MAIN · TickerCove

MAINMain Street Capital CorporationFinancial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $56.24 · now $56.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, MAIN has typically landed between $50.91 and $61.49 — a range of −9.5% to +9.3% from the issuance price $56.24.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,745 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-10-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($56.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$56.24 · 58% of range

$48.62 low$61.82 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.1%

typical move · IQR 8.1%

−9.5%worst (p90)+9.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where MAIN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $56.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $56.24 (+0.0%)
typical $57.44 (+2.1%)
middle 50% $55.16–$59.73
90% range $50.91–$61.49

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,745 windows spanning 2007-10-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−64.1%	−64.1%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−61.7%	−61.7%	+0.1%
2020-02-20	−59.6%	−61.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03	+46.3%	+0.0%	+56.5%
2020-03-18	+43.8%	−6.8%	+55.1%
2020-04-22	+43.5%	+0.0%	+47.1%

4,745 overlapping windows · 2007-10-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

58%

+2.0%

n=19

Feb

68%

+1.6%

n=19

Mar

58%

−1.6%

n=19

Apr

74%

+3.8%

n=19

May

37%

+0.1%

n=19

Jun

89%

+2.5%

n=19

Jul

74%

+2.9%

n=19

Aug

68%

+1.9%

n=19

Sep

42%

−1.4%

n=19

Oct

56%

+0.7%

n=18

Nov

89%

+4.4%

n=19

Dec

68%

+1.6%

n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	Morris Jesse E	director	Sale	35,000 @ $58.55	$2.0M	−13.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	232,568	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-13	McHugh Ryan	officer	Purchase	2,050 @ $59.04	$121K	+10.0% of holding	−2.6%	not yet — horizon still open	22,647	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13	McHugh Ryan	officer	Purchase	500 @ $59.09	$30K	+2.5% of holding	−2.6%	not yet — horizon still open	20,597	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-30	Beauvais Jason B	officer	Sale	6,830 @ $51.73	$353K	−3.4% of holding	+6.1%	not yet — horizon still open	196,185	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

296 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Beauvais Jason B	officer	Gift	126	196,502	Form 4
2026-08-14	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	1,056	1,677,677	Form 4
2026-08-14	Hyzak Dwayne L.	director	Other acquisition	407	508,681	Form 4
2026-08-14	Griffin Jon Kevin	director	Other acquisition	231	74,914	Form 4
2026-08-14	JACKSON JOHN EARL	director	Other acquisition	226	85,809	Form 4
2026-08-14	SOLCHER STEPHEN B	director	Other acquisition	186	52,814	Form 4
2026-08-14	Lane Brian E.	director	Other acquisition	172	53,322	Form 4
2026-08-14	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	156	35,263	Form 4
2026-08-14	Beauvais Jason B	officer	Other acquisition	98	196,628	Form 4
2026-08-14	SHIVE DUNIA A	director	Other acquisition	97	27,582	Form 4
2026-08-14	JACKSON JOHN EARL	director	Other acquisition	88	85,583	Form 4
2026-08-14	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	81	70,421	Form 4
2026-08-14	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	81	71,171	Form 4
2026-08-14	Lane Brian E.	director	Other acquisition	64	53,150	Form 4
2026-08-14	Magdol David L.	officer	Other acquisition	61	441,084	Form 4
2026-08-14	Magdol David L.	officer	Other acquisition	58	441,142	Form 4
2026-08-14	McHugh Ryan	officer	Other acquisition	37	22,684	Form 4
2026-08-14	McHugh Ryan	officer	Other acquisition	31	22,715	Form 4
2026-08-14	Griffin Jon Kevin	director	Other acquisition	20	74,683	Form 4
2026-08-14	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	13	1,676,621	Form 4
2026-08-14	JACKSON JOHN EARL	director	Other acquisition	9	2,055	Form 4
2026-07-15	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	1,172	1,676,609	Form 4
2026-07-15	Hyzak Dwayne L.	director	Other acquisition	451	508,275	Form 4
2026-07-15	Griffin Jon Kevin	director	Other acquisition	253	74,663	Form 4
2026-07-15	JACKSON JOHN EARL	director	Other acquisition	247	85,495	Form 4
2026-07-15	SOLCHER STEPHEN B	director	Other acquisition	203	52,628	Form 4
2026-07-15	Lane Brian E.	director	Other acquisition	188	53,086	Form 4
2026-07-15	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	174	35,106	Form 4
2026-07-15	Beauvais Jason B	officer	Other acquisition	109	196,530	Form 4
2026-07-15	SHIVE DUNIA A	director	Other acquisition	106	27,485	Form 4
2026-07-15	JACKSON JOHN EARL	director	Other acquisition	97	85,248	Form 4
2026-07-15	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	90	70,340	Form 4
2026-07-15	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	90	71,091	Form 4
2026-07-15	Lane Brian E.	director	Other acquisition	72	52,897	Form 4
2026-07-15	Magdol David L.	officer	Other acquisition	67	440,959	Form 4
2026-07-15	Magdol David L.	officer	Other acquisition	64	441,023	Form 4
2026-07-15	McHugh Ryan	officer	Other acquisition	41	20,063	Form 4
2026-07-15	McHugh Ryan	officer	Other acquisition	34	20,097	Form 4
2026-07-15	Griffin Jon Kevin	director	Other acquisition	22	74,409	Form 4
2026-07-15	FOSTER VINCENT D	director	Other acquisition	14	1,675,436	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i