Issued 2026-09-16 at $73.46 · now $73.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ETSY has typically landed between $57.27 and $91.83 — a range of −22.0% to +25.0% from the issuance price $73.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,839 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-04-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($73.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ETSY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $73.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $73.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $71.84 (-2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $64.98–$78.69
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $57.27–$91.83
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,839 windows spanning 2015-04-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-04 | −44.3% | −49.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −41.7% | −41.7% | +14.8% |
| 2020-03-03 | −39.1% | −45.6% | +7.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-02 | +94.5% | +0.0% | +99.1% |
| 2020-03-20 | +93.7% | +0.0% | +105.3% |
| 2020-04-03 | +90.8% | +0.0% | +90.8% |
2,839 overlapping windows · 2015-04-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
55%
−0.2%
n=11
Feb
64%
+7.7%
n=11
Mar
18%
−8.0%
n=11
Apr
55%
+5.7%
n=11
May
50%
+0.5%
n=12
Jun
58%
+6.1%
n=12
Jul
75%
+12.6%
n=12
Aug
58%
−1.3%
n=12
Sep
58%
+1.2%
n=12
Oct
9%
−6.6%
n=11
Nov
55%
+9.3%
n=11
Dec
45%
−1.4%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 1,671 @ $84.00 | $140K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 249,559 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Sale | 1,344 @ $81.39 | $109K | −16.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,982 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Sale | 1,090 @ $82.05 | $89K | −11.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,326 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Sale | 479 @ $84.24 | $40K | −6.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,503 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 15,499 @ $82.04 | $1.3M | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 401,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 7,537 @ $82.13 | $619K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 249,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 4,501 @ $81.22 | $366K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 416,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 4,159 @ $81.33 | $338K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 257,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | BALLARD CHARLES ANDREW | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $81.85 | $368K | −51.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,239 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Buckley Merilee | officer | Sale | 238 @ $79.20 | $19K | −58.8% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Blow Marla J | director | Sale | 217 @ $79.34 | $17K | −1.6% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,107 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Buckley Merilee | officer | Sale | 166 @ $79.92 | $13K | −99.4% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Blow Marla J | director | Sale | 68 @ $79.90 | $5K | −0.5% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,039 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Blow Marla J | director | Sale | 15 @ $81.22 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,024 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Buckley Merilee | officer | Sale | 1 @ $81.16 | $81 | −100.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Sale | 5,684 @ $81.93 | $466K | −41.7% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,932 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Sale | 1,139 @ $81.34 | $93K | −7.7% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Sale | 989 @ $83.02 | $82K | −12.5% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Sale | 440 @ $83.98 | $37K | −6.3% of holding | −10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,503 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 6,294 @ $84.00 | $529K | −2.5% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 249,559 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Baker Charles | officer | Sale | 1,053 @ $85.77 | $90K | −8.3% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Baker Charles | officer | Sale | 352 @ $86.62 | $30K | −3.0% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,357 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Baker Charles | officer | Sale | 159 @ $84.94 | $14K | −1.2% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 32,048 @ $83.28 | $2.7M | −11.4% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 249,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 16,059 @ $83.37 | $1.3M | −3.7% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 421,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 9,060 @ $82.51 | $748K | −5.0% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,932 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 3,941 @ $82.60 | $326K | −0.9% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 437,388 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 22,881 @ $84.00 | $1.9M | −14.1% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | REIFF MELISSA | director | Sale | 3,855 @ $85.00 | $328K | −18.0% of holding | −6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 39,161 @ $79.00 | $3.1M | −21.9% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,884 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Buckley Merilee | officer | Sale | 564 @ $75.09 | $42K | −43.9% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Buckley Merilee | officer | Sale | 315 @ $75.81 | $24K | −43.6% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 407 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Buckley Merilee | officer | Sale | 2 @ $77.14 | $154 | −0.5% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 38,910 @ $74.05 | $2.9M | −16.8% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,378 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 29,297 @ $75.26 | $2.2M | −15.2% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 164,081 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 24,197 @ $75.95 | $1.8M | −14.7% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,884 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 7,324 @ $73.29 | $537K | −1.6% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 454,005 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 5,208 @ $74.16 | $386K | −1.1% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 448,797 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 4,901 @ $75.42 | $370K | −1.1% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 443,896 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 2,567 @ $76.05 | $195K | −0.6% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 441,329 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-24 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 97,389 @ $79.00 | $7.7M | −42.7% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | REIFF MELISSA | director | Sale | 3,544 @ $75.00 | $266K | −16.8% of holding | +15.