 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 5,260 @ $131.16 | $690K | −7.2% of holding | −0.9% | +27.1% | 67,595 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 5,100 @ $127.87 | $652K | −4.0% of holding | −0.9% | +27.1% | 121,389 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $125.00 | $188K | −1.2% of holding | −0.9% | +27.1% | 119,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
114 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Option exercise | 1,988 | 71,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Option exercise | 928 | 69,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Option exercise | 2,353 | 68,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Option exercise | 3,779 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Option exercise | 1,706 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Option exercise | 4,090 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | ASHLEMAN ERIC D | director | Award / grant | 812 | 43,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | LOWE ALAN S | director | Award / grant | 812 | 2,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Bendza Gary Mark | director | Award / grant | 812 | 1,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | WILLIAMS MARSHA C | director | Award / grant | 1,389 | 112,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wilson David J. | director | Award / grant | 812 | 9,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Garimella Suresh V | director | Award / grant | 812 | 80,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Harper Katherine Carolyn | director | Award / grant | 812 | 17,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Yan Christine Y | director | Award / grant | 812 | 75,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Brinker Neil David | director | Withheld for tax | 3,721 | 365,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,476 | 93,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Withheld for tax | 663 | 53,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 566 | 104,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Laszlo Arthur Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 436 | 13,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Brinker Neil David | director | Withheld for tax | 87,517 | 368,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Withheld for tax | 34,721 | 95,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,573 | 68,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,310 | 105,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Laszlo Arthur Jr. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,753 | 13,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Roth Erin Jennifer | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,221 | 7,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Award / grant | 28,318 | 118,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Award / grant | 39,575 | 83,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Award / grant | 73,873 | 129,842 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Laszlo Arthur Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 10,838 | 18,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Brinker Neil David | director | Award / grant | 215,464 | 456,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Roth Erin Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 5,249 | 9,784 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Roth Erin Jennifer | officer | Award / grant | 668 | 4,535 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Award / grant | 1,306 | 55,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Brinker Neil David | director | Award / grant | 5,534 | 240,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Patten Jeremy Michael | officer | Award / grant | 583 | 3,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Laszlo Arthur Jr. | officer | Award / grant | 591 | 7,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Agen Brian Jon | officer | Award / grant | 556 | 90,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Brinker Neil David | director | Withheld for tax | 2,882 | 235,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Lucareli Michael B | officer | Withheld for tax | 915 | 54,663 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | McGinnis Eric S | officer | Withheld for tax | 463 | 44,127 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.