Issued 2026-09-16 at $61.57 · now $61.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MBX has typically landed between $42.27 and $101.03 — a range of −31.4% to +64.1% from the issuance price $61.57.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
481 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($61.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where MBX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $61.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $61.57 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $64.24 (+4.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.26–$74.23
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $42.27–$101.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-12-26 | −53.1% | −54.8% | +0.0% |
| 2024-12-24 | −49.7% | −54.1% | +1.5% |
| 2024-12-23 | −49.5% | −51.9% | +6.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-08 | +126.6% | +0.0% | +126.6% |
| 2026-06-09 | +104.4% | +0.0% | +120.0% |
| 2026-06-05 | +103.9% | −4.2% | +104.8% |
481 overlapping windows · 2024-09-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Sale | 370 @ $65.77 | $24K | −2.5% of holding | −13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,399 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Sale | 55,000 @ $38.38 | $2.1M | −78.8% of holding | −27.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,769 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Sale | 15,003 @ $38.30 | $575K | −50.4% of holding | −27.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,769 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Sale | 607 @ $29.54 | $18K | −0.1% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 727,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Sale | 231 @ $29.54 | $7K | −1.5% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,769 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Purchase | 18,500 @ $28.41 | $526K | +4.0% of holding | +12.0% | +97.0% | 486,777 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $13.64 | $273K | +4.5% of holding | +86.9% | +129.4% | 468,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $13.25 | $265K | ownership Δ n/a | +93.5% | +144.9% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Heron Patrick J | director | Purchase | 666,666 @ $18.00 | $12.0M | +14.6% of holding | −3.9% | +57.7% | 5,219,440 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Pescovitz Ora H. | director | Purchase | 7,693 @ $5.89 | $45K | +46.2% of holding | +88.4% | +138.0% | 24,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 94,100 @ $10.84 | $1.0M | +14.4% of holding | −15.7% | +16.9% | 747,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | GORDON CARL L | director | Purchase | 94,100 @ $10.84 | $1.0M | +14.4% of holding | −15.7% | +16.9% | 747,887 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | GORDON CARL L | director | Purchase | 49,070 @ $10.84 | $532K | +1.5% of holding | −15.7% | +16.9% | 3,255,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 49,070 @ $10.84 | $532K | +1.5% of holding | −15.7% | +16.9% | 3,255,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | GORDON CARL L | director | Purchase | 29,540 @ $9.85 | $291K | +0.9% of holding | −11.1% | +33.8% | 3,205,930 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 29,540 @ $9.85 | $291K | +0.9% of holding | −11.1% | +33.8% | 3,205,930 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | GORDON CARL L | director | Purchase | 17,962 @ $9.90 | $178K | +0.6% of holding | −11.1% | +33.8% | 3,176,390 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-14 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 17,962 @ $9.90 | $178K | +0.6% of holding | −11.1% | +33.8% | 3,176,390 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $10.69 | $535K | +12.6% of holding | −1.3% | +1.0% | 448,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
41 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Smither John W | director | Award / grant | 28,000 | 28,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Smither John W | director | Award / grant | 130,000 | 130,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 71,000 | 82,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 331,000 | 331,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Pescovitz Ora H. | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Mathers Edward T | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Aynechi Tiba | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Heron Patrick J | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Ryder Steven | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Stelzer Laurie | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Option exercise | 55,000 | 69,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Option exercise | 15,003 | 29,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Option exercise | 15,003 | 30,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Option exercise | 55,000 | 194,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 11,938 | 11,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 74,249 | 74,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Option exercise | 28,768 | 728,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Option exercise | 28,768 | 91,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Award / grant | 35,250 | 699,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Bartram Richard | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Bartram Richard | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Azoulay Salomon | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Award / grant | 164,500 | 164,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-20 | Stelzer Laurie | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-22 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 8,000 | 8,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-06 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Option exercise | 182,859 | 664,256 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-24 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Option exercise | 182,859 | 129,708 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Mathers Edward T | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Aynechi Tiba | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | CORNELIUS JAMES M | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Ryder Steven | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Pescovitz Ora H. | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-05 | Heron Patrick J | director | Award / grant | 16,000 | 16,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Hoerter Steven L. | director | Award / grant | 32,000 | 32,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Bartram Richard | officer | Award / grant | 95,000 | 95,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Hawryluk P. Kent | director | Award / grant | 243,000 | 243,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.