Issued 2026-09-16 at $49.12 · now $49.12 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ELVN has typically landed between $36.98 and $67.65 — a range of −24.7% to +37.7% from the issuance price $49.12.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,615 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-03-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($49.12) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ELVN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $49.12 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $49.12 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49.13 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $43.61–$54.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $36.98–$67.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,615 windows spanning 2020-03-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-06-11 | −59.7% | −59.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-06-19 | −56.9% | −56.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-06-09 | −56.8% | −56.8% | +3.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +157.5% | +0.0% | +161.2% |
| 2020-05-04 | +146.2% | +0.0% | +146.2% |
| 2020-05-08 | +133.2% | −5.0% | +133.2% |
1,615 overlapping windows · 2020-03-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.7%
n=6
Feb
67%
+5.3%
n=6
Mar
67%
+4.8%
n=6
Apr
29%
−6.4%
n=7
May
29%
+13.7%
n=7
Jun
86%
+6.9%
n=7
Jul
29%
−7.9%
n=7
Aug
57%
−2.3%
n=7
Sep
43%
+8.0%
n=7
Oct
50%
+12.5%
n=6
Nov
17%
+3.6%
n=6
Dec
17%
−10.7%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 4,630 @ $58.35 | $270K | −10.1% of holding | −15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,424 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $58.37 | $228K | −13.0% of holding | −15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 1,388 @ $59.35 | $82K | −3.4% of holding | −15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,036 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $59.35 | $65K | −4.2% of holding | −15.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Derynck Mika K | director | Sale | 158,795 @ $60.21 | $9.6M | −100.0% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 2,638 @ $53.38 | $141K | −5.4% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,177 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 2,564 @ $52.32 | $134K | −5.0% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,815 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 2,184 @ $53.42 | $117K | −8.0% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,063 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 2,063 @ $52.39 | $108K | −7.0% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,247 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 459 @ $51.55 | $24K | −1.5% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,310 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 369 @ $51.48 | $19K | −0.7% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,379 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 324 @ $49.97 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,748 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 231 @ $50.05 | $12K | −0.8% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,769 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 123 @ $53.87 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,054 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 63 @ $53.92 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | +8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Sale | 5,889 @ $50.84 | $299K | −12.3% of holding | +19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Sale | 4,111 @ $49.98 | $205K | −7.9% of holding | +19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 787,024 @ $45.38 | $35.7M | −10.7% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,601,878 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 46,776 @ $45.00 | $2.1M | −0.7% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,555,102 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 24,846 @ $45.38 | $1.1M | −10.1% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 220,882 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 1,477 @ $45.00 | $66K | −0.7% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 219,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 3,401 @ $43.86 | $149K | −6.1% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,238 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 2,599 @ $43.87 | $114K | −9.0% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,133 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 1,379 @ $42.78 | $59K | −2.4% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,639 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 1,238 @ $44.75 | $55K | −2.4% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 1,268 @ $42.83 | $54K | −4.2% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,732 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 1,133 @ $44.74 | $51K | −4.3% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 272,322 @ $45.02 | $12.3M | −3.6% of holding | +20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,388,902 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 9,086 @ $45.02 | $409K | −3.6% of holding | +20.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 245,728 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Sale | 7,779 @ $34.28 | $267K | −12.6% of holding | +45.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,105 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Sale | 1,867 @ $35.36 | $66K | −3.5% of holding | +45.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,238 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Kunkel Lori Anne | director | Sale | 354 @ $35.82 | $13K | −0.7% of holding | +45.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,884 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 3,475 @ $39.53 | $137K | −11.6% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,525 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 1,302 @ $40.25 | $52K | −4.9% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 223 @ $41.21 | $9K | −0.9% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 2,441 @ $48.06 | $117K | −8.9% of holding | −21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 2,419 @ $47.39 | $115K | −8.1% of holding | −21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,441 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 140 @ $45.81 | $6K | −0.5% of holding | −21.