EYENational Vision Holdings, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.45 · now $16.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EYE has typically landed between $12.85 and $19.82 — a range of −21.9% to +20.5% from the issuance price $16.45.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,212 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-10-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EYE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12.85worst · -21.9%$19.82best · +20.5%
  • now $16.45 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.33 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.69–$17.98
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.85–$19.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,212 windows spanning 2017-10-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−61.9%−61.9%+7.4%
2020-02-20−61.1%−61.1%+6.9%
2023-02-15−58.0%−58.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+77.6%+0.0%+83.1%
2025-04-21+76.2%+0.0%+76.2%
2020-03-20+68.5%−2.6%+78.4%

2,212 overlapping windows · 2017-10-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+1.1%
n=9
Feb
67%
+1.8%
n=9
Mar
22%
−11.6%
n=9
Apr
44%
+0.4%
n=9
May
56%
+2.6%
n=9
Jun
67%
+4.5%
n=9
Jul
89%
+5.7%
n=9
Aug
44%
−3.2%
n=9
Sep
44%
−0.4%
n=9
Oct
38%
−0.3%
n=8
Nov
78%
+7.7%
n=9
Dec
44%
−0.1%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$29$152026-06-05: 1 insider purchase, $776K — Nicholson Michael J2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $929K — Wilkes Alexander2026-03-06: 2 insider sales, $345K — FAHS L READE …2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $254K — FAHS L READE2025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $48K — FAHS L READE2025-08-28: 2 insider sales, $3.3M — FAHS L READE …2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $3.3M2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $301K2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $776K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Nicholson Michael J — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Wilkes Alexander — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FAHS L READE — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FAHS L READE — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FAHS L READE — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FAHS L READE — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector FAHS L READE — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FAHS L READE — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-05Nicholson Michael JdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $15.52$776Kownership Δ n/a+24.4%not yet — horizon still open50,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11Wilkes AlexanderdirectorSale35,000 @ $26.54$929K−68.1% of holding−4.6%−48.5%16,431Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06FAHS L READEdirectorSale7,601 @ $29.58$225K−1.1% of holding−11.6%−55.2%694,880Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-06FAHS L READEdirectorSale4,071 @ $29.57$120K−1.1% of holding−11.6%−55.2%359,359Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-16FAHS L READEdirectorSale10,598 @ $23.93$254K−2.0% of holding+11.9%+15.6%532,195Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15FAHS L READEdirectorSale2,002 @ $23.81$48K−0.4% of holding+13.5%+16.5%542,793Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-28FAHS L READEdirectorSale72,730 @ $24.76$1.8M−11.8% of holding+22.4%+8.7%544,795Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-28FAHS L READEdirectorSale64,670 @ $23.85$1.5M−9.5% of holding+22.4%+8.7%617,525Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14Molony MeganofficerSale3,900 @ $18.90$74K−49.5% of holding+13.9%+15.8%3,975Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Acharya RaviofficerSale12,000 @ $18.75$225K−50.6% of holding+10.4%+10.9%11,700Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-01VanDette JosephofficerSale1,179 @ $12.71$15K−10.1% of holding+6.1%+71.3%10,444Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

270 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Cutler David GofficerWithheld for tax5,1107,888Form 4
2026-09-08Cutler David GofficerOption exercise12,99823,752Form 4
2026-09-08Cutler David GofficerOption exercise12,99812,998Form 4
2026-09-08Cutler David GofficerOption exercise12,99812,998Form 4
2026-09-08Cutler David GofficerOption exercise12,99812,998Form 4
2026-09-08Cutler David GofficerOption exercise12,99812,998Form 4
2026-09-02Moeddel AnaofficerWithheld for tax3,1149,708Form 4
2026-09-02Moeddel AnaofficerOption exercise11,39533,543Form 4
2026-09-02Moeddel AnaofficerOption exercise11,39512,822Form 4
2026-09-02Moeddel AnaofficerOption exercise11,39512,822Form 4
2026-09-02Moeddel AnaofficerOption exercise11,39512,822Form 4
2026-09-02Moeddel AnaofficerOption exercise11,39512,822Form 4
2026-08-19Wilkes AlexanderdirectorWithheld for tax29,88455,441Form 4
2026-08-19Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise61,786206,874Form 4
2026-08-19Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise61,78685,325Form 4
2026-08-19Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise61,78685,325Form 4
2026-08-19Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise61,78685,325Form 4
2026-08-19Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise61,78685,325Form 4
2026-08-19Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise61,78685,325Form 4
2026-08-19Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise61,78685,325Form 4
2026-07-31Wilkes AlexanderdirectorWithheld for tax6,66023,539Form 4
2026-07-31Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise13,768268,660Form 4
2026-07-31Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise13,76830,199Form 4
2026-07-31Wilkes AlexanderdirectorOption exercise13,76830,199Form 4
2026-07-08Banner MarkofficerWithheld for tax4,96424,603Form 4
2026-07-08Banner MarkofficerOption exercise11,72849,894Form 4
2026-07-08Banner MarkofficerOption exercise11,72829,567Form 4
2026-07-08Banner MarkofficerOption exercise11,72829,567Form 4
2026-06-17Johnson Susan SdirectorAward / grant11,35055,050Form 4
2026-06-17Armario JosedirectorAward / grant16,25866,159Form 4
2026-06-17Hepner Virginia AdirectorAward / grant11,35055,377Form 4
2026-06-17Kelman NaomidirectorAward / grant11,35052,391Form 4
2026-06-17McGrann James M.directorAward / grant11,35022,069Form 4
2026-06-17Nicholson Michael JdirectorAward / grant11,35022,069Form 4
2026-06-17OFarrell Susan CdirectorAward / grant14,57136,904Form 4
2026-06-17Zulla CaitlindirectorAward / grant16,25838,138Form 4
2026-04-29Brandman JaredofficerWithheld for tax84277,079Form 4
2026-04-29Brandman JaredofficerOption exercise1,89036,744Form 4
2026-04-29Brandman JaredofficerOption exercise1,89077,921Form 4
2026-04-29Brandman JaredofficerOption exercise1,89077,921Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.