Issued 2026-09-25 at $516.56 · now $516.56 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, MDGL has typically landed between $411.49 and $670.47 — a range of −20.3% to +29.8% from the issuance price $516.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,913 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-02-06 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($516.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MDGL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $516.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $516.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $514.39 (-0.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $463.47–$565.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $411.49–$670.47
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,913 windows spanning 2007-02-06 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-10-15 | −78.9% | −78.9% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-05 | −78.4% | −78.4% | +0.0% |
| 2015-10-16 | −78.3% | −78.3% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-12-14 | +415.0% | +0.0% | +415.2% |
| 2022-12-16 | +380.8% | +0.0% | +380.8% |
| 2022-12-15 | +376.1% | +0.0% | +378.3% |
4,913 overlapping windows · 2007-02-06 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Effect of Resmetirom on Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Well-compensated NASH Cirrhosis (MAESTRO-NASH-OUTCOMES) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate Safety and Biomarkers of Resmetirom (MGL-3196) in Patients With Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), MAESTRO-NAFLD-Open-Label-Extension (MAESTRO-NAFLD-OLE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MGL-3196 (Resmetirom) in Patients With NASH and Fibrosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study to Evaluate Resmetirom in Post-Liver Transplant Patients With MASH (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
47%
+1.4%
n=19
Feb
63%
+2.3%
n=19
Mar
30%
−7.1%
n=20
Apr
55%
+7.5%
n=20
May
30%
−2.4%
n=20
Jun
45%
+2.9%
n=20
Jul
30%
+0.4%
n=20
Aug
50%
+2.9%
n=20
Sep
45%
+6.6%
n=20
Oct
47%
−0.9%
n=19
Nov
63%
+6.4%
n=19
Dec
53%
+23.1%
n=19
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 1,539 @ $544.02 | $837K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 198,627 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 1,202 @ $542.60 | $652K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 200,166 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 761 @ $544.83 | $415K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 197,866 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 687 @ $540.59 | $371K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 201,736 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 368 @ $541.64 | $199K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 201,368 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 218 @ $535.94 | $117K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 202,583 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 160 @ $537.62 | $86K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 202,423 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 120 @ $546.38 | $66K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 197,746 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 106 @ $534.06 | $57K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 202,801 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 60 @ $533.09 | $32K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 202,907 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 1,040 @ $536.11 | $558K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 205,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 644 @ $535.27 | $345K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 206,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 640 @ $537.17 | $344K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 204,729 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 520 @ $538.30 | $280K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 204,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 522 @ $530.23 | $277K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 208,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 512 @ $533.09 | $273K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 207,449 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 505 @ $540.19 | $273K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 203,489 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 396 @ $534.20 | $212K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 207,053 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 362 @ $541.65 | $196K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 203,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 368 @ $531.99 | $196K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 207,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 347 @ $529.27 | $184K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 208,851 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 215 @ $539.03 | $116K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 203,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 160 @ $542.55 | $87K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 202,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 131 @ $527.88 | $69K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 209,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Kelley Shannon T | officer | Sale | 664 @ $514.97 | $342K | −5.5% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,474 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 680 @ $547.70 | $372K | −0.3% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,810 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 545 @ $544.71 | $297K | −0.3% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 280 @ $555.05 | $155K | −0.1% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,329 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 275 @ $545.71 | $150K | −0.1% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,759 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 269 @ $547.08 | $147K | −0.1% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,490 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 153 @ $550.01 | $84K | −0.1% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,610 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 140 @ $542.75 | $76K | −0.1% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,689 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 110 @ $543.79 | $60K | −0.1% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,579 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 47 @ $548.87 | $26K | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,763 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-20 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 1 @ $550.72 | $551 | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,609 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Soergel David | officer | Sale | 1,042 @ $495.74 | $517K | −9.4% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,033 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 1,497 @ $517.59 | $775K | −6.1% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,877 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 782 @ $518.76 | $406K | −3.4% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 723 @ $516.87 | $374K | −2.9% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,374 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 657 @ $515.92 | $339K | −2.6% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,097 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 610 @ $511.40 | $312K | −2.2% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,576 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 439 @ $512.50 | $225K | −1.7% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,137 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 343 @ $514.67 | $177K | −1.3% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,754 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 320 @ $508.24 | $163K | −1.2% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,337 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 151 @ $510.36 | $77K | −0.6% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,186 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 80 @ $519.98 | $42K | −0.4% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,015 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 40 @ $512.97 | $21K | −0.2% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,097 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Levy Richard S | director | Sale | 40 @ $506.68 | $20K | −0.1% of holding | −0.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,657 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | Soergel David | officer | Sale | 844 @ $515.90 | $435K | −7.1% of holding | −4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,075 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Sibold William John | director | Sale | 1,663 @ $431.94 | $718K | −1.0% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 161,829 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Dier Mardi | director | Sale | 646 @ $431.94 | $279K | −4.5% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 13,826 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Taub Rebecca | director | Sale | 491 @ $431.94 | $212K | −0.1% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 452,213 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Huntsman Carole | officer | Sale | 419 @ $431.94 | $181K | −3.2% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 12,692 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Dier Mardi | director | Sale | 420 @ $426.86 | $179K | −3.0% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 13,366 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Kelley Shannon T | officer | Sale | 360 @ $431.94 | $155K | −2.9% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 12,138 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Dier Mardi | director | Sale | 160 @ $434.20 | $69K | −1.2% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 12,690 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Dier Mardi | director | Sale | 160 @ $429.00 | $69K | −1.2% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 13,126 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Dier Mardi | director | Sale | 120 @ $430.90 | $52K | −0.9% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 12,966 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Dier Mardi | director | Sale | 116 @ $432.56 | $50K | −0.9% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 12,850 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Dier Mardi | director | Sale | 80 @ $436.69 | $35K | −0.6% of holding | +20.0% | +9.9% | 12,530 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | REED JOHN C | director | Award / grant | 647 | 647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | REED JOHN C | director | Award / grant | 1,078 | 1,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Sibold William John | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Sibold William John | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 211,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Sibold William John | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 211,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 908 | 203,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 1,532 | 1,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | FOUSE JACQUALYN A | director | Award / grant | 766 | 766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Levy Richard S | director | Award / grant | 454 | 22,469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Daly James M | director | Award / grant | 766 | 766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Brennan Daniel J. | director | Award / grant | 681 | 681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Taub Rebecca | director | Award / grant | 454 | 452,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Daly James M | director | Award / grant | 454 | 3,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Levy Richard S | director | Award / grant | 766 | 766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 908 | 1,948,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Brennan Daniel J. | director | Award / grant | 404 | 1,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Taub Rebecca | director | Award / grant | 766 | 766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | FOUSE JACQUALYN A | director | Award / grant | 454 | 1,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Soergel David | officer | Award / grant | 4,374 | 11,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Sibold William John | director | Award / grant | 14,995 | 163,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Soergel David | officer | Award / grant | 5,467 | 5,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Huntsman Carole | officer | Award / grant | 4,986 | 4,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kelley Shannon T | officer | Award / grant | 4,017 | 12,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Dier Mardi | director | Award / grant | 5,215 | 14,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Huntsman Carole | officer | Award / grant | 3,989 | 13,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Dier Mardi | director | Award / grant | 6,519 | 6,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kelley Shannon T | officer | Award / grant | 5,022 | 5,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Sibold William John | director | Award / grant | 18,743 | 18,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Levy Richard S | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 27,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Levy Richard S | director | Option exercise | 2,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Levy Richard S | director | Option exercise | 4,000 | 25,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Levy Richard S | director | Option exercise | 4,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Thakkar Rita | officer | Award / grant | 2,398 | 2,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Thakkar Rita | officer | Award / grant | 1,826 | 1,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | FRIEDMAN PAUL A | director | Option exercise | 24,520 | 211,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Taub Rebecca | director | Option exercise | 18,410 | 473,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | FRIEDMAN PAUL A | director | Option exercise | 280 | 187,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Taub Rebecca | director | Option exercise | 240 | 455,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | FRIEDMAN PAUL A | director | Option exercise | 280 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | FRIEDMAN PAUL A | director | Option exercise | 24,520 | 280 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.