Issued 2026-09-16 at $148.17 · now $148.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, DUOL has typically landed between $110.68 and $191.95 — a range of −25.3% to +29.5% from the issuance price $148.17.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,269 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($148.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DUOL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $148.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $148.17 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $149.8 (+1.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $132.26–$167.35
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $110.68–$191.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,269 windows spanning 2021-07-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-22 | −45.4% | −45.4% | +1.9% |
| 2025-10-15 | −45.3% | −45.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-21 | −45.1% | −45.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-08 | +71.7% | +0.0% | +71.7% |
| 2025-04-04 | +67.5% | +0.0% | +68.7% |
| 2025-04-07 | +67.1% | −1.1% | +67.1% |
1,269 overlapping windows · 2021-07-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−0.8%
n=5
Feb
20%
−4.8%
n=5
Mar
40%
+11.3%
n=5
Apr
60%
+5.2%
n=5
May
60%
+5.2%
n=5
Jun
60%
−1.7%
n=5
Jul
60%
−0.5%
n=5
Aug
50%
+1.6%
n=6
Sep
83%
+13.8%
n=6
Oct
40%
−6.7%
n=5
Nov
40%
−3.3%
n=5
Dec
40%
−2.0%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 5,965 @ $150.00 | $895K | −12.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 43,769 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 2,107 @ $147.43 | $311K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 49,734 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | GORDON WILLIAM B | director | Sale | 3,483 @ $145.91 | $508K | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 71,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | GORDON WILLIAM B | director | Sale | 2,742 @ $144.59 | $396K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | GORDON WILLIAM B | director | Sale | 2,675 @ $146.58 | $392K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 68,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | GORDON WILLIAM B | director | Sale | 800 @ $143.83 | $115K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | GORDON WILLIAM B | director | Sale | 200 @ $148.68 | $30K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 68,515 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | GORDON WILLIAM B | director | Sale | 100 @ $151.64 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 68,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 1,037 @ $138.19 | $143K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 169,111 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 502 @ $137.01 | $69K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 170,148 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 2,751 @ $129.13 | $355K | −1.6% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 170,650 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Meese Robert | officer | Sale | 1,354 @ $129.13 | $175K | −0.8% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 1,024 @ $129.13 | $132K | −1.9% of holding | +16.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,841 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 2,060 @ $113.21 | $233K | −1.2% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $114.19 | $148K | −0.7% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 1,277 @ $113.27 | $145K | −2.3% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,507 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 700 @ $114.22 | $80K | −1.3% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,807 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 1,929 @ $112.16 | $216K | −1.1% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,761 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Meese Robert | officer | Sale | 1,420 @ $112.16 | $159K | −0.8% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 170,745 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 820 @ $112.16 | $92K | −1.5% of holding | +12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,784 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Shelton James H | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $99.76 | $499K | +107.9% of holding | −1.9% | +43.7% | 9,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 1,764 @ $114.35 | $202K | −5.2% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 31,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 1,626 @ $112.26 | $183K | −4.6% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 33,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 1,520 @ $114.29 | $174K | −1.3% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 115,740 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 1,499 @ $112.30 | $168K | −1.3% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 117,426 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 821 @ $111.83 | $92K | −2.5% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 31,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 520 @ $114.55 | $60K | −1.7% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 30,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 480 @ $113.95 | $55K | −1.5% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 31,145 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 360 @ $115.29 | $42K | −0.3% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 115,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 360 @ $115.29 | $42K | −1.1% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 31,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 236 @ $113.37 | $27K | −0.7% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 33,755 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 166 @ $113.55 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 117,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 80 @ $115.47 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | −7.6% | +17.2% | 30,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 1,870 @ $110.06 | $206K | −5.0% of holding | −7.6% | +11.6% | 35,617 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 1,741 @ $110.06 | $192K | −1.4% of holding | −7.6% | +11.6% | 118,925 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Meese Robert | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $110.06 | $110K | −0.8% of holding | −7.6% | +11.6% | 122,636 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 896 @ $110.06 | $99K | −2.7% of holding | −7.6% | +11.6% | 32,446 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hacker Severin | director | Sale | 3,089 @ $174.61 | $539K | −79.7% of holding | +3.6% | −52.1% | 787 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hacker Severin | director | Sale | 2,009 @ $171.50 | $345K | −25.3% of holding | +3.6% | −52.1% | 5,917 