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,613 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 52,479 @ $74.00 | $3.9M | −28.6% of holding | +15.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,694 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $72.50 | $3.6M | −27.7% of holding | +15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 81,980 @ $69.09 | $5.7M | −38.5% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 52,750 @ $68.57 | $3.6M | −19.9% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 212,674 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $68.59 | $960K | −2.9% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 467,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $69.26 | $416K | −1.3% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 9,311 @ $60.92 | $567K | −1.9% of holding | +26.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 492,018 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 5,957 @ $61.95 | $369K | −1.2% of holding | +26.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 486,061 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | WILSON FREDERICK R | director | Sale | 4,732 @ $62.64 | $296K | −1.0% of holding | +26.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 481,329 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Blow Marla J | director | Sale | 272 @ $58.22 | $16K | −3.1% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,619 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Blow Marla J | director | Sale | 28 @ $58.50 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,591 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Baker Charles | officer | Sale | 1,703 @ $63.40 | $108K | −19.0% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,240 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | Baker Charles | officer | Sale | 327 @ $64.00 | $21K | −4.5% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,913 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Sale | 4,776 @ $65.09 | $311K | −42.3% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 74,273 @ $64.11 | $4.8M | −33.9% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 144,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 14,077 @ $64.54 | $909K | −9.7% of holding | +5.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,694 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 36,443 @ $69.00 | $2.5M | −21.8% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Silverman Josh | director | Sale | 70,000 @ $65.00 | $4.5M | −34.9% of holding | −11.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 130,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
208 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 1,671 | 251,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 1,671 | 4,793 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,551 | 9,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 11,696 | 261,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Option exercise | 6,464 | 12,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Option exercise | 6,464 | 71,101 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 11,696 | 6,464 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Option exercise | 1,229 | 14,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Option exercise | 1,229 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 6,294 | 255,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 6,294 | 18,160 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 41,108 | 180,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 41,108 | 24,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Baker Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,443 | 12,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Baker Charles | officer | Option exercise | 6,225 | 16,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Baker Charles | officer | Option exercise | 6,225 | 62,246 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 22,881 | 162,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | REIFF MELISSA | director | Option exercise | 3,855 | 21,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | REIFF MELISSA | director | Option exercise | 3,855 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 22,881 | 65,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 39,161 | 179,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 39,161 | 88,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 92,404 | 232,288 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | PATEL GOYAL KRUTI | director | Withheld for tax | 11,801 | 111,092 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Withheld for tax | 11,372 | 139,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Stretch Colin | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,404 | 56,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,932 | 13,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Minor Bradley | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,741 | 19,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Baker Charles | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,992 | 10,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Buckley Merilee | officer | Withheld for tax | 728 | 1,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Stretch Colin | officer | Option exercise | 16,847 | 66,933 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 92,404 | 127,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 13,260 | 92,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 7,302 | 51,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Silverman Josh | director | Option exercise | 20,562 | 151,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Option exercise | 7,218 | 79,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Option exercise | 1,067 | 7,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Colburn Richard Edward III | officer | Option exercise | 752 | 5,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Buckley Merilee | officer | Option exercise | 634 | 6,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Buckley Merilee | officer | Option exercise | 730 | 5,112 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2023-12-06 | 2023-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-07-11 | 2023-06-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-06-12 | 2023-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2023-06-11 | 2023-05-08 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2023-05-19 | 2023-04-27 | $1–15K |
| Tommy Tuberville | Senate | sale | 2023-05-11 | 2023-04-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-04-07 | 2023-03-14 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2023-02-17 | 2023-01-11 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2022-12-06 | 2022-11-03 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.