EMEEMCOR Group, Inc.Industrials · Engineering & Constructionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $739.46 · now $739.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EME has typically landed between $662.09 and $870.96 — a range of −10.5% to +17.8% from the issuance price $739.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($739.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where EME has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $739.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$662.09worst · -10.5%$870.96best · +17.8%
  • now $739.46 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $755.94 (+2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $707.43–$804.45
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $662.09–$870.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-14−44.7%−44.7%+2.6%
2020-02-20−44.4%−45.9%+0.5%
2020-02-18−43.6%−44.1%+3.8%
3 best
2008-11-20+78.4%+0.0%+95.3%
2008-11-19+66.6%−9.4%+76.9%
2008-12-01+65.0%+0.0%+65.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$33.2B
market cap
$29.77
EPS (TTM)
25.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$17.0B
'20'25
Net income$1.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr34.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.23
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $739.46$272.71$1,161
  • DCF (intrinsic)$333.99
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$912.54
  • Analyst target · range $918.00–$1,100$945.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$739.46

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.1%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.3%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.5%
n=19
Apr
68%
+5.0%
n=19
May
47%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.4%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
72%
+3.7%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.8%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$943$5812026-06-17: 1 insider sale, $802K — Lowe Carol P2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Reid William P2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $2.2M — Altmeyer John W2026-04-30: 3 insider sales, $6.3M — Schwarzwaelder Steven, Nalbandian Jason R, Lind Robert Peter2026-03-05: 1 insider sale, $26.3M — Guzzi Anthony2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Mauricio Maxine Lum2025-12-23: 1 insider sale, $200 — Lind Robert Peter2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $897K — Walker-Lee Robin A2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $897K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $2002026-03: 2 open-market sales, $28.7M2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $6.3M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $4.1M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $802K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Lowe Carol P — Sale on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Reid William P — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Altmeyer John W — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Schwarzwaelder Steven — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Nalbandian Jason R — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Lind Robert Peter — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Guzzi Anthony — Sale on 2026-03-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Mauricio Maxine Lum — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lind Robert Peter — Sale on 2025-12-23, filed 13 days after the tradedirector Walker-Lee Robin A — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-17Lowe Carol PdirectorSale950 @ $844.50$802K−5.2% of holding−10.5%not yet — horizon still open17,278Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Reid William PdirectorSale2,000 @ $925.78$1.9M−16.5% of holding−14.7%not yet — horizon still open10,149Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Altmeyer John WdirectorSale2,500 @ $895.00$2.2M−6.9% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open33,616Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-30Schwarzwaelder StevendirectorSale5,602 @ $895.19$5.0M−26.1% of holding−12.4%not yet — horizon still open15,875Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-30Nalbandian Jason RofficerSale800 @ $856.43$685K−4.2% of holding−12.4%not yet — horizon still open18,157Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-30Lind Robert PeterofficerSale675 @ $894.27$604K−13.8% of holding−12.4%not yet — horizon still open4,216Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05Guzzi AnthonydirectorSale36,000 @ $729.48$26.3M−17.5% of holding+8.4%−10.9%170,299Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-02Mauricio Maxine LumdirectorSale3,357 @ $735.00$2.5M−12.3% of holding+5.3%−12.4%23,853Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-23Lind Robert PeterofficerSale0 @ $625.09$200−0.0% of holding+12.3%+21.2%4,797Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade
