HTGCHercules Capital, Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.57 · now $17.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HTGC has typically landed between $15.17 and $19.53 — a range of −13.7% to +11.1% from the issuance price $17.57.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where HTGC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$15.17worst · -13.7%$19.53best · +11.1%
  • now $17.57 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $17.97 (+2.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.18–$18.76
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.17–$19.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−56.2%−56.2%+0.0%
2020-02-24−54.0%−55.2%+0.0%
2020-03-05−53.4%−53.4%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-12+70.5%+0.0%+70.5%
2009-03-06+65.7%−1.1%+65.7%
2009-03-09+64.3%+0.0%+67.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Feb
70%
+0.2%
n=20
Mar
55%
−1.9%
n=20
Apr
75%
+4.0%
n=20
May
65%
+2.2%
n=20
Jun
70%
+0.4%
n=20
Jul
75%
+4.2%
n=20
Aug
65%
+0.7%
n=20
Sep
40%
−0.7%
n=20
Oct
55%
+2.1%
n=20
Nov
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$18$132026-03-26: 7 insider purchases, $619K — Aguirre DeAnne, Loo Wade, Theodosopoulos Nikos, CROWELL GAYLE A …2026-03-04: 2 insider purchases, $118K — Follmann Christian, Randhawa Paramjeet K2026-02-27: 6 insider purchases, $612K — Fallon Thomas J, Bluestein Scott, Meyer Seth H, BADAVAS ROBERT P …2026-02-25: 1 insider purchase, $49K — Loo Wade2026-02-24: 3 insider purchases, $677K — Bluestein Scott, Fallon Thomas J, BADAVAS ROBERT P2026-02-23: 1 insider purchase, $100K — CROWELL GAYLE A2026-02-17: 2 insider purchases, $416K — Fallon Thomas J, Theodosopoulos Nikos2025-11-03: 1 insider purchase, $107K — CROWELL GAYLE A2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $107K2026-02: 13 open-market purchases, $1.9M2026-03: 9 open-market purchases, $737K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Aguirre DeAnne — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Loo Wade — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Theodosopoulos Nikos — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CROWELL GAYLE A — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fallon Thomas J — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector BADAVAS ROBERT P — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Randhawa Paramjeet K — Purchase on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Follmann Christian — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Randhawa Paramjeet K — Purchase on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fallon Thomas J — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same daydirector Bluestein Scott — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same dayofficer Meyer Seth H — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same daydirector BADAVAS ROBERT P — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same daydirector Theodosopoulos Nikos — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same dayofficer Botelho Kiersten Zaza — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed same daydirector Loo Wade — Purchase on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bluestein Scott — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed same daydirector Fallon Thomas J — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BADAVAS ROBERT P — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CROWELL GAYLE A — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fallon Thomas J — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Theodosopoulos Nikos — Purchase on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CROWELL GAYLE A — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-26Aguirre DeAnnedirectorPurchase7,317 @ $14.35$105K+213.2% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open10,749Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26Loo WadedirectorPurchase7,317 @ $14.35$105K+108.7% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open14,050Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26Theodosopoulos NikosdirectorPurchase7,317 @ $14.35$105K+33.2% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open29,362Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26CROWELL GAYLE AdirectorPurchase7,317 @ $14.35$105K+8.1% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open97,589Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26Fallon Thomas JdirectorPurchase7,300 @ $14.30$104K+4.9% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open157,669Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26BADAVAS ROBERT PdirectorPurchase3,658 @ $14.35$52K+259.1% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open5,070Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26Randhawa Paramjeet KdirectorPurchase2,926 @ $14.35$42K+15.0% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open22,486Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04Follmann ChristianofficerPurchase5,000 @ $14.68$73K−3.2% of holding+3.4%+12.9%150,135Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-04Randhawa Paramjeet KdirectorPurchase3,050 @ $14.78$45K+18.5% of holding+3.4%+12.9%19,560Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27Fallon Thomas JdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $14.20$284K+15.3% of holding+7.5%+17.6%150,369Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Bluestein ScottdirectorPurchase7,000 @ $14.35$100K+0.3% of holding+7.5%+17.6%2,516,379Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Meyer Seth HofficerPurchase7,000 @ $14.33$100K+1.6% of