LILALiberty Latin America Ltd.Communication Services · Telecommunications Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.74 · now $8.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, LILA has typically landed between $7.24 and $10.37 — a range of −17.1% to +18.6% from the issuance price $8.74.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,797 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-07-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where LILA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$7.24worst · -17.1%$10.37best · +18.6%
  • now $8.74 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.79 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.12–$9.45
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.24–$10.37
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,797 windows spanning 2015-07-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−50.4%−54.3%+0.0%
2020-02-13−49.3%−49.3%+10.9%
2020-02-18−47.5%−49.6%+10.3%
3 best
2026-06-18+50.6%+0.0%+65.0%
2026-06-04+48.1%−5.7%+55.6%
2026-06-05+45.7%−6.6%+54.1%

2,797 overlapping windows · 2015-07-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
+1.9%
n=11
Feb
45%
−0.9%
n=11
Mar
36%
−1.2%
n=11
Apr
55%
+0.6%
n=11
May
45%
−0.1%
n=11
Jun
55%
+3.7%
n=11
Jul
55%
+3.9%
n=11
Aug
58%
−1.8%
n=12
Sep
42%
−3.0%
n=12
Oct
55%
+1.7%
n=11
Nov
27%
−3.7%
n=11
Dec
45%
−1.9%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$42026-09-02: 1 insider purchase, $6.6M — DE ANGOITIA ALFONSO2026-09-01: 2 insider purchases, $954K — MALONE JOHN C, DE ANGOITIA ALFONSO2026-08-31: 1 insider purchase, $3.1M — DE ANGOITIA ALFONSO2026-08-28: 1 insider purchase, $439K — MALONE JOHN C2026-08-14: 1 insider purchase, $57K — MALONE JOHN C2026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $240K — MALONE JOHN C2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $368K — BRACKEN CHARLES H R2026-08-11: 2 insider purchases, $556K — BRACKEN CHARLES H R, MALONE JOHN C2026-08-10: 2 insider purchases, $1.2M — MALONE JOHN C …2026-08-07: 2 insider purchases, $1.8M — MALONE JOHN C …2026-06-26: 2 insider purchases, $224K — MALONE JOHN C, WINTER JOHN M2026-06-25: 3 insider purchases, $4.3M — MALONE JOHN C, FRIES MICHAEL T …2026-06-24: 2 insider purchases, $4.2M — MALONE JOHN C, BRACKEN CHARLES H R2026-06-23: 4 insider purchases, $12.2M — MALONE JOHN C, BRACKEN CHARLES H R …2026-06-22: 3 insider purchases, $11.7M — MALONE JOHN C …2026-06-18: 3 insider purchases, $1.5M — Nair Balan, PADDICK BRENDAN J …2026-05-22: 2 insider sales, $107.1M — MALONE JOHN C …2026-05-22: 2 insider purchases, $107.1M — MALONE JOHN C …2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $161K — Nair Balan2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $759K2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $107.2M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $107.1M2026-06: 17 open-market purchases, $34.1M2026-08: 10 open-market purchases, $7.3M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $368K2026-09: 3 open-market purchases, $7.5M↑ buys↓ salesdirector DE ANGOITIA ALFONSO — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-09-01, filed same daydirector DE ANGOITIA ALFONSO — Purchase on 2026-09-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector DE ANGOITIA ALFONSO — Purchase on 2026-08-31, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-08-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed same daydirector BRACKEN CHARLES H R — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BRACKEN CHARLES H R — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-26, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer WINTER JOHN M — Purchase on 2026-06-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector FRIES MICHAEL T — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 22 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-25, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-24, filed same daydirector BRACKEN CHARLES H R — Purchase on 2026-06-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BRACKEN CHARLES H R — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Nair Balan — Purchase on 2026-06-18, filed 5 days after the tradedirector PADDICK BRENDAN J — Purchase on 2026-06-18, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Nair Balan — Purchase on 2026-06-18, filed 5 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector MALONE JOHN C — Purchase on 2026-05-22, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Nair Balan — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02DE ANGOITIA ALFONSOdirectorPurchase313,104 @ $20.95$6.6M+192.