HLIT · TickerCove

HLITHarmonic Inc.Technology · Communication Equipmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.15 · now $11.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, HLIT has typically landed between $9.11 and $13.60 — a range of −18.3% to +22.0% from the issuance price $11.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$11.15 · 28% of range

$8.85 low$17.11 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.1%

typical move · IQR 15.9%

−18.3%worst (p90)+22.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where HLIT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $11.15 (+0.0%)
typical $11.28 (+1.1%)
middle 50% $10.39–$12.16
90% range $9.11–$13.6

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-10-22	−48.8%	−48.8%	+0.0%
2008-10-20	−47.2%	−47.2%	+0.0%
2008-10-21	−46.9%	−46.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-04-28	+66.5%	+0.0%	+67.6%
2026-04-27	+63.1%	−2.7%	+63.1%
2016-08-04	+60.9%	+0.0%	+60.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−1.0%

n=20

Feb

60%

−0.3%

n=20

Mar

45%

+1.3%

n=20

Apr

35%

−1.5%

n=20

May

50%

+1.1%

n=20

Jun

50%

+0.6%

n=20

Jul

50%

+2.6%

n=20

Aug

55%

+0.8%

n=20

Sep

50%

+2.1%

n=20

Oct

65%

+3.1%

n=20

Nov

50%

+0.3%

n=20

Dec

60%

+2.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-14	Copeland Stephanie	director	Sale	4,300 @ $13.30	$57K	−17.2% of holding	+12.1%	not yet — horizon still open	20,752	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-13	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Sale	31,766 @ $13.24	$421K	−19.2% of holding	+11.9%	not yet — horizon still open	133,924	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-15	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Sale	14,414 @ $10.41	$150K	−8.8% of holding	−4.3%	+32.5%	149,570	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-15	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Sale	9,421 @ $10.42	$98K	−5.4% of holding	−4.3%	+32.5%	163,984	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-12	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Sale	6,165 @ $10.61	$65K	−3.4% of holding	−4.8%	+33.3%	173,405	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11	KRALL DAVID	director	Purchase	47,528 @ $10.50	$499K	+27.1% of holding	−5.4%	+30.6%	223,125	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-01	Whalen Daniel T	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $8.25	$17K	+16.9% of holding	+12.0%	+6.9%	13,840	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-30	Whalen Daniel T	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $8.99	$18K	+20.3% of holding	+3.8%	−10.6%	11,840	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-25	Whalen Daniel T	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $9.99	$10K	+11.3% of holding	+2.6%	−15.8%	9,840	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Whalen Daniel T	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $10.19	$20K	+34.2% of holding	+4.3%	−15.2%	7,840	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-24	Whalen Daniel T	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $10.08	$10K	+12.8% of holding	+4.3%	−15.2%	8,840	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13	KRALL DAVID	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $9.78	$98K	+6.5% of holding	+14.6%	−14.5%	163,490	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Purchase	6,155 @ $9.65	$59K	+1.8% of holding	+14.6%	−14.5%	346,352	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Purchase	1,245 @ $9.64	$12K	+0.4% of holding	+14.6%	−14.5%	347,597	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Purchase	200 @ $9.63	$2K	+0.1% of holding	+14.6%	−14.5%	347,797	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-13	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Purchase	180 @ $9.65	$2K	+0.1% of holding	+14.6%	−14.5%	340,197	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-12	Jankovic Walter	officer	Purchase	11,900 @ $9.44	$112K	+34.9% of holding	+16.1%	−14.1%	46,029	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12	Jankovic Walter	officer	Purchase	100 @ $9.44	$944	+0.2% of holding	+16.1%	−14.1%	46,129	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

239 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Jankovic Walter	officer	Withheld for tax	732	166,839	Form 4
2026-09-11	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Option exercise	20,032	747,981	Form 4
2026-09-11	Jankovic Walter	officer	Option exercise	1,457	4,371	Form 4
2026-09-11	Jankovic Walter	officer	Option exercise	1,457	167,571	Form 4
2026-09-11	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Option exercise	20,032	60,096	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jankovic Walter	officer	Withheld for tax	9,930	166,114	Form 4
2026-08-15	Chu Timothy C	officer	Withheld for tax	3,475	148,902	Form 4
2026-08-15	Glahn Ronald J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,111	44,463	Form 4
2026-08-15	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Option exercise	26,196	727,949	Form 4
2026-08-15	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Option exercise	6,726	13,452	Form 4
2026-08-15	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Option exercise	19,470	116,822	Form 4
2026-08-15	Chu Timothy C	officer	Option exercise	9,876	152,377	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jankovic Walter	officer	Option exercise	19,784	176,044	Form 4
2026-08-15	Chu Timothy C	officer	Option exercise	3,823	22,940	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jankovic Walter	officer	Option exercise	8,496	50,977	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jankovic Walter	officer	Option exercise	8,071	16,142	Form 4
2026-08-15	Jankovic Walter	officer	Option exercise	3,217	3,218	Form 4
2026-08-15	Chu Timothy C	officer	Option exercise	6,053	12,107	Form 4
2026-08-15	Glahn Ronald J	officer	Option exercise	4,038	24,228	Form 4
2026-08-15	Glahn Ronald J	officer	Option exercise	4,038	45,574	Form 4
2026-08-10	Jankovic Walter	officer	Award / grant	20,614	20,614	Form 4
2026-08-10	Chu Timothy C	officer	Award / grant	10,307	10,307	Form 4
2026-07-15	Glahn Ronald J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,031	41,536	Form 4
2026-07-15	Glahn Ronald J	officer	Option exercise	3,750	42,567	Form 4
2026-07-15	Glahn Ronald J	officer	Option exercise	3,750	11,250	Form 4
2026-06-16	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Withheld for tax	23,751	161,362	Form 4
2026-06-16	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Option exercise	19,329	0	Form 4
2026-06-16	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Option exercise	8,777	0	Form 4
2026-06-16	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Option exercise	5,449	0	Form 4
2026-06-16	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Option exercise	44,600	185,113	Form 4
2026-06-11	Jankovic Walter	officer	Withheld for tax	732	156,260	Form 4
2026-06-11	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Option exercise	20,032	80,128	Form 4
2026-06-11	Jankovic Walter	officer	Option exercise	1,457	156,992	Form 4
2026-06-11	Ben-Natan Nimrod	director	Option exercise	20,032	701,753	Form 4
2026-06-11	Jankovic Walter	officer	Option exercise	1,457	5,828	Form 4
2026-06-01	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Withheld for tax	1,452	140,513	Form 4
2026-06-01	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Option exercise	2,725	10,897	Form 4
2026-06-01	Haltmayer Neven	officer	Option exercise	2,725	141,965	Form 4
2026-05-22	Jankovic Walter	officer	Withheld for tax	3,335	155,535	Form 4
2026-05-22	Jankovic Walter	officer	Option exercise	6,645	158,870	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i