Issued 2026-09-16 at $109.17 · now $109.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, EBAY has typically landed between $95.53 and $125.09 — a range of −12.5% to +14.6% from the issuance price $109.17.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($109.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where EBAY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $109.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $109.17 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $110.2 (+0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $104.08–$116.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $95.53–$125.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −35.6% | −35.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −33.4% | −33.4% | +1.0% |
| 2008-09-18 | −33.3% | −34.9% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +45.2% | +0.0% | +45.2% |
| 2009-07-08 | +40.4% | +0.0% | +40.4% |
| 2009-07-09 | +40.1% | +0.0% | +40.1% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$48.6B
market cap
$4.40
EPS (TTM)
24.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$11.1B
'20'25
Net income$2.0B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr18.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr44.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.60
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$21.51
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$104.81
- Analyst target · range $96.00–$125.00$110.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$109.17
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+2.3%
n=18
Feb
58%
+2.7%
n=19
Mar
53%
+2.3%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.6%
n=19
May
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
74%
+6.6%
n=19
Aug
53%
+1.1%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
28%
−3.7%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.6%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 3,778 @ $105.02 | $397K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 220,691 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 3,258 @ $103.82 | $338K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 224,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 2,214 @ $102.85 | $228K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 227,727 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,050 @ $102.06 | $107K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 229,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 810 @ $105.55 | $85K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 219,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 3,844 @ $100.48 | $386K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 238,257 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 2,911 @ $104.59 | $304K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 231,264 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,596 @ $103.14 | $165K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 234,175 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,331 @ $101.30 | $135K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 236,926 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,155 @ $102.39 | $118K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 235,771 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 273 @ $104.95 | $29K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 230,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 1,014 @ $101.39 | $103K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | SPENCER REBECCA | officer | Sale | 4,544 @ $107.84 | $490K | −30.4% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,381 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | SPENCER REBECCA | officer | Sale | 646 @ $107.44 | $69K | −6.2% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 3,424 @ $109.20 | $374K | −1.4% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 246,519 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 2,416 @ $110.36 | $267K | −1.0% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 244,103 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,943 @ $108.27 | $210K | −0.8% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 249,943 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,449 @ $111.27 | $161K | −0.6% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,654 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,325 @ $107.20 | $142K | −0.5% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 251,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 278 @ $112.23 | $31K | −0.1% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,376 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 275 @ $113.23 | $31K | −0.1% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 242,101 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 3,795 @ $107.96 | $410K | −1.4% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 258,124 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 2,402 @ $106.97 | $257K | −0.9% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 261,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 2,282 @ $109.11 | $249K | −0.9% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 255,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,434 @ $109.95 | $158K | −0.6% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 254,408 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,197 @ $110.88 | $133K | −0.5% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 253,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 9,927 @ $114.47 | $1.1M | −3.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 265,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,183 @ $115.07 | $136K | −0.4% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 264,321 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 9,206 @ $113.23 | $1.0M | −3.2% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 277,335 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 1,904 @ $113.82 | $217K | −0.7% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 275,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 863 @ $109.17 | $94K | −2.4% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,533 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Rawashdeh Mazen | officer | Sale | 1,919 @ $108.51 | $208K | −5.6% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,124 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | Boone Cornelius | officer | Sale | 31,100 @ $109.69 | $3.4M | −32.8% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,681 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 6,734 @ $109.34 | $736K | −2.4% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 273,470 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 3,570 @ $110.17 | $393K | −1.3% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,900 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 806 @ $111.10 | $90K | −0.3% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 269,094 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 7,282 @ $109.33 | $796K | −2.5% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 284,032 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 3,828 @ $110.09 | $421K | −1.3% of holding | +6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 280,204 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Rawashdeh Mazen | officer | Sale | 18,663 @ $117.90 | $2.2M | −38.9% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,317 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Rawashdeh Mazen | officer | Sale | 17,179 @ $116.96 | $2.0M | −26.4% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,980 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Rawashdeh Mazen | officer | Sale | 14,058 @ $115.99 | $1.6M | −17.7% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,159 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Rawashdeh Mazen | officer | Sale | 100 @ $118.61 | $12K | −0.3% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,217 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 1,010 @ $115.61 | $117K | −3.0% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 10,605 @ $109.17 | $1.2M | −3.4% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 300,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 8,248 @ $109.89 | $906K | −2.7% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 292,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 788 @ $110.90 | $87K | −0.3% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 291,314 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 9,453 @ $101.63 | $961K | −14.6% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,125 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 7,047 @ $102.30 | $721K | −12.8% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,078 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 6,700 @ $105.41 | $706K | −17.7% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,137 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 5,914 @ $101.62 | $601K | −1.8% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 326,041 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 5,541 @ $104.43 | $579K | −12.8% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 37,837 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 4,700 @ $103.46 | $486K | −9.8% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 43,378 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 4,668 @ $102.32 | $478K | −1.4% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 321,373 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 4,511 @ $105.40 | $475K | −1.4% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,042 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 3,040 @ $103.53 | $315K | −0.9% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,333 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 2,780 @ $104.50 | $291K | −0.9% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 315,553 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 87 @ $106.08 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 310,955 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 10,713 @ $100.29 | $1.1M | −24.9% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,235 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $100.91 | $141K | −4.3% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | IANNONE JAMIE | director | Sale | 11,432 @ $97.25 | $1.1M | −3.3% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 331,722 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
227 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,294 | 32,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | WELLINGTON SAMANTHA | officer | Withheld for tax | 970 | 16,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Option exercise | 4,321 | 38,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Sweetnam Jordan Douglas Bradley | officer | Option exercise | 4,321 | 47,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | WELLINGTON SAMANTHA | officer | Option exercise | 1,836 | 16,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | WELLINGTON SAMANTHA | officer | Option exercise | 1,836 | 17,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Chennapragada Aparna | director | Award / grant | 198 | 18,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Rowe Zane | director | Award / grant | 237 | 13,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Award / grant | 270 | 89,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Brown Adriane M | director | Award / grant | 2,318 | 2,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SHARPLES BRIAN | director | Award / grant | 2,318 | 2,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SHROFF MOHAK | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rowe Zane | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SHARPLES BRIAN | director | Option exercise | 892 | 892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ramanan Shripriya Mahesh | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 13,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SHARPLES BRIAN | director | Option exercise | 892 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ramanan Shripriya Mahesh | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SHROFF MOHAK | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 27,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Brown Adriane M | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | PRESSLER PAUL S | director | Option exercise | 4,697 | 99,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | PRESSLER PAUL S | director | Option exercise | 4,697 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rowe Zane | director | Award / grant | 2,318 | 2,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | PRESSLER PAUL S | director | Award / grant | 3,245 | 3,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | HAYLES CAROL | director | Award / grant | 2,318 | 2,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | HAYLES CAROL | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Nash William D | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Nash William D | director | Award / grant | 2,318 | 2,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 88,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Rowe Zane | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 13,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Nash William D | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 6,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Green Logan | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Green Logan | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 53,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Chennapragada Aparna | director | Award / grant | 2,318 | 2,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | HAYLES CAROL | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 18,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Chennapragada Aparna | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 18,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Chennapragada Aparna | director | Option exercise | 3,355 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ramanan Shripriya Mahesh | director | Award / grant | 2,318 | 2,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | TRAQUINA PERRY M | director | Award / grant | 2,318 | 2,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SHROFF MOHAK | director | Award / grant | 2,318 | 2,318 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-03 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-10-03 | 2025-09-05 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-08-13 | 2025-06-17 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2025-02-08 | 2025-01-14 | $1–15K |
| John James | House | sale | 2024-09-06 | 2024-09-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-09-06 | 2024-08-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-06-12 | 2023-05-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2022-12-06 | 2022-11-03 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.