IVZInvesco Ltd.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $30.08 · now $30.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, IVZ has typically landed between $25.63 and $34.97 — a range of −14.8% to +16.2% from the issuance price $30.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($30.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where IVZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $30.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$25.63worst · -14.8%$34.97best · +16.2%
  • now $30.08 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $30.44 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $28.4–$32.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.63–$34.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−56.7%−56.7%+0.0%
2020-02-21−56.5%−56.5%+0.0%
2008-09-25−53.3%−53.3%+6.3%
3 best
2020-05-15+66.2%+0.0%+72.3%
2009-03-05+64.4%−1.6%+64.4%
2009-03-06+59.0%−3.3%+61.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$13.3B
market cap
$-1.47
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$6.4B
'20'25
Net income−$282M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.4B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-4.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-2.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.83
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $30.08$21.25$119.10
  • DCF (intrinsic)$112.35
  • Analyst target · range $28.00–$34.50$31.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$30.08

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−1.2%
n=18
Feb
42%
−0.0%
n=19
Mar
47%
+1.0%
n=19
Apr
58%
−0.0%
n=19
May
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.1%
n=19
Jul
53%
+4.4%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.9%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.9%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.3%
n=18
Nov
78%
+4.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$33$202026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $97K — WOOD PHOEBE A2026-09-09: 2 insider sales, $4.7M — Lo Andrew Tak Shing, Butcher Stephanie2026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Lo Andrew Tak Shing2026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — DUKES LAURA ALLISON2025-10-31: 1 insider sale, $3.8M — Sharp Douglas J2025-09-10: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — Butcher Stephanie2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $2.3M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $3.8M2026-09: 5 open-market sales, $7.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector WOOD PHOEBE A — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Lo Andrew Tak Shing — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Butcher Stephanie — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lo Andrew Tak Shing — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DUKES LAURA ALLISON — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Sharp Douglas J — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Butcher Stephanie — Sale on 2025-09-10, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11WOOD PHOEBE AdirectorSale3,000 @ $32.44$97K−2.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open107,111Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-09-09Lo Andrew Tak ShingofficerSale100,840 @ $32.20$3.2M−11.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open812,477Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-09Butcher StephanieofficerSale45,095 @ $32.28$1.5M−81.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open10,205Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-08Lo Andrew Tak ShingofficerSale42,530 @ $32.84$1.4M−4.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open913,317Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-04DUKES LAURA ALLISONdirectorSale31,075 @ $33.16$1.0M−10.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open259,183Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-31Sharp Douglas JofficerSale160,000 @ $23.56$3.8M−99.9% of holding+3.2%+8.4%192Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-10Butcher StephanieofficerSale103,192 @ $22.12$2.3M−77.6% of holding+4.7%+2.4%29,855Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

175 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04DUKES LAURA ALLISONdirectorGift7,600251,583Form 4
2026-08-31Butcher StephanieofficerWithheld for tax11,98434,131Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerWithheld for tax10,35865,745Form 4
2026-08-31Butcher StephanieofficerWithheld for tax9,76155,300Form 4
2026-08-31Butcher StephanieofficerWithheld for tax9,01544,295Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerWithheld for tax6,33147,332Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerWithheld for tax5,52453,699Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerAward / grant22,64288,387Form 4
2026-08-31Butcher StephanieofficerAward / grant25,49746,115Form 4
2026-08-31Butcher StephanieofficerAward / grant20,76665,061Form 4
2026-08-31Butcher StephanieofficerOption exercise25,49725,497Form 4
2026-08-31Butcher StephanieofficerOption exercise19,17938,358Form 4
2026-08-31Butcher StephanieofficerOption exercise20,76662,838Form 4
2026-08-31Butcher StephanieofficerAward / grant19,17953,310Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerAward / grant11,89159,223Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerAward / grant22,40476,103Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerAward / grant13,54853,663Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerOption exercise13,5480Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerOption exercise11,89111,892Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerOption exercise22,40444,809Form 4
2026-08-31Sharp Douglas JofficerOption exercise22,64267,927Form 4
2026-07-02Schlossberg AndrewdirectorWithheld for tax156,007742,708Form 4
2026-07-02DUKES LAURA ALLISONdirectorWithheld for tax52,003290,258Form 4
2026-07-02Kupor Jeffrey HofficerWithheld for tax26,002125,818Form 4
2026-07-02Lo Andrew Tak ShingofficerOption exercise116,7540Form 4
2026-07-02Lo Andrew Tak ShingofficerOption exercise116,754955,847Form 4
2026-05-15WAGONER G RICHARD JRdirectorAward / grant8,112107,870Form 4
2026-05-15Tolliver PauladirectorAward / grant8,11266,273Form 4
2026-05-15Glavin William Francis JrdirectorAward / grant8,11281,084Form 4
2026-05-15GIBBONS THOMAS PdirectorAward / grant8,11247,202Form 4
2026-05-15WOMACK CHRISTOPHER CdirectorAward / grant8,11259,917Form 4
2026-05-15Finke Thomas MdirectorAward / grant8,11264,238Form 4
2026-05-15Beshar SarahdirectorAward / grant8,112115,166Form 4
2026-05-15Sheinwald NigeldirectorAward / grant8,112101,968Form 4
2026-05-15WOOD PHOEBE AdirectorAward / grant8,112110,111Form 4
2026-03-13Smith Alan LeonardofficerWithheld for tax3,84914,489Form 4
2026-03-13Smith Alan LeonardofficerAward / grant8,64118,338Form 4
2026-03-13Smith Alan LeonardofficerOption exercise8,6418,641Form 4
2026-02-28Schlossberg AndrewdirectorWithheld for tax94,002898,715Form 4
2026-02-28DUKES LAURA ALLISONdirectorWithheld for tax58,064342,261Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Kevin HernHousesale2026-04-032026-03-17$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-04-282025-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K
Gary PetersSenatesale2024-11-142024-10-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-12-062023-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-11-082023-10-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.