Issued 2026-09-16 at $85.03 · now $85.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ESTC has typically landed between $65.13 and $108.05 — a range of −23.4% to +27.1% from the issuance price $85.03.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,975 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($85.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ESTC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $85.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $85.03 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $84.58 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $76.16–$93
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $65.13–$108.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,975 windows spanning 2018-10-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-11 | −40.9% | −40.9% | +4.9% |
| 2020-02-18 | −39.7% | −39.7% | +0.9% |
| 2022-04-19 | −39.7% | −43.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-03 | +59.9% | −1.5% | +59.9% |
| 2023-11-09 | +59.5% | +0.0% | +59.5% |
| 2023-11-06 | +58.3% | +0.0% | +62.3% |
1,975 overlapping windows · 2018-10-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+2.3%
n=8
Feb
63%
−0.2%
n=8
Mar
13%
−13.2%
n=8
Apr
50%
+0.8%
n=8
May
50%
+8.9%
n=8
Jun
63%
+2.7%
n=8
Jul
75%
+8.9%
n=8
Aug
63%
+3.4%
n=8
Sep
25%
−1.2%
n=8
Oct
43%
−1.5%
n=7
Nov
63%
+5.7%
n=8
Dec
50%
+0.0%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 69,121 @ $84.50 | $5.8M | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,925,649 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 15,086 @ $85.30 | $1.3M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,910,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 6,101 @ $85.16 | $520K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,994,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 100 @ $87.00 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,994,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 127,892 @ $86.55 | $11.1M | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,022,088 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Sale | 29,227 @ $87.78 | $2.6M | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 599,525 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 14,991 @ $88.08 | $1.3M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,007,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Sale | 9,673 @ $87.78 | $849K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 288,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Welihinda Navam | director | Sale | 8,961 @ $87.78 | $787K | −4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 200,293 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 6,577 @ $87.78 | $577K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,149,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 6,126 @ $88.28 | $541K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,000,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Herzog Carolyn | officer | Sale | 5,485 @ $87.78 | $481K | −4.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 112,954 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Bone Jane E | officer | Sale | 1,542 @ $87.78 | $135K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 47,697 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 66,266 @ $92.39 | $6.1M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,170,174 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 10,400 @ $93.68 | $974K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,159,774 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 3,217 @ $94.10 | $303K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,156,557 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 700 @ $95.05 | $67K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,236,440 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 108,052 @ $94.40 | $10.2M | −2.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,242,706 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 66,382 @ $93.45 | $6.2M | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,350,758 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 18,631 @ $94.01 | $1.8M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,560,049 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 5,566 @ $95.06 | $529K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,237,140 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 3,771 @ $94.40 | $356K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,554,978 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $94.66 | $123K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,558,749 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 97,199 @ $89.71 | $8.7M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,646,652 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 42,456 @ $90.69 | $3.9M | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,604,196 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 25,516 @ $91.67 | $2.3M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,578,680 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 97,599 @ $92.48 | $9.0M | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,757,379 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 13,528 @ $93.47 | $1.3M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,743,851 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Herzog Carolyn | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $93.67 | $937K | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 118,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Bone Jane E | officer | Sale | 4,176 @ $93.48 | $390K | −7.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 49,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 108,423 @ $96.17 | $10.4M | −5.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,946,555 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 87,423 @ $96.77 | $8.5M | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,859,132 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 4,154 @ $97.75 | $406K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,854,978 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Sale | 40,373 @ $60.61 | $2.4M | −6.0% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 628,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Exner Ken | officer | Sale | 18,449 @ $60.61 | $1.1M | −4.9% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 360,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Sale | 18,439 @ $60.61 | $1.1M | −5.8% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,211 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Welihinda Navam | director | Sale | 12,961 @ $60.61 | $786K | −5.8% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,254 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Herzog Carolyn | officer | Sale | 9,485 @ $60.61 | $575K | −6.9% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,439 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 9,288 @ $60.61 | $563K | −0.2% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,417,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Bone Jane E | officer | Sale | 1,104 @ $60.61 | $67K | −2.0% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Sale | 17,756 @ $52.28 | $928K | −4.2% of holding | −8.4% | +52.5% | 409,145 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Exner Ken | officer | Sale | 4,310 @ $52.28 | $225K | −1.9% of holding | −8.4% | +52.5% | 222,728 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 4,283 @ $52.28 | $224K | −0.1% of holding | −8.4% | +52.5% | 4,354,945 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Herzog Carolyn | officer | Sale | 3,989 @ $52.28 | $209K | −4.5% of holding | −8.4% | +52.5% | 85,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Sale | 3,723 @ $52.28 | $195K | −2.4% of holding | −8.4% | +52.5% | 152,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Welihinda Navam | director | Sale | 3,240 @ $52.28 | $169K | −2.6% of holding | −8.4% | +52.5% | 120,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Bone Jane E | officer | Sale | 887 @ $52.28 | $46K | −2.1% of holding | −8.4% | +52.5% | 42,284 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Bone Jane E | officer | Sale | 1,187 @ $80.31 | $95K | −2.7% of holding | −19.1% | −29.6% | 43,171 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $74.07 | $237K | −0.7% of holding | −3.2% | −30.0% | 428,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $75.29 | $98K | −0.3% of holding | −3.2% | −30.0% | 427,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Sale | 500 @ $76.17 | $38K | −0.1% of holding | −3.2% | −30.0% | 426,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Welihinda Navam | director | Sale | 1,046 @ $74.51 | $78K | −0.8% of holding | −4.2% | −32.0% | 123,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Sale | 20,413 @ $75.05 | $1.5M | −4.5% of holding | +3.3% | −28.0% | 431,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Exner Ken | officer | Sale | 6,544 @ $75.05 | $491K | −2.8% of holding | +3.3% | −28.0% | 227,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Herzog Carolyn | officer | Sale | 5,353 @ $75.05 | $402K | −5.7% of holding | +3.3% | −28.0% | 89,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Sale | 5,198 @ $75.05 | $390K | −3.2% of holding | +3.3% | −28.0% | 156,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Banon Shay | director | Sale | 4,552 @ $75.05 | $342K | −0.1% of holding | +3.3% | −28.0% | 4,359,228 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Welihinda Navam | director | Sale | 4,327 @ $75.05 | $325K | −3.3% of holding | +3.3% | −28.0% | 124,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Bone Jane E | officer | Sale | 2,408 @ $75.05 | $181K | −5.1% of holding | +3.3% | −28.0% | 44,358 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Sale | 5,800 @ $74.60 | $433K | −3.5% of holding | +2.4% | −26.1% | 161,484 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | Banon Shay | director | Award / grant | 40,231 | 4,426,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Bone Jane E | officer | Award / grant | 12,069 | 54,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Award / grant | 48,616 | 201,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Award / grant | 34,725 | 236,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Award / grant | 80,463 | 316,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Herzog Carolyn | officer | Award / grant | 20,140 | 105,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Herzog Carolyn | officer | Award / grant | 32,185 | 137,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Exner Ken | officer | Award / grant | 48,616 | 271,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Award / grant | 111,123 | 520,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Banon Shay | director | Award / grant | 31,252 | 4,386,197 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Exner Ken | officer | Award / grant | 34,725 | 306,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Exner Ken | officer | Award / grant | 72,417 | 378,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Welihinda Navam | director | Award / grant | 56,324 | 222,215 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Welihinda Navam | director | Award / grant | 45,144 | 165,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Award / grant | 148,857 | 669,125 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-08 | Bone Jane E | officer | Award / grant | 9,133 | 46,766 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-13 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Award / grant | 456,491 | 456,491 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Gleeson Alison | director | Award / grant | 2,663 | 11,906 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Leibowitz Shelley B | director | Award / grant | 2,663 | 10,906 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Puttagunta Chetan | director | Award / grant | 2,663 | 13,393 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Marooney Caryn | director | Award / grant | 2,663 | 16,722 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Auvil Paul R. III | director | Award / grant | 2,663 | 27,956 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Herzog Carolyn | officer | Award / grant | 2,918 | 82,903 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Exner Ken | officer | Award / grant | 69,451 | 237,412 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Welihinda Navam | director | Award / grant | 37,620 | 136,186 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Exner Ken | officer | Award / grant | 4,690 | 167,961 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Award / grant | 13,548 | 385,139 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Kulkarni Ashutosh | director | Award / grant | 92,603 | 477,742 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Award / grant | 4,690 | 101,506 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Banon Shay | director | Award / grant | 3,908 | 4,539,364 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Banon Shay | director | Award / grant | 26,044 | 4,565,408 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Herzog Carolyn | officer | Award / grant | 16,784 | 99,687 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-08 | Dodds Mark Eugene | officer | Award / grant | 69,451 | 170,957 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-08 | Welihinda Navam | director | Award / grant | 98,566 | 98,566 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-14 | Prengel Eric Theodore | officer | Award / grant | 19,221 | 62,844 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.