Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.08 · now $6.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, JOBY has typically landed between $4.66 and $8.61 — a range of −23.3% to +41.7% from the issuance price $6.08.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,448 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where JOBY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $6.08 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.94 (-2.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.23–$6.64
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.66–$8.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,448 windows spanning 2020-11-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-01-04 | −49.9% | −49.9% | +0.0% |
| 2021-12-28 | −48.0% | −48.0% | +1.5% |
| 2022-01-03 | −47.9% | −49.5% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-06-25 | +112.4% | +0.0% | +112.4% |
| 2025-06-23 | +106.7% | +0.0% | +108.9% |
| 2025-06-17 | +105.5% | −1.6% | +105.5% |
1,448 overlapping windows · 2020-11-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−6.9%
n=6
Feb
50%
+1.5%
n=6
Mar
17%
−4.8%
n=6
Apr
33%
−2.2%
n=6
May
83%
+15.5%
n=6
Jun
67%
+13.4%
n=6
Jul
50%
+9.2%
n=6
Aug
17%
−4.9%
n=6
Sep
33%
−8.2%
n=6
Oct
40%
−3.6%
n=5
Nov
40%
+11.9%
n=5
Dec
33%
−5.0%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Sale | 8,898 @ $6.89 | $61K | −7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 110,831 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Sciarra Paul Cahill | director | Sale | 62,500 @ $6.68 | $418K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 55,703,057 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Sale | 37,831 @ $6.77 | $256K | −24.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,729 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 4,575 @ $7.23 | $33K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 191,986 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 3,531 @ $7.34 | $26K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 196,561 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 596,667 @ $7.87 | $4.7M | −1.0% of holding | −20.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 57,814,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Sciarra Paul Cahill | director | Sale | 62,500 @ $7.96 | $498K | −0.1% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,765,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 596,666 @ $7.75 | $4.6M | −1.0% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,410,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Sale | 14,240 @ $7.73 | $110K | −7.3% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 180,179 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-13 | Allison Eric | officer | Sale | 27,932 @ $7.53 | $210K | −3.8% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 710,396 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Sale | 8,381 @ $7.53 | $63K | −4.1% of holding | +9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 194,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 4,724 @ $9.10 | $43K | −2.4% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,936 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 15,788 @ $8.92 | $141K | −6.2% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 239,671 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 12,939 @ $8.92 | $115K | −7.5% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,620 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Sale | 9,575 @ $8.92 | $85K | −4.9% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,735 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Allison Eric | officer | Sale | 9,330 @ $8.92 | $83K | −1.3% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 684,779 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Simi Bonny W | director | Sale | 7,832 @ $8.92 | $70K | −3.3% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 231,687 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 5,158 @ $8.92 | $46K | −2.6% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,660 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Sale | 2,601 @ $8.92 | $23K | −3.0% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,139 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 1,975 @ $9.42 | $19K | −1.3% of holding | −21.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,455 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 5,999 @ $9.83 | $59K | −3.8% of holding | −23.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Sale | 78,489 @ $11.30 | $887K | −49.0% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,694 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Sale | 140,716 @ $11.77 | $1.7M | −46.8% of holding | −26.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Sale | 15,201 @ $11.77 | $179K | −7.9% of holding | −26.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Sciarra Paul Cahill | director | Sale | 83,334 @ $12.00 | $1.0M | −0.1% of holding | −24.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,828,057 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Sciarra Paul Cahill | director | Sale | 416,666 @ $12.02 | $5.0M | −0.7% of holding | −28.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,911,391 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 4,602 @ $11.47 | $53K | −2.5% of holding | −21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,319 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 3,486 @ $10.74 | $37K | −1.8% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,921 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 322,019 @ $10.38 | $3.3M | −0.5% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,007,377 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 99,000 @ $10.38 | $1.0M | −0.3% of holding | −11.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,678,802 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | Allison Eric | officer | Sale | 74,844 @ $10.00 | $748K | −10.0% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 676,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 322,018 @ $9.03 | $2.9M | −0.5% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,329,396 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 99,000 @ $9.03 | $894K | −0.3% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,777,802 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 39,963 @ $9.03 | $361K | −15.1% of holding | +9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Sale | 14,295 @ $8.73 | $125K | −8.0% of holding | +18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 163,567 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-13 | Allison Eric | officer | Sale | 27,698 @ $8.20 | $227K | −3.6% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 750,852 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Sale | 8,310 @ $8.20 | $68K | −4.5% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 271 @ $8.47 | $2K | −0.2% of holding | +22.