Issued 2026-08-13 at $536.20 · now $507.37 (2026-08-13, −5.4% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, MDGL has typically landed between $427.10 and $696.05 — a range of −20.3% to +29.8% from the issuance price $536.20.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,883 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-02-06 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($536.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MDGL has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $536.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $507.37 (-5.4%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $533.31 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $480.51–$586.11
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $427.1–$696.05
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-10-15 | −78.9% | −78.9% | +0.0% |
| 2009-02-05 | −78.4% | −78.4% | +0.0% |
| 2015-10-16 | −78.3% | −78.3% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-12-14 | +415.0% | +0.0% | +415.2% |
| 2022-12-16 | +380.8% | +0.0% | +380.8% |
| 2022-12-15 | +376.1% | +0.0% | +378.3% |
4,883 overlapping windows · 2007-02-06 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Effect of Resmetirom on Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Well-compensated NASH Cirrhosis (MAESTRO-NASH-OUTCOMES) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate Safety and Biomarkers of Resmetirom (MGL-3196) in Patients With Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD), MAESTRO-NAFLD-Open-Label-Extension (MAESTRO-NAFLD-OLE) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- January 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MGL-3196 (Resmetirom) in Patients With NASH and Fibrosis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study to Evaluate Resmetirom in Post-Liver Transplant Patients With MASH (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.