2025-11-03Walker-Lee Robin AdirectorSale1,325 @ $677.22$897K−17.7% of holding−9.2%+32.3%6,140Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-06Nalbandian Jason RofficerSale750 @ $485.54$364K−4.0% of holding+7.3%+12.6%18,173Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-06Lind Robert PeterofficerSale447 @ $485.37$217K−8.1% of holding+7.3%+12.6%5,046Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-05Guzzi AnthonydirectorSale7,000 @ $436.03$3.1M−3.2% of holding+4.9%+32.6%208,989Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-01Walker-Lee Robin AdirectorSale947 @ $412.83$391K−11.8% of holding+7.7%+34.8%7,094Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13Mauricio Maxine LumdirectorSale1,250 @ $370.07$463K−4.3% of holding+5.8%+48.9%27,642Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28Altmeyer John WdirectorSale2,000 @ $404.95$810K−5.3% of holding−4.0%+42.6%35,615Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-31Guzzi AnthonydirectorAward / grant13167,325Form 4
2026-07-31Mauricio Maxine LumdirectorAward / grant422,484Form 4
2026-07-31Nalbandian Jason RofficerAward / grant418,161Form 4
2026-07-31Altmeyer John WdirectorAward / grant333,923Form 4
2026-06-04ROCHE PATRICK JdirectorAward / grant304462Form 4
2026-06-04Schwarzwaelder StevendirectorAward / grant23016,105Form 4
2026-06-04Walker-Lee Robin AdirectorAward / grant2306,370Form 4
2026-06-04MCEVOY M KEVINdirectorAward / grant23013,559Form 4
2026-06-04Altmeyer John WdirectorAward / grant30433,920Form 4
2026-06-04DAHL AMY EdirectorAward / grant230908Form 4
2026-06-04Johnson Ronald LdirectorAward / grant2305,424Form 4
2026-06-04Lowe Carol PdirectorAward / grant30418,228Form 4
2026-04-30Mauricio Maxine LumdirectorAward / grant422,480Form 4
2026-04-30Guzzi AnthonydirectorGift3,000167,312Form 4
2026-04-30Reid William PdirectorAward / grant112,149Form 4
2026-04-30Guzzi AnthonydirectorAward / grant13170,312Form 4
2026-04-30Nalbandian Jason RofficerAward / grant418,957Form 4
2026-04-30Altmeyer John WdirectorAward / grant236,116Form 4
2026-03-17Mauricio Maxine LumdirectorGift1,37722,476Form 4
2026-02-27Guzzi AnthonydirectorWithheld for tax8,303206,299Form 4
2026-02-27Mauricio Maxine LumdirectorWithheld for tax1,70927,210Form 4
2026-02-27Nalbandian Jason RofficerWithheld for tax73418,953Form 4
2026-02-27Lind Robert PeterofficerWithheld for tax2334,891Form 4
2026-01-30Guzzi AnthonydirectorAward / grant25214,602Form 4
2026-01-30Altmeyer John WdirectorAward / grant436,114Form 4
2026-01-30Lowe Carol PdirectorAward / grant117,924Form 4
2026-01-30Nalbandian Jason RofficerAward / grant419,687Form 4
2026-01-30Reid William PdirectorAward / grant112,148Form 4
2026-01-30Mauricio Maxine LumdirectorAward / grant628,919Form 4
2026-01-02Nalbandian Jason RofficerAward / grant1,50719,683Form 4
2026-01-02Guzzi AnthonydirectorAward / grant7,261214,577Form 4
2026-01-02Mauricio Maxine LumdirectorAward / grant1,50728,913Form 4
2026-01-02Lind Robert PeterofficerAward / grant3275,124Form 4
2025-12-08Lind Robert PeterofficerWithheld for tax2494,797Form 4
2025-10-30Altmeyer John WdirectorAward / grant236,110Form 4
2025-10-30Mauricio Maxine LumdirectorAward / grant327,406Form 4
2025-10-30Nalbandian Jason RofficerAward / grant118,176Form 4
2025-10-30Guzzi AnthonydirectorAward / grant12207,316Form 4
2025-10-30Reid William PdirectorAward / grant112,147Form 4
2025-10-27ROCHE PATRICK JdirectorAward / grant158158Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2026-06-052026-05-28$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-10$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-09$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-04-062026-03-03$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-03-102026-02-04$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousepurchase2026-03-102026-02-27$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-12-082025-11-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.