FDXFedEx CorporationIndustrials · Integrated Freight & Logisticsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $301.72 · now $301.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FDX has typically landed between $268.39 and $343.16 — a range of −11.0% to +13.7% from the issuance price $301.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($301.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FDX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $301.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$268.39worst · -11.0%$343.16best · +13.7%
  • now $301.72 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $306.12 (+1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $288.67–$323.57
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $268.39–$343.16
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−43.7%−43.7%+2.1%
2020-02-14−39.8%−42.7%+4.0%
2020-02-11−38.3%−38.3%+4.4%
3 best
2009-03-09+35.6%+0.0%+45.9%
2009-03-11+35.6%+0.0%+35.6%
2009-03-06+35.4%−3.9%+40.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$74.5B
market cap
$18.34
EPS (TTM)
17.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-09-17
next earnings
Revenue$94.7B
'21'26
Net income$4.4B
'21'26
Free cash flow$5.1B
'21'26
Net margin · by yr4.7%
'21'26
ROE · by yr14.0%
'21'26
Debt / equity · by yr1.36
'21'26

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $301.72$127.83$594.35
  • DCF (intrinsic)$315.62
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$562.18
  • Analyst target · range $160.00–$479.00$345.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$301.72

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−1.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
+1.0%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
+0.7%
n=19
May
58%
+0.2%
n=19
Jun
63%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.8%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.6%
n=19
Oct
72%
+2.9%
n=18
Nov
89%
+6.2%
n=18
Dec
39%
−2.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$339$1772026-06-30: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — WALSH PAUL S2026-04-15: 4 insider sales, $8.3M — Brightman Tracy B, SCHWAB SUSAN C …2026-04-14: 4 insider sales, $10.3M — ADAMS GINA F., Preet Kawal, Carere Brie …2026-04: 8 open-market sales, $18.6M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesdirector WALSH PAUL S — Sale on 2026-06-30, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Brightman Tracy B — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SCHWAB SUSAN C — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brightman Tracy B — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Brightman Tracy B — Sale on 2026-04-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ADAMS GINA F. — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed same daydirector ADAMS GINA F. — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed same dayofficer Preet Kawal — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed same daydirector Carere Brie — Sale on 2026-04-14, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30WALSH PAUL SdirectorSale5,042 @ $324.56$1.6M−23.6% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open16,359Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-15Brightman Tracy BofficerSale9,084 @ $363.61$3.3M−36.0% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open16,146Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15SCHWAB SUSAN CdirectorSale5,795 @ $369.00$2.1M−36.6% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open10,038Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15Brightman Tracy BofficerSale5,094 @ $363.33$1.9M−31.5% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open11,052Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-15Brightman Tracy BofficerSale2,781 @ $363.30$1.0M−20.1% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open11,052Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-14ADAMS GINA F.directorSale14,015 @ $366.02$5.1M−35.2% of holding−7.0%not yet — horizon still open25,838Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-14ADAMS GINA F.directorSale6,435 @ $367.37$2.4M−24.9% of holding−7.0%not yet — horizon still open19,403Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-14Preet KawalofficerSale4,900 @ $367.89$1.8M−30.9% of holding−7.0%not yet — horizon still open10,953Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-14Carere BriedirectorSale2,700 @ $370.03$999K−10.3% of holding−7.0%not yet — horizon still open23,562Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-23Ramo Joshua CooperdirectorSale3,610 @ $232.23$838K−33.8% of holding−5.5%+22.5%7,080Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-09Ellison Marvin RdirectorSale3,610 @ $236.94$855K−31.9% of holding−6.3%+20.3%7,720Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-08WALSH PAUL SdirectorSale3,610 @ $238.29$860K−18.9% of holding−7.1%+18.3%15,513Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-07MARTIN R BRADdirectorSale2,123 @ $241.75$513K−19.2% of holding−6.6%+16.5%8,935Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-11SMITH FREDERICK WdirectorSale55,384 @ $203.37$11.3M−0.4% of holding+1.4%−12.9%14,289,514Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-11SMITH FREDERICK WdirectorSale45,118 @ $202.68$9.1M−0.3% of holding+1.4%−12.9%14,344,898Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-11SMITH FREDERICK WdirectorSale22,498 @ $201.71$4.5M−0.2% of holding+1.4%−12.9%14,390,866Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-11SMITH FREDERICK WdirectorSale850 @ $207.25$176K−0.0% of holding+1.4%−12.9%14,390,016Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-27Smith John AlandirectorSale3,345 @ $243.55$815K−12.5% of holding−10.4%−18.6%23,347Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-27Smith John AlandirectorSale2,810 @ $243.55$684K−10.7% of holding−10.4%−18.6%23,347Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-24ADAMS GINA F.directorSale4,770 @ $241.85$1.2M−26.7% of holding−6.2%−18.5%13,078Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-14SCHWAB SUSAN CdirectorSale3,980 @ $276.45$1.1M−30.9% of holding−10.0%−25.3%8,904Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-07Smith Richard WdirectorSale2,576 @ $276.93$713K−2.3% of holding−8.9%−19.7%111,886Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-07DIETRICH JOHN WdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $273.98$274K+12.4% of holding−8.9%−19.7%9,067Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-26LANE AMY BdirectorPurchase333 @ $276.06$92Kownership Δ n/a−1.4%−18.2%333Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

