ETNEaton Corporation plcIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $439.98 · now $439.98 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ETN has typically landed between $392.49 and $502.43 — a range of −10.8% to +14.2% from the issuance price $439.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($439.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ETN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $439.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$392.49worst · -10.8%$502.43best · +14.2%
  • now $439.98 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $448.77 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $421.24–$476.29
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $392.49–$502.43
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−44.5%−44.5%+0.0%
2008-09-23−38.0%−38.0%+0.0%
2020-02-20−37.7%−37.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+36.6%+0.0%+36.6%
2009-07-09+35.5%+0.0%+35.5%
2009-07-10+34.8%+0.0%+35.1%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$156.9B
market cap
$10.23
EPS (TTM)
39.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$27.4B
'20'25
Net income$4.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr21.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.57
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $439.98$159.13$525.25
  • DCF (intrinsic)$184.38
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$313.58
  • Analyst target · range $428.00–$500.00$480.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$439.98

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.2%
n=18
Feb
68%
+3.6%
n=19
Mar
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.1%
n=19
May
58%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Jul
63%
+3.2%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.3%
n=19
Oct
78%
+3.1%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.3%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$460$3142026-08-13: 1 insider purchase, $59K — Johnson Gerald2026-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $33K — Johnson Gerald2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $8.3M — Monesmith Heath B.2026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $231K — Wadecki Adam A2026-05-22: 1 insider sale, $64K — Thompson Dorothy C2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $200K — Galvao Antonio2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $90K — Johnson Gerald2026-05-08: 1 insider purchase, $300K — Johnson Gerald2026-05-06: 2 insider sales, $8.3M — Monesmith Heath B., Denk Peter2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Yelton Michael2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $4.2M — RUIZ STERNADT PAULO2025-11-18: 1 insider purchase, $68K — Johnson Gerald2025-10-31: 1 insider purchase, $38K — Johnson Gerald2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $36K2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $5.7M2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $38K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $68K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $4.2M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.3M2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $390K2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $8.6M2026-08: 2 open-market purchases, $92K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $8.5M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Johnson Gerald — Purchase on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Johnson Gerald — Purchase on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Monesmith Heath B. — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wadecki Adam A — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Thompson Dorothy C — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed same dayofficer Galvao Antonio — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Johnson Gerald — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Johnson Gerald — Purchase on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Monesmith Heath B. — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Denk Peter — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Yelton Michael — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RUIZ STERNADT PAULO — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Johnson Gerald — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Johnson Gerald — Purchase on 2025-10-31, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Johnson GeralddirectorPurchase130 @ $455.90$59K+7.7% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open1,829Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12Johnson GeralddirectorPurchase70 @ $469.93$33K+4.3% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open1,699Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerSale18,036 @ $458.04$8.3M−26.4% of holding−9.3%not yet — horizon still open50,368Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04Wadecki Adam AofficerSale525 @ $440.54$231K−33.2% of holding−11.1%not yet — horizon still open1,054Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-22Thompson Dorothy CdirectorSale167 @ $385.00$64K−13.2% of holding+4.8%not yet — horizon still open1,096Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-13Galvao AntonioofficerSale494 @ $405.86$200K−5.1% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open9,175Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Johnson GeralddirectorPurchase215 @ $419.02$90K+15.2% of holding−8.5%not yet — horizon still open1,629Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Johnson GeralddirectorPurchase746 @ $402.29$300K+111.7% of holding+0.1%not yet — horizon still open1,414Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-06Monesmith Heath B.officerSale18,367 @ $409.11$7.5M−26.9% of holding−6.3%not yet — horizon still open49,822Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06Denk PeterofficerSale2,000 @ $417.94$836K−22.0% of holding−6.3%not yet — horizon still open7,102Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Yelton MichaelofficerSale3,494 @ $374.14$1.3M−62.5% of holding+0.1%−5.2%2,096Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-12RUIZ STERNADT PAULOdirectorSale10,707 @ $390.26$4.2M−27.9% of holding−5.4%+1.8%27,729Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Johnson GeralddirectorPurchase200 @ $339.89$68K+100.0% of holding−9.1%+0.3%400Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-31Johnson GeralddirectorPurchase100 @ $384.33$38K+100.0% of holding−12.4%+1.6%200Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-11Johnson GeralddirectorPurchase100 @ $361.00$36Kownership Δ n/a−2.0%−4.4%100Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07LEONETTI OLIVIERofficerSale9,936 @ $358.40$3.6M−94.0% of holding−5.6%−5.8%630Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07LEONETTI OLIVIERofficerSale3,646 @ $358.50$1.3M−85.3% of holding−5.6%−5.8%630Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07LEONETTI OLIVIERofficerSale2,436 @ $358.19$873K−79.5% of holding−5.6%−5.8%630Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-20Thompson Dorothy CdirectorSale140 @ $327.21$46K−15.1% of holding+0.4%−8.3%790Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14Monesmith Heath B.officerSale9,103 @ $330.89$3.0M−13.0% of holding−3.3%−4.1%60,675Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12ARNOLD CRAIGdirectorSale51,854 @ $323.21$16.8M−9.5% of holding−2.0%+1.0%495,990Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12ARNOLD CRAIGdirectorSale45,850 @ $322.12$14.8M−7.7% of holding−2.0%+1.0%547,844Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12ARNOLD CRAIGdirectorSale5,782 @ $323.74$1.9M−1.2% of holding−2.0%+1.0%490,208Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08ARNOLD CRAIGdirectorSale41,320 @ $305.29$12.6M−7.6% of holding−0.0%+4.3%499,178Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-08ARNOLD CRAIGdirectorSale9,734 @ $306.03$3.0M−2.0% of holding−0.0%+4.3%489,444Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07MARSHALL ERNEST W JRdirectorSale15,632 @ $300.05$4.7M−30.3% of holding+2.9%+6.5%36,021Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07MARSHALL ERNEST W JRdirectorSale1,018 @ $300.02$305K−2.7% of holding+2.9%+6.5%36,021Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06Yelton MichaelofficerSale2,120 @ $296.87$629K−38.5% of holding+3.4%+5.5%3,382Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06Denk PeterofficerSale1,315 @ $298.85$393K−17.4% of holding+3.4%+5.5%6,230Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

271 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Black Shawn MofficerAward / grant4,6054,605Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerOption exercise18,03668,404Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerOption exercise76450,586Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerWithheld for tax21850,368Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerOption exercise58351,392Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerWithheld for tax21851,174Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerOption exercise65851,026Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerWithheld for tax21750,809Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerOption exercise18,0360Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerOption exercise58312,417Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerOption exercise65810,842Form 4
2026-08-11Monesmith Heath B.officerOption exercise76418,036Form 4
2026-08-06Yelton MichaelofficerOption exercise6582,754Form 4
2026-08-06Yelton MichaelofficerWithheld for tax2212,533Form 4
2026-08-06Yelton MichaelofficerOption exercise6581,742Form 4
2026-05-06Napoli SilviodirectorWithheld for tax2991,756Form 4
2026-05-06Terrell Karenann KdirectorWithheld for tax1501,285Form 4
2026-05-06PRAGADA ROBERT VdirectorWithheld for tax1501,688Form 4
2026-05-06PAGE GREGORY RdirectorWithheld for tax15044,090Form 4
2026-05-06Thompson Dorothy CdirectorWithheld for tax1501,263Form 4
2026-05-06Pianalto SandradirectorWithheld for tax1502,488Form 4
2026-05-06Ryerkerk LoridirectorWithheld for tax1502,288Form 4
2026-05-06Wilson Darryl L.directorWithheld for tax1501,788Form 4
2026-05-06Johnson GeralddirectorWithheld for tax85668Form 4
2026-05-06Pianalto SandradirectorOption exercise6212,638Form 4
2026-05-06Ryerkerk LoridirectorOption exercise6212,438Form 4
2026-05-06Wilson Darryl L.directorOption exercise6210Form 4
2026-05-06Thompson Dorothy CdirectorOption exercise6211,413Form 4
2026-05-06Pianalto SandradirectorOption exercise6210Form 4
2026-05-06Wilson Darryl L.directorAward / grant470470Form 4
2026-05-06Ryerkerk LoridirectorAward / grant470470Form 4
2026-05-06Terrell Karenann KdirectorOption exercise6211,435Form 4
2026-05-06PRAGADA ROBERT VdirectorAward / grant470470Form 4
2026-05-06PRAGADA ROBERT VdirectorOption exercise6210Form 4
2026-05-06Wilson Darryl L.directorOption exercise6211,938Form 4
2026-05-06Terrell Karenann KdirectorOption exercise6210Form 4
2026-05-06Pianalto SandradirectorAward / grant470470Form 4
2026-05-06PAGE GREGORY RdirectorAward / grant470470Form 4
2026-05-06PAGE GREGORY RdirectorOption exercise6210Form 4
2026-05-06Terrell Karenann KdirectorAward / grant470470Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Tim WalbergHousepurchase2026-06-032025-02-07$15–50K
Elizabeth FletcherHousesale2026-05-012026-04-08$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-03-062026-02-26$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-02-152026-01-29$1–15K
John HickenlooperSenatepurchase2026-02-062026-01-14$50–100K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-02-022026-01-16$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-01-122025-12-24$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2025-12-192025-12-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.