Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.74 · now $10.74 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, KROS has typically landed between $8.29 and $13.77 — a range of −22.8% to +28.3% from the issuance price $10.74.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,596 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-04-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.74) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KROS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.74 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.74 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.84 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.75–$11.92
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.29–$13.77
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,596 windows spanning 2020-04-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-12-11 | −84.8% | −84.8% | +0.0% |
| 2024-12-10 | −81.2% | −81.2% | +3.5% |
| 2024-12-09 | −80.9% | −80.9% | +2.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-27 | +109.2% | −2.8% | +109.2% |
| 2020-07-28 | +85.3% | +0.0% | +115.3% |
| 2023-12-11 | +81.4% | +0.0% | +81.8% |
1,596 overlapping windows · 2020-04-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−3.1%
n=6
Feb
50%
+3.3%
n=6
Mar
17%
−9.4%
n=6
Apr
50%
+4.1%
n=6
May
29%
−8.0%
n=7
Jun
14%
−5.6%
n=7
Jul
57%
+0.5%
n=7
Aug
57%
+8.4%
n=7
Sep
57%
+2.3%
n=7
Oct
50%
+11.5%
n=6
Nov
67%
+14.9%
n=6
Dec
50%
−5.1%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Cho Esther | officer | Sale | 4,485 @ $10.29 | $46K | −11.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,770 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Lerner Lorena Raquel | officer | Sale | 3,568 @ $10.29 | $37K | −11.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Tanini Annita | officer | Sale | 1,224 @ $10.29 | $13K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 45,144 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Newton Charles W. | director | Sale | 551 @ $10.30 | $6K | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,114 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.27 | $10K | +5.4% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.61 | $11K | +5.7% of holding | −6.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.19 | $10K | +6.0% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Newton Charles W. | director | Sale | 550 @ $10.04 | $6K | −4.2% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,665 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Farzan Nima | director | Sale | 2,625 @ $10.73 | $28K | −21.2% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,767 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Knowles Julius | director | Sale | 2,625 @ $10.73 | $28K | −19.3% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,958 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Seth Alpna | director | Sale | 2,625 @ $10.72 | $28K | −21.2% of holding | +9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.58 | $11K | +11.8% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,450 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $11.70 | $12K | +13.4% of holding | −13.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,450 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $11.21 | $22K | +36.7% of holding | +10.6% | −15.1% | 7,450 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Seehra Jasbir | director | Sale | 7,015 @ $16.17 | $113K | −1.8% of holding | −28.8% | −45.8% | 385,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Cho Esther | officer | Sale | 4,745 @ $16.35 | $78K | −10.7% of holding | −27.4% | −44.0% | 39,755 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Regnante Keith | officer | Sale | 4,739 @ $16.35 | $77K | −10.8% of holding | −27.4% | −44.0% | 39,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Lerner Lorena Raquel | officer | Sale | 3,873 @ $16.35 | $63K | −11.1% of holding | −27.4% | −44.0% | 31,127 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,391,237 @ $17.75 | $77.9M | −100.0% of holding | +18.4% | −26.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-15 | Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,284,612 @ $17.75 | $40.6M | −100.0% of holding | +18.4% | −26.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,226,412 @ $17.75 | $21.8M | −100.0% of holding | +18.4% | −26.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,121,045 @ $17.75 | $19.9M | −100.0% of holding | +18.4% | −26.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 743,358 @ $17.75 | $13.2M | −100.0% of holding | +18.4% | −26.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-15 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 254,669 @ $17.75 | $4.5M | −100.0% of holding | +18.4% | −26.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-15 | Pontifax Management 4 G.P. (2015) Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 155,262 @ $17.75 | $2.8M | −100.0% of holding | +18.4% | −26.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 500,000 @ $10.33 | $5.2M | +13.1% of holding | +29.3% | +33.0% | 4,318,404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 325,000 @ $9.86 | $3.2M | +9.3% of holding | +29.3% | +33.0% | 3,818,404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 74,333 @ $10.33 | $768K | +1.7% of holding | +29.3% | +33.0% | 4,392,737 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 18,560 @ $9.40 | $174K | +0.5% of holding | +29.3% | +33.0% | 3,493,404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 16,365 @ $9.40 | $154K | +2.3% of holding | +29.3% | +33.0% | 743,558 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Prener Anne | director | Award / grant | 13,786 | 13,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Prener Anne | director | Award / grant | 14,870 | 14,870 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 16,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Award / grant | 7,433 | 7,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Farzan Nima | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 12,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Farzan Nima | director | Award / grant | 7,433 | 7,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | GRAY MARY ANN | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 12,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | GRAY MARY ANN | director | Award / grant | 7,433 | 7,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Seth Alpna | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 12,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Seth Alpna | director | Award / grant | 7,433 | 7,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Knowles Julius | director | Award / grant | 7,142 | 13,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Knowles Julius | director | Award / grant | 7,433 | 7,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Seehra Jasbir | director | Option exercise | 55,000 | 440,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | Seehra Jasbir | director | Option exercise | 55,000 | 197,444 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Newton Charles W. | director | Award / grant | 13,215 | 13,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Newton Charles W. | director | Award / grant | 14,788 | 14,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Seehra Jasbir | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Regnante Keith | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Lerner Lorena Raquel | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Cho Esther | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-24 | Seehra Jasbir | director | Award / grant | 217,000 | 217,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-07 | Seehra Jasbir | director | Award / grant | 62,500 | 62,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Knowles Julius | director | Disposition | 191,527 | 150,047 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | GORDON CARL L | director | Disposition | 140,057 | 759,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 140,057 | 759,155 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | Knowles Julius | director | Disposition | 130,494 | 102,233 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | GORDON CARL L | director | Disposition | 74,465 | 45,057 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-21 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Disposition | 74,465 | 45,057 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-03 | Seehra Jasbir | director | Award / grant | 90,500 | 392,723 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 1,400 | 4,391,237 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 200 | 743,358 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 100 | 4,392,637 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 14 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 2 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Exercise | 1 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Nussbaum Ran | director | Award / grant | 10,500 | 10,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Award / grant | 5,250 | 5,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | BIENAIME JEAN JACQUES | director | Award / grant | 10,500 | 10,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Farzan Nima | director | Award / grant | 5,250 | 5,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Farzan Nima | director | Award / grant | 10,500 | 10,500 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.