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 986 @ $8.87 | $9K | −0.4% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 826 @ $8.87 | $7K | −0.6% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,059 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Allison Eric | officer | Sale | 826 @ $8.87 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 725,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Sale | 667 @ $8.87 | $6K | −0.4% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 170,108 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Sale | 566 @ $8.87 | $5K | −7.3% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Simi Bonny W | director | Sale | 526 @ $8.87 | $5K | −0.2% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 218,392 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 357 @ $8.87 | $3K | −0.2% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,251 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 4,720 @ $8.76 | $41K | −2.6% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 3,394 @ $8.76 | $30K | −2.3% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,284 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 15,823 @ $8.15 | $129K | −5.7% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 263,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 12,965 @ $8.15 | $106K | −8.1% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 147,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Sale | 9,594 @ $8.15 | $78K | −5.4% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Allison Eric | officer | Sale | 9,350 @ $8.15 | $76K | −1.3% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 724,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Simi Bonny W | director | Sale | 7,696 @ $8.15 | $63K | −3.4% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,475 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 5,167 @ $8.15 | $42K | −2.7% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 183,190 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Sale | 1,839 @ $8.15 | $15K | −22.8% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 2,594 @ $9.85 | $26K | −1.9% of holding | −12.0% | −51.8% | 135,541 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 4,231 @ $9.94 | $42K | −3.0% of holding | −11.9% | −51.4% | 138,135 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Sale | 1,433 @ $9.90 | $14K | −0.9% of holding | −19.2% | −51.0% | 160,503 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Sale | 1,172 @ $9.90 | $12K | −0.9% of holding | −19.2% | −51.0% | 130,724 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Sale | 1,075 @ $9.90 | $11K | −0.6% of holding | −19.2% | −51.0% | 171,859 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Sale | 3,238 @ $10.25 | $33K | −1.3% of holding | −16.9% | −48.2% | 249,048 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
211 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Evans Aicha | director | Gift | 24,606 | 24,606 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Evans Aicha | director | Gift | 24,606 | 112,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Option exercise | 73,421 | 807,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Option exercise | 73,421 | 157,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Option exercise | 11,156 | 22,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Option exercise | 11,156 | 200,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-12 | Allison Eric | officer | Option exercise | 53,549 | 738,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-12 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Option exercise | 16,065 | 32,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-12 | Allison Eric | officer | Option exercise | 53,549 | 107,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-12 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Option exercise | 16,065 | 202,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Thompson Michael N. Jr. | director | Award / grant | 2,027 | 1,577,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Sciarra Paul Cahill | director | Award / grant | 1,891 | 163,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ogawa Tetsuo | director | Award / grant | 1,891 | 86,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saluja Dipender | director | Award / grant | 2,027 | 193,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Option exercise | 12,977 | 237,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Option exercise | 7,599 | 156,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Option exercise | 5,046 | 90,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Allison Eric | officer | Option exercise | 4,749 | 680,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Option exercise | 8,306 | 191,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Simi Bonny W | director | Option exercise | 5,699 | 224,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Option exercise | 7,599 | 30,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Allison Eric | officer | Option exercise | 5,046 | 90,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Option exercise | 17,659 | 317,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Option exercise | 5,046 | 90,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Option exercise | 12,459 | 74,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Brumana Rodrigo | officer | Option exercise | 5,046 | 86,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Allison Eric | officer | Option exercise | 5,046 | 694,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bevirt JoeBen | director | Option exercise | 12,977 | 77,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Option exercise | 5,046 | 173,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Option exercise | 5,224 | 20,897 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Simi Bonny W | director | Option exercise | 5,046 | 239,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Simi Bonny W | director | Option exercise | 10,382 | 62,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Papadopoulos Didier | officer | Option exercise | 12,459 | 168,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Option exercise | 5,046 | 90,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Simi Bonny W | director | Option exercise | 5,046 | 90,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Option exercise | 5,224 | 187,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Allison Eric | officer | Option exercise | 8,306 | 689,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | DeHoff Kate | officer | Option exercise | 8,306 | 49,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Option exercise | 6,229 | 193,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Bowles Gregory | officer | Option exercise | 5,046 | 198,818 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.