holding+7.5%+17.6%448,553Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27BADAVAS ROBERT PdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $14.27$71K+4.3% of holding+7.5%+17.6%122,073Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Theodosopoulos NikosdirectorPurchase2,600 @ $14.21$37K+13.7% of holding+7.5%+17.6%21,523Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Botelho Kiersten ZazaofficerPurchase1,300 @ $14.21$18K+1.4% of holding+7.5%+17.6%93,336Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-25Loo WadedirectorPurchase3,300 @ $14.98$49K+11.2% of holding−0.3%+12.6%32,767Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Bluestein ScottdirectorPurchase30,000 @ $15.08$452K+1.2% of holding+1.3%+15.6%2,509,379Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-24Fallon Thomas JdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $14.98$150K+8.3% of holding+1.3%+15.6%130,369Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24BADAVAS ROBERT PdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $15.01$75K+4.5% of holding+1.3%+15.6%117,073Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-23CROWELL GAYLE AdirectorPurchase6,600 @ $15.20$100K+8.2% of holding+0.8%+14.3%87,458Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Fallon Thomas JdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $15.88$318K+19.9% of holding−2.6%+2.0%120,369Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Theodosopoulos NikosdirectorPurchase6,165 @ $15.93$98K+48.3% of holding−2.6%+2.0%18,923Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-03CROWELL GAYLE AdirectorPurchase6,000 @ $17.77$107K+8.3% of holding+8.5%−9.8%78,727Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05Follmann ChristianofficerPurchase395 @ $17.83$7K+0.3% of holding−1.2%−4.1%121,212Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-05Follmann ChristianofficerSale395 @ $17.83$7K−0.3% of holding−1.2%−4.1%120,556Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-08CROWELL GAYLE AdirectorPurchase5,999 @ $17.49$105K+9.5% of holding−0.2%−12.5%69,344Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08Aguirre DeAnnedirectorPurchase5,999 @ $17.49$105K+79.7% of holding−0.2%−12.5%13,529Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08Loo WadedirectorPurchase5,999 @ $17.49$105K+83.9% of holding−0.2%−12.5%13,149Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08Theodosopoulos NikosdirectorPurchase5,999 @ $17.49$105K+100.6% of holding−0.2%−12.5%11,960Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08Fallon Thomas JdirectorPurchase5,976 @ $17.53$105K+6.4% of holding−0.2%−12.5%98,882Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08BADAVAS ROBERT PdirectorPurchase1,799 @ $17.49$31K+42.5% of holding−0.2%−12.5%6,033Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax5435,600Form 4
2026-07-09Bluestein ScottdirectorWithheld for tax10,6522,475,593Form 4
2026-07-09Bluestein ScottdirectorWithheld for tax9,7412,486,245Form 4
2026-07-09Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax3,458435,605Form 4
2026-07-09Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax3,011439,063Form 4
2026-07-09Follmann ChristianofficerWithheld for tax1,433145,904Form 4
2026-07-09Follmann ChristianofficerWithheld for tax1,365144,539Form 4
2026-07-09Botelho Kiersten ZazaofficerWithheld for tax1,01889,388Form 4
2026-07-09Botelho Kiersten ZazaofficerWithheld for tax95690,406Form 4
2026-06-18BADAVAS ROBERT PdirectorAward / grant3,8738,943Form 4
2026-06-18BADAVAS ROBERT PdirectorAward / grant3,8738,943Form 4
2026-06-18BADAVAS ROBERT PdirectorAward / grant3,8738,943Form 4
2026-06-18BADAVAS ROBERT PdirectorAward / grant3,8738,943Form 4
2026-06-09Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax5442,074Form 4
2026-04-09Bluestein ScottdirectorWithheld for tax10,6522,505,727Form 4
2026-04-09Bluestein ScottdirectorWithheld for tax9,7412,495,986Form 4
2026-04-09Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax3,458445,090Form 4
2026-04-09Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax3,011442,079Form 4
2026-04-09Follmann ChristianofficerWithheld for tax1,433147,337Form 4
2026-04-09Follmann ChristianofficerWithheld for tax1,365148,770Form 4
2026-04-09Botelho Kiersten ZazaofficerWithheld for tax1,01891,362Form 4
2026-04-09Botelho Kiersten ZazaofficerWithheld for tax95692,380Form 4
2026-03-05Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax5448,548Form 4
2026-01-11Bluestein ScottdirectorWithheld for tax13,4312,479,379Form 4
2026-01-11Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax4,052434,553Form 4
2026-01-11Follmann ChristianofficerWithheld for tax1,178145,134Form 4
2026-01-11Botelho Kiersten ZazaofficerWithheld for tax82292,036Form 4
2026-01-09Bluestein ScottdirectorWithheld for tax50,0812,492,810Form 4
2026-01-09Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax15,965438,605Form 4
2026-01-09Follmann ChristianofficerWithheld for tax7,580146,312Form 4
2026-01-09Botelho Kiersten ZazaofficerWithheld for tax5,51092,858Form 4
2026-01-08Bluestein ScottdirectorAward / grant298,7942,542,891Form 4
2026-01-08Meyer Seth HofficerAward / grant84,978454,570Form 4
2026-01-08Follmann ChristianofficerAward / grant37,007153,892Form 4
2026-01-08Botelho Kiersten ZazaofficerAward / grant34,26598,368Form 4
2025-12-05Meyer Seth HofficerWithheld for tax20369,592Form 4
2025-12-04Follmann ChristianofficerAward / grant10,56039,448Form 4
2025-12-04Meyer Seth HofficerAward / grant7,92045,184Form 4
2025-12-04Botelho Kiersten ZazaofficerAward / grant10,56034,335Form 4
2025-12-04Bluestein ScottdirectorAward / grant23,759170,957Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.