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,860 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $35.10 | $1.4M | −61.5% of holding | +15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $27.76 | $139K | −16.7% of holding | +58.3% | +63.7% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 10,129 @ $30.19 | $306K | −28.8% of holding | +50.1% | +76.8% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 29,871 @ $30.02 | $897K | −54.4% of holding | +44.5% | +86.2% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $29.58 | $296K | −16.4% of holding | +48.3% | +86.3% | 51,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Sale | 45,000 @ $26.17 | $1.2M | −64.3% of holding | +7.4% | +116.9% | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 1,230 @ $26.18 | $32K | −5.2% of holding | +7.4% | +116.9% | 22,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Lyssikatos Joseph P | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $29.04 | $145K | −0.7% of holding | +4.7% | +89.4% | 740,188 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Lyssikatos Joseph P | officer | Sale | 14,509 @ $26.90 | $390K | −1.9% of holding | −4.3% | +84.5% | 745,188 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Lyssikatos Joseph P | officer | Sale | 5,491 @ $26.37 | $145K | −0.7% of holding | −4.3% | +84.5% | 759,697 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 718 @ $26.96 | $19K | −2.9% of holding | −4.3% | +84.5% | 23,877 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 512 @ $26.46 | $14K | −2.0% of holding | −4.3% | +84.5% | 24,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Lyssikatos Joseph P | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $29.13 | $1.5M | −6.1% of holding | +7.7% | +90.1% | 765,188 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Patel Anish | officer | Sale | 48,057 @ $27.98 | $1.3M | −18.3% of holding | +7.7% | +90.1% | 215,254 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Lyssikatos Joseph P | officer | Sale | 41,198 @ $24.90 | $1.0M | −4.8% of holding | +7.7% | +90.1% | 815,188 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 4,285 @ $25.00 | $107K | −14.6% of holding | +7.7% | +90.1% | 25,107 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Patel Anish | officer | Sale | 243 @ $28.50 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | +7.7% | +90.1% | 215,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Lyssikatos Joseph P | officer | Sale | 33,802 @ $24.92 | $842K | −3.8% of holding | +20.1% | +109.6% | 856,386 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 8,015 @ $25.04 | $201K | −21.4% of holding | +20.1% | +109.6% | 29,392 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Lyssikatos Joseph P | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $20.13 | $151K | −0.8% of holding | +20.1% | +109.6% | 890,188 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Sale | 1,620 @ $25.00 | $41K | −6.0% of holding | +20.1% | +109.6% | 25,545 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Lyssikatos Joseph P | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $16.84 | $84K | −0.6% of holding | +59.0% | +174.9% | 897,688 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
108 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 111,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Derynck Mika K | director | Option exercise | 27,567 | 114,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Derynck Mika K | director | Option exercise | 20,491 | 158,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Derynck Mika K | director | Option exercise | 23,364 | 138,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Derynck Mika K | director | Option exercise | 87,373 | 87,373 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Derynck Mika K | director | Option exercise | 23,364 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Derynck Mika K | director | Option exercise | 87,373 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Derynck Mika K | director | Option exercise | 27,567 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Derynck Mika K | director | Option exercise | 20,491 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 1,072 | 52,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 1,072 | 84,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 116,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 6,018 | 57,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hohl Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 6,018 | 86,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 121,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 126,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 131,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 65,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 136,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 176,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 10,129 | 35,129 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 10,129 | 181,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 29,871 | 54,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 29,871 | 191,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 45,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-17 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Option exercise | 45,000 | 221,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gupta Rishi | director | Award / grant | 33,989 | 33,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Derynck Mika K | director | Award / grant | 17,126 | 17,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Ballal Rahul D. | director | Award / grant | 17,126 | 17,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Bauer Jake | director | Award / grant | 17,126 | 17,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Heyman Richard A. | director | Award / grant | 19,234 | 19,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Collins Helen Louise | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | Patel Anish | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.