Issued 2026-09-25 at $39.34 · now $39.34 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, EWTX has typically landed between $29.62 and $55.62 — a range of −24.7% to +41.4% from the issuance price $39.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,361 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($39.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EWTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $39.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $39.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.43 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.07–$43.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.62–$55.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,361 windows spanning 2021-03-26 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-06 | −59.1% | −59.1% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-10 | −58.3% | −58.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | −57.8% | −58.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-11 | +104.9% | +0.0% | +115.9% |
| 2024-09-16 | +95.7% | +0.0% | +95.7% |
| 2023-11-27 | +94.8% | −3.5% | +94.8% |
1,361 overlapping windows · 2021-03-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- January 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of EDG-5506 in Children With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (LYNX) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Phase 2 Study of EDG-5506 in Children and Adolescents With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Previously Treated With Gene Therapy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study of EDG-7500 in Adults With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (CIRRUS-HCM) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Open-Label Extension of EDG-5506 in Participants With Becker Muscular Dystrophy (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
80%
+17.0%
n=5
Feb
20%
−5.3%
n=5
Mar
40%
−9.8%
n=5
Apr
17%
−4.5%
n=6
May
50%
−2.1%
n=6
Jun
50%
−1.0%
n=6
Jul
33%
−0.7%
n=6
Aug
67%
−0.0%
n=6
Sep
50%
+7.3%
n=6
Oct
60%
+9.2%
n=5
Nov
40%
+7.1%
n=5
Dec
20%
+8.8%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 2,919 @ $43.41 | $127K | −25.3% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,625 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Sale | 8,782 @ $43.64 | $383K | −12.5% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,677 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Sale | 8,276 @ $43.66 | $361K | −13.4% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,401 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 3,238 @ $43.68 | $141K | −8.7% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 2,839 @ $43.78 | $124K | −15.7% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,227 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 2,779 @ $43.71 | $121K | −18.3% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,448 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Sale | 2,475 @ $43.70 | $108K | −7.2% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Sale | 2,439 @ $43.81 | $107K | −10.7% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Sale | 2,419 @ $43.80 | $106K | −12.0% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,697 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 2,273 @ $43.68 | $99K | −6.7% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,856 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Sale | 2,171 @ $43.79 | $95K | −5.9% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,755 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Sale | 913 @ $44.33 | $40K | −1.7% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,488 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 800 @ $44.52 | $36K | −6.5% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 390 @ $44.46 | $17K | −1.2% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,466 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Sale | 304 @ $44.50 | $14K | −0.9% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,451 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Sale | 150 @ $44.44 | $7K | −0.4% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 104 @ $44.43 | $5K | −0.8% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Sale | 99 @ $44.50 | $4K | −0.5% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,116 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Sale | 59 @ $44.41 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,215 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 130,352 @ $39.41 | $5.1M | −58.0% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 69,648 @ $39.41 | $2.7M | −73.9% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,555 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $38.57 | $1.9M | −92.0% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,367 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 5,230 @ $31.29 | $164K | −54.5% of holding | +10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,367 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 28,662 @ $32.31 | $926K | −74.9% of holding | −17.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,597 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 21,338 @ $32.12 | $685K | −69.0% of holding | −12.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,597 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-27 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 9,623 @ $30.98 | $298K | −37.1% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,332 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 6,735 @ $30.98 | $209K | −41.2% of holding | −11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,597 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Edris Badreddin | director | Sale | 66,477 @ $29.44 | $2.0M | −77.0% of holding | −0.3% | +26.1% | 19,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Edris Badreddin | director | Sale | 17,236 @ $29.44 | $507K | −14.2% of holding | −0.3% | +26.1% | 104,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Edris Badreddin | director | Sale | 13,690 @ $29.44 | $403K | −10.1% of holding | −0.3% | +26.1% | 121,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Edris Badreddin | director | Sale | 10,463 @ $29.44 | $308K | −10.8% of holding | −0.3% | +26.1% | 86,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Edris Badreddin | director | Sale | 7,605 @ $29.44 | $224K | −7.3% of holding | −0.3% | +26.1% | 96,760 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $21.12 | $2.1M | −81.0% of holding | +11.8% | +47.5% | 23,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Fox Jonathan C | director | Purchase | 10,700 @ $18.64 | $199K | +82.3% of holding | +8.2% | +48.2% | 23,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $14.60 | $1.5M | −81.0% of holding | −0.3% | +95.7% | 23,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Sale | 7,972 @ $13.39 | $107K | −20.7% of holding | +7.2% | +120.7% | 30,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 2,862 @ $13.39 | $38K | −10.1% of holding | +7.2% | +120.7% | 25,361 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Sale | 2,491 @ $13.39 | $33K | −9.5% of holding | +7.2% | +120.7% | 23,645 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Sale | 2,098 @ $13.39 | $28K | −17.0% of holding | +7.2% | +120.7% | 10,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 1,907 @ $13.39 | $26K | −7.5% of holding | +7.2% | +120.7% | 23,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Carruthers R Michael | director | Sale | 1,428 @ $13.39 | $19K | −1.6% of holding | +7.2% | +120.7% | 86,162 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 5,187 @ $16.45 | $85K | −19.4% of holding | −17.4% | −12.9% | 21,588 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Sale | 4,276 @ $16.45 | $70K | −17.2% of holding | −17.4% | −12.9% | 20,619 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Sale | 1,930 @ $16.45 | $32K | −22.8% of holding | −17.4% | −12.9% | 6,531 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Sale | 1,691 @ $16.45 | $28K | −7.7% of holding | −17.4% | −12.9% | 20,355 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 1,551 @ $16.45 | $26K | −7.7% of holding | −17.4% | −12.9% | 18,521 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Carruthers R Michael | director | Sale | 1,314 @ $16.45 | $22K | −1.6% of holding | −17.4% | −12.9% | 81,014 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Purchase | 372,578 @ $20.13 | $7.5M | +2.6% of holding | +16.8% | −10.2% | 14,809,075 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 372,578 @ $20.13 | $7.5M | +2.6% of holding | +16.8% | −10.2% | 14,809,075 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 124,193 @ $20.13 | $2.5M | +38.9% of holding | +16.8% | −10.2% | 443,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Purchase | 124,193 @ $20.13 | $2.5M | +38.9% of holding | +16.8% | −10.2% | 443,792 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 200 @ $30.02 | $6K | −1.3% of holding | −45.6% | −60.2% | 14,863 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Sale | 100 @ $30.00 | $3K | −0.7% of holding | −45.6% | −60.2% | 14,478 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $30.13 | $36K | −7.5% of holding | +3.5% | −61.5% | 14,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Sale | 900 @ $31.13 | $28K | −5.9% of holding | +3.5% | −61.5% | 14,478 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $30.03 | $300K | −37.3% of holding | −2.0% | −62.1% | 16,837 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Sale | 8,636 @ $30.03 | $259K | −37.4% of holding | −2.0% | −62.1% | 14,478 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 8,015 @ $30.02 | $241K | −35.0% of holding | −2.0% | −62.1% | 14,863 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $27.63 | $691K | −60.4% of holding | −1.9% | −54.4% | 16,358 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Russell Alan J | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $27.37 | $2.7M | −87.1% of holding | +1.2% | −58.8% | 14,863 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
185 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 6,718 | 22,713 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 5,781 | 11,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 6,718 | 20,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Award / grant | 32,500 | 32,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Nofi Michael | officer | Award / grant | 24,375 | 24,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Nofi Michael | officer | Award / grant | 48,750 | 48,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Option exercise | 7,031 | 37,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Option exercise | 5,781 | 30,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,781 | 11,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Option exercise | 7,031 | 18,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Option exercise | 5,781 | 11,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Option exercise | 5,781 | 11,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Option exercise | 7,031 | 21,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Award / grant | 32,500 | 32,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Donovan Joanne M. | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Option exercise | 17,969 | 48,584 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Option exercise | 21,875 | 70,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Option exercise | 5,781 | 29,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 36,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Option exercise | 17,969 | 35,938 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Option exercise | 21,875 | 65,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | KOCH KEVIN | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | MOORE JOHN R | officer | Option exercise | 5,781 | 15,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Option exercise | 7,031 | 21,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Award / grant | 32,500 | 32,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Award / grant | 65,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Derakhshan Behrad | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Russell Alan J | director | Option exercise | 5,781 | 11,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Russell Alan J | director | Option exercise | 130,352 | 154,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Russell Alan J | director | Option exercise | 69,648 | 224,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Russell Alan J | director | Option exercise | 130,352 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Russell Alan J | director | Option exercise | 69,648 | 1,077,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fox Jonathan C | director | Award / grant | 319 | 24,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | ROOT JONATHAN D | director | Award / grant | 16,377 | 16,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Brege Laura | director | Award / grant | 16,377 | 16,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Award / grant | 16,377 | 16,377 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.