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open476,190Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase69,454 @ $8.50$590K+29.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open306,571Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01DE ANGOITIA ALFONSOdirectorPurchase17,596 @ $20.65$363K+12.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open163,086Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-31DE ANGOITIA ALFONSOdirectorPurchase145,490 @ $21.00$3.1Mownership Δ n/anot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open145,490Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-28MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase51,832 @ $8.48$439K+28.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open237,117Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase6,761 @ $8.50$57K+3.8% of holding+5.5%not yet — horizon still open185,285Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-13MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase28,219 @ $8.50$240K+18.8% of holding+5.9%not yet — horizon still open178,524Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-11BRACKEN CHARLES H RdirectorSale42,975 @ $8.57$368K−100.0% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11BRACKEN CHARLES H RdirectorPurchase17,425 @ $20.93$365K+73.3% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open41,192Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase22,477 @ $8.50$191K+17.6% of holding+3.2%not yet — horizon still open150,305Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase97,955 @ $8.47$830K+327.9% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open127,828Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase15,749 @ $20.40$321K+1.2% of holding+3.0%not yet — horizon still open1,351,126Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase73,455 @ $20.42$1.5M+5.8% of holding+3.1%not yet — horizon still open1,335,377Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-07MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase29,873 @ $8.50$254Kownership Δ n/a+3.1%not yet — horizon still open29,873Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-26MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase17,693 @ $7.00$124K+0.5% of holding+14.9%not yet — horizon still open3,725,813Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-26WINTER JOHN MofficerPurchase5,071 @ $19.67$100K+8.5% of holding+14.9%not yet — horizon still open64,547Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-25MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase336,706 @ $6.96$2.3M+10.0% of holding+10.6%not yet — horizon still open3,708,120Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-25FRIES MICHAEL TdirectorPurchase49,382 @ $20.39$1.0M+49.4% of holding+10.6%not yet — horizon still open149,335Form 4 · filed 22 days after the trade
2026-06-25MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase45,300 @ $20.45$926K+3.7% of holding+10.6%not yet — horizon still open1,261,922Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-24MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase199,350 @ $20.39$4.1M+19.6% of holding+13.2%not yet — horizon still open1,216,622Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-24BRACKEN CHARLES H RdirectorPurchase4,900 @ $20.50$100K+26.0% of holding+13.2%not yet — horizon still open23,767Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-23MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase477,627 @ $20.36$9.7M+88.8% of holding+24.8%not yet — horizon still open1,015,798Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-23MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase400,000 @ $5.92$2.4M+13.5% of holding+24.8%not yet — horizon still open3,371,414Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-23BRACKEN CHARLES H RdirectorPurchase4,900 @ $20.50$100K+35.1% of holding+24.8%not yet — horizon still open18,867Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-23MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase1,474 @ $20.63$30K+0.1% of holding+24.8%not yet — horizon still open1,017,272Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase1,095,072 @ $4.98$5.5M+58.4% of holding+40.1%not yet — horizon still open2,971,414Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase260,299 @ $19.89$5.2M+93.7% of holding+40.1%not yet — horizon still open538,171Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-22MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase224,109 @ $4.96$1.1M+1.1% of holding+40.1%not yet — horizon still open21,397,127Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-18Nair BalandirectorPurchase151,759 @ $4.95$752K+4.9% of holding+50.4%not yet — horizon still open3,276,798Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-18PADDICK BRENDAN JdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $4.88$488K+6.9% of holding+50.4%not yet — horizon still open1,559,542Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-18Nair BalandirectorPurchase13,155 @ $18.95$249K+3.4% of holding+50.4%not yet — horizon still open394,908Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22MALONE JOHN CdirectorSale12,345,404 @ $8.63$106.5M−100.0% of holding+23.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase12,345,404 @ $8.63$106.5M+139.8% of holding+23.9%not yet — horizon still open21,173,018Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22MALONE JOHN CdirectorSale61,059 @ $8.63$527K−100.0% of holding+23.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22MALONE JOHN CdirectorPurchase61,059 @ $8.63$527K+3.4% of holding+23.9%not yet — horizon still open1,876,342Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-08Nair BalandirectorPurchase20,000 @ $8.07$161K+0.6% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open3,125,039Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

264 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30PADDICK BRENDAN JdirectorAward / grant2,5951,986,735Form 4
2026-06-30DE ANGOITIA ALFONSOdirectorAward / grant2,455104,255Form 4
2026-06-30Hussain AamirofficerAward / grant2,500397,087Form 4
2026-06-30NOYES CHRISTOPHER JofficerAward / grant2,500609,911Form 4
2026-06-30Nair BalandirectorAward / grant2,0493,339,201Form 4
2026-06-30WINTER JOHN MofficerAward / grant1,783449,640Form 4
2026-06-30PADDICK BRENDAN JdirectorAward / grant1,2981,560,840Form 4
2026-06-30DE ANGOITIA ALFONSOdirectorAward / grant1,22748,389Form 4
2026-06-30NOYES CHRISTOPHER JofficerWithheld for tax658607,411Form 4
2026-06-30Nair BalandirectorWithheld for tax4493,337,152Form 4
2026-06-30WINTER JOHN MofficerWithheld for tax371447,857Form 4
2026-06-30GOULD PAUL AdirectorAward / grant216392,586Form 4
2026-06-30GOULD PAUL AdirectorAward / grant108338,155Form 4
2026-06-30NOYES CHRISTOPHER JofficerWithheld for tax93609,818Form 4
2026-06-30Nair BalandirectorWithheld for tax543,339,147Form 4
2026-06-30WINTER JOHN MofficerWithheld for tax47449,593Form 4
2026-06-30Nair BalandirectorAward / grant8033,337,601Form 4
2026-06-30Hussain AamirofficerOther acquisition8360,853Form 4
2026-06-30Nair BalandirectorOther acquisition80394,988Form 4
2026-06-30NOYES CHRISTOPHER JofficerAward / grant833608,069Form 4
2026-06-30Hussain AamirofficerAward / grant833394,587Form 4
2026-06-30NOYES CHRISTOPHER JofficerOther acquisition8388,717Form 4
2026-06-30WINTER JOHN MofficerOther acquisition6664,613Form 4
2026-06-30WINTER JOHN MofficerAward / grant663448,228Form 4
2026-06-29Nair BalandirectorOther acquisition60,000501,563Form 4
2026-06-29GOULD PAUL AdirectorOther acquisition60,00068,987Form 4
2026-06-29Nair BalandirectorOther acquisition60,0003,336,798Form 4
2026-06-29GOULD PAUL AdirectorOther acquisition60,000392,370Form 4
2026-06-17Sanchez Daniel E.directorOther acquisition1,9351,935Form 4
2026-06-17WINTER JOHN MofficerOther acquisition6,2986,298Form 4
2026-06-17GOULD PAUL AdirectorOther acquisition1,9351,935Form 4
2026-06-17CURTIS MIRANDAdirectorOther acquisition1,9351,935Form 4
2026-06-17DE ANGOITIA ALFONSOdirectorOther acquisition1,9351,935Form 4
2026-06-17Nair BalandirectorOther acquisition61,93561,935Form 4
2026-06-17WINTER JOHN MofficerOther acquisition11,96211,962Form 4
2026-06-17PADDICK BRENDAN JdirectorOther acquisition1,9351,935Form 4
2026-06-17WINTER JOHN MofficerOther acquisition15,48315,483Form 4
2026-06-17FRIES MICHAEL TdirectorOther acquisition6,1296,129Form 4
2026-06-17BRACKEN CHARLES H RdirectorOther acquisition1,9351,935Form 4
2026-06-17NOYES CHRISTOPHER JofficerOther acquisition14,95314,953Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.