GNW · TickerCove

GNWGenworth Financial, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.09 · now $10.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GNW has typically landed between $8.89 and $11.58 — a range of −11.9% to +14.7% from the issuance price $10.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$10.09 · 81% of range

$7.94 low$10.6 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.4%

typical move · IQR 11.2%

−11.9%worst (p90)+14.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

2 buys · 3 sells · 3 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GNW has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $10.09 (+0.0%)
typical $10.33 (+2.4%)
middle 50% $9.76–$10.89
90% range $8.89–$11.58

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-10-14	−85.2%	−85.2%	+0.0%
2008-10-20	−82.7%	−84.5%	+0.0%
2008-10-21	−82.2%	−82.5%	+1.0%
3 best
2008-11-19	+232.4%	−11.8%	+242.2%
2008-11-21	+217.8%	+0.0%	+287.8%
2008-11-20	+206.1%	−9.1%	+252.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

39%

−3.0%

n=18

Feb

47%

−1.4%

n=19

Mar

58%

+4.7%

n=19

Apr

53%

+3.8%

n=19

May

37%

+5.3%

n=19

Jun

47%

−0.9%

n=19

Jul

53%

−0.7%

n=19

Aug

58%

+7.5%

n=19

Sep

47%

−2.3%

n=19

Oct

56%

+0.6%

n=18

Nov

67%

−2.5%

n=18

Dec

56%

+5.7%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	McInerney Thomas J	director	Sale	100,000 @ $10.53	$1.1M	−1.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	5,068,883	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-24	Hagerman Melissa	officer	Sale	14,708 @ $9.91	$146K	−7.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	192,539	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21	Karawan Gregory S.	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $9.91	$396K	−10.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	343,121	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-22	McInerney Thomas J	director	Sale	100,000 @ $9.27	$927K	−1.8% of holding	+3.8%	not yet — horizon still open	5,368,883	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-22	RESTREPO ROBERT P JR	director	Sale	50,000 @ $9.12	$456K	−35.0% of holding	+3.8%	not yet — horizon still open	92,655	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-02	McInerney Thomas J	director	Sale	40,000 @ $8.64	$346K	−0.8% of holding	+3.8%	−13.1%	5,107,444	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-24	Karawan Gregory S.	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $8.51	$340K	−11.7% of holding	+3.2%	−13.1%	302,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27	Gupta Rohit	director	Sale	86,406 @ $8.68	$750K	−9.8% of holding	+2.4%	−9.3%	794,630	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

245 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	Hagerman Melissa	officer	Gift	11,000	181,539	Form 4
2026-07-13	Shah Samir B.	officer	Withheld for tax	8,160	123,759	Form 4
2026-07-13	Shah Samir B.	officer	Option exercise	15,965	0	Form 4
2026-07-13	Shah Samir B.	officer	Option exercise	15,965	131,919	Form 4
2026-07-13	Shah Samir B.	officer	Option exercise	15,965	131,919	Form 4
2026-05-27	McInerney Thomas J	director	Gift	200,000	5,168,883	Form 4
2026-05-21	Taylor Morris C.	officer	Withheld for tax	6,478	15,043	Form 4
2026-05-21	Taylor Morris C.	officer	Option exercise	21,521	43,042	Form 4
2026-05-21	Taylor Morris C.	officer	Option exercise	21,521	21,521	Form 4
2026-05-21	Taylor Morris C.	officer	Option exercise	21,521	21,521	Form 4
2026-05-20	Van Wyk Steven C.	director	Award / grant	32,100	77,676	Form 4
2026-05-20	Sarsynski Elaine A	director	Award / grant	32,100	164,999	Form 4
2026-05-20	HIGGINS MELINA E	director	Award / grant	31,547	163,729	Form 4
2026-05-20	Dyson Karen Elizabeth	director	Award / grant	18,264	92,655	Form 4
2026-05-20	RESTREPO ROBERT P JR	director	Award / grant	18,264	142,655	Form 4
2026-05-20	Goodman Jill R	director	Award / grant	18,264	92,655	Form 4
2026-05-20	Mills Howard D. III	director	Award / grant	18,264	92,655	Form 4
2026-05-20	Smith Ramsey D.	director	Award / grant	18,264	92,655	Form 4
2026-05-20	Conrad G Kent	director	Award / grant	18,264	92,655	Form 4
2026-03-02	McInerney Thomas J	director	Withheld for tax	304,135	5,468,883	Form 4
2026-03-02	Upton Jerome T	officer	Withheld for tax	36,555	560,388	Form 4
2026-03-02	Saltzgaber Kelly A	officer	Withheld for tax	23,133	135,848	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hagerman Melissa	officer	Withheld for tax	22,514	207,247	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hodges Mark Blakeley	officer	Withheld for tax	22,514	166,515	Form 4
2026-03-02	Karawan Gregory S.	officer	Withheld for tax	22,514	383,121	Form 4
2026-03-02	Shah Samir B.	officer	Withheld for tax	18,595	115,954	Form 4
2026-03-02	Arland Jamala M.	officer	Withheld for tax	11,257	101,657	Form 4
2026-03-02	Shah Samir B.	officer	Award / grant	102,857	102,857	Form 4
2026-03-02	Woodell Darren W.	officer	Award / grant	18,743	18,743	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hagerman Melissa	officer	Award / grant	57,143	57,143	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hagerman Melissa	officer	Option exercise	49,918	229,761	Form 4
2026-03-02	Karawan Gregory S.	officer	Award / grant	68,571	68,571	Form 4
2026-03-02	Karawan Gregory S.	officer	Option exercise	49,918	405,635	Form 4
2026-03-02	Upton Jerome T	officer	Award / grant	91,429	91,429	Form 4
2026-03-02	Upton Jerome T	officer	Option exercise	83,196	596,943	Form 4
2026-03-02	McInerney Thomas J	director	Option exercise	665,574	5,773,018	Form 4
2026-03-02	Arland Jamala M.	officer	Option exercise	24,959	112,914	Form 4
2026-03-02	Arland Jamala M.	officer	Award / grant	82,286	82,286	Form 4
2026-03-02	Taylor Morris C.	officer	Award / grant	45,714	45,714	Form 4
2026-03-02	Hodges Mark Blakeley	officer	Option exercise	49,918	189,029	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Lisa Mcclain	House	sale	2025-08-13	2025-06-17	$1–15K
Lisa Mcclain	House	purchase	2025-08-13	2025-06-11	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	sale	2014-11-14	2014-10-28	$50–100K
Ms. Lois Frankel	House	sale	2014-06-18	2014-06-12	$1–15K
Ms. Lois Frankel	House	purchase	2014-06-18	2014-06-09	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i