Issued 2026-09-25 at $32.35 · now $32.35 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, KOD has typically landed between $21.90 and $53.98 — a range of −32.3% to +66.9% from the issuance price $32.35.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,981 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-04 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($32.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where KOD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $32.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.35 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $32.43 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $25.71–$39.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.9–$53.98
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-07-21 | −67.5% | −67.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-07-20 | −64.8% | −64.8% | +3.0% |
| 2023-07-19 | −64.2% | −64.2% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-11-01 | +233.6% | −3.6% | +233.6% |
| 2019-11-06 | +212.2% | +0.0% | +237.5% |
| 2019-11-05 | +204.0% | +0.0% | +246.2% |
1,981 overlapping windows · 2018-10-04 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- February 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal KSI-101 in Participants With Macular Edema Secondary to Inflammation (MESI) - PINNACLE (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- April 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal KSI-101 in Participants With Macular Edema Secondary to Inflammation (MESI) - PEAK (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Sale | 25,896 @ $34.01 | $881K | −10.7% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 216,034 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Sale | 4,104 @ $34.67 | $142K | −1.9% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,930 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Sale | 12,477 @ $40.29 | $503K | −6.2% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,147 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Sale | 12,692 @ $39.14 | $497K | −5.9% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,624 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Sale | 4,231 @ $40.88 | $173K | −2.2% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,916 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Sale | 600 @ $41.77 | $25K | −0.3% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,316 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-18 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 2,391,268 @ $23.00 | $55.0M | +15.0% of holding | −0.4% | +27.2% | 18,358,772 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 217,428 @ $23.00 | $5.0M | +16.2% of holding | −0.4% | +27.2% | 1,560,414 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Sale | 723 @ $3.65 | $3K | −0.4% of holding | +50.2% | +565.5% | 183,316 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-06-17 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Sale | 2,874 @ $2.75 | $8K | −1.6% of holding | +10.2% | +190.3% | 182,164 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-12 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Sale | 1,558 @ $2.92 | $5K | −0.9% of holding | +2.0% | +207.5% | 179,544 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Award / grant | 66,500 | 66,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | PERLROTH VICTOR | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Bancroft Charles A | director | Award / grant | 17,731 | 17,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Dahiyat Bassil I | director | Award / grant | 17,731 | 17,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | PROFUSEK ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 17,731 | 17,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Levy Richard S | director | Award / grant | 17,731 | 17,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Yang Taiyin | director | Award / grant | 17,731 | 17,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 17,731 | 17,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 241,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 28,614 | 211,930 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 28,614 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 213,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 58,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERLROTH VICTOR | director | Option exercise | 300,000 | 2,395,538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | PERLROTH VICTOR | director | Option exercise | 300,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | PERLROTH VICTOR | director | Award / grant | 175,000 | 175,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-04 | PERLROTH VICTOR | director | Award / grant | 340,000 | 340,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-04 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Yang Taiyin | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | PROFUSEK ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Dahiyat Bassil I | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Bancroft Charles A | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Levy Richard S | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-15 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,875 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-15 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,875 | 184,039 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-15 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,875 | 184,039 | Form 4 |
| 2024-08-05 | PERLROTH VICTOR | director | Award / grant | 406,000 | 406,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-08-05 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Award / grant | 334,500 | 334,500 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-28 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-28 | Bancroft Charles A | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-28 | Dahiyat Bassil I | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-28 | PROFUSEK ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-28 | Yang Taiyin | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-15 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 1,875 | 1,875 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-15 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 3,619 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-15 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 5,494 | 185,038 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-11 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 3,025 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-06-11 | BORGESON JOHN A. | officer | Option exercise | 3,025 | 181,102 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.