160 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Ellison Marvin RdirectorWithheld for tax2,09711,806Form 4
2026-08-28Ellison Marvin RdirectorOption exercise5,04213,903Form 4
2026-08-28Ellison Marvin RdirectorOption exercise5,0420Form 4
2026-08-17Talwar VishalofficerAward / grant1,48915,525Form 4
2026-08-07Smith Richard WdirectorOther acquisition253,9270Form 4
2026-06-30WALSH PAUL SdirectorOption exercise5,04221,401Form 4
2026-06-30WALSH PAUL SdirectorOption exercise5,0420Form 4
2026-06-25Brightman Tracy BofficerAward / grant3,5673,567Form 4
2026-06-25Carere BriedirectorAward / grant4,73428,296Form 4
2026-06-25Carere BriedirectorAward / grant3,5673,567Form 4
2026-06-25EDMUNDS MARK AdirectorAward / grant187187Form 4
2026-06-25MARTIN R BRADdirectorAward / grant8,71149,550Form 4
2026-06-25Preet KawalofficerAward / grant4,73415,687Form 4
2026-06-25Preet KawalofficerAward / grant3,5673,567Form 4
2026-06-25Ray Scott LofficerAward / grant4,73419,376Form 4
2026-06-25Ray Scott LofficerAward / grant3,5673,567Form 4
2026-06-25Russ Claude FofficerAward / grant1,6355,177Form 4
2026-06-25Russ Claude FofficerAward / grant792792Form 4
2026-06-25Smith Richard WdirectorAward / grant4,734113,629Form 4
2026-06-25Smith Richard WdirectorAward / grant3,5673,567Form 4
2026-06-25Subramaniam RajeshdirectorAward / grant14,591105,683Form 4
2026-06-25Subramaniam RajeshdirectorAward / grant10,99910,999Form 4
2026-06-25Brightman Tracy BofficerAward / grant4,73415,786Form 4
2026-06-25Talwar VishalofficerAward / grant3,5673,567Form 4
2026-06-25Talwar VishalofficerAward / grant4,73414,036Form 4
2026-06-25ADAMS GINA F.directorAward / grant3,5673,567Form 4
2026-06-25ADAMS GINA F.directorAward / grant4,73424,137Form 4
2026-05-05Griffith Susan PatriciadirectorWithheld for tax2,8048,365Form 4
2026-05-05Griffith Susan PatriciadirectorOption exercise2,78011,169Form 4
2026-05-05Griffith Susan PatriciadirectorOption exercise1,3438,389Form 4
2026-05-05Griffith Susan PatriciadirectorOption exercise1,3430Form 4
2026-05-05Griffith Susan PatriciadirectorOption exercise2,7800Form 4
2026-04-27GORMAN STEPHEN EdirectorWithheld for tax1,7856,552Form 4
2026-04-27GORMAN STEPHEN EdirectorOption exercise4,7278,337Form 4
2026-04-27GORMAN STEPHEN EdirectorOption exercise4,7270Form 4
2026-04-20Subramaniam RajeshdirectorWithheld for tax15,98491,092Form 4
2026-04-20Subramaniam RajeshdirectorOption exercise12,12097,891Form 4
2026-04-20Subramaniam RajeshdirectorOption exercise9,185107,076Form 4
2026-04-20Subramaniam RajeshdirectorOption exercise9,1850Form 4
2026-04-20Subramaniam RajeshdirectorOption exercise12,1200Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-24$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-04-212026-03-25$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-04-212026-03-19$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.