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hacker Severin | director | Sale | 1,281 @ $172.39 | $221K | −21.6% of holding | +3.6% | −52.1% | 4,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hacker Severin | director | Sale | 1,146 @ $169.57 | $194K | −11.4% of holding | +3.6% | −52.1% | 8,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hacker Severin | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $170.55 | $171K | −11.2% of holding | +3.6% | −52.1% | 7,926 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hacker Severin | director | Sale | 760 @ $173.74 | $132K | −16.4% of holding | +3.6% | −52.1% | 3,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hacker Severin | director | Sale | 435 @ $175.46 | $76K | −55.3% of holding | +3.6% | −52.1% | 352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Hacker Severin | director | Sale | 280 @ $176.68 | $49K | −79.5% of holding | +3.6% | −52.1% | 72 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 880 @ $175.73 | $155K | −2.2% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 38,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 850 @ $175.73 | $149K | −0.8% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 111,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 796 @ $176.91 | $141K | −2.1% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 37,687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 793 @ $175.00 | $139K | −2.0% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 39,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 741 @ $174.97 | $130K | −0.7% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 112,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 594 @ $175.15 | $104K | −1.8% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 32,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 560 @ $177.00 | $99K | −0.5% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 111,326 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 480 @ $177.19 | $85K | −1.5% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 31,542 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 390 @ $174.04 | $68K | −1.0% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 40,156 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 320 @ $175.94 | $56K | −1.0% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 32,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 200 @ $177.65 | $36K | −0.5% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 37,487 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 160 @ $177.60 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 111,166 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Glance Natalie | officer | Sale | 160 @ $173.80 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 113,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Sale | 120 @ $173.97 | $21K | −0.4% of holding | +1.8% | −52.9% | 32,936 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Skaruppa Matthew | officer | Sale | 2,799 @ $177.95 | $498K | −6.5% of holding | +2.3% | −52.1% | 40,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | KRAWCHECK SALLIE | director | Award / grant | 1,312 | 1,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | KRAWCHECK SALLIE | director | Award / grant | 3,280 | 4,592 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Schlosser Mario | director | Award / grant | 140 | 4,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Bohutinsky Amy | director | Award / grant | 130 | 7,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Shelton James H | director | Award / grant | 120 | 11,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Lilly III John Osborne | director | Award / grant | 118 | 9,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Option exercise | 58 | 52,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Option exercise | 58 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Shelton James H | director | Award / grant | 2,001 | 11,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | GORDON WILLIAM B | director | Award / grant | 2,001 | 78,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ross Bonnie | director | Award / grant | 2,001 | 3,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Clemens Sara | director | Award / grant | 2,001 | 5,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Lilly III John Osborne | director | Award / grant | 2,001 | 8,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Bohutinsky Amy | director | Award / grant | 2,001 | 7,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Schlosser Mario | director | Award / grant | 2,001 | 4,122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | von Ahn Luis | director | Withheld for tax | 54,875 | 3,368,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hacker Severin | director | Withheld for tax | 31,920 | 205,273 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hacker Severin | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 237,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | von Ahn Luis | director | Option exercise | 120,000 | 420,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hacker Severin | director | Option exercise | 60,000 | 210,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | von Ahn Luis | director | Option exercise | 120,000 | 3,422,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Glance Natalie | officer | Award / grant | 39,058 | 178,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Award / grant | 24,411 | 55,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Meese Robert | officer | Award / grant | 19,529 | 172,165 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Option exercise | 648 | 31,193 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chen Stephen C. | officer | Option exercise | 648 | 58 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | von Ahn Luis | director | Gift | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | von Ahn Luis | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 3,302,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-11 | von Ahn Luis | director | Conversion | 50,000 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Munson Gillian | director | Award / grant | 133,753 | 137,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meese Robert | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 152,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meese Robert | officer | Option exercise | 5,625 | 132,636 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meese Robert | officer | Option exercise | 4,375 | 127,011 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meese Robert | officer | Option exercise | 5,625 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meese Robert | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meese Robert | officer | Option exercise | 4,375 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Glance Natalie | officer | Option exercise | 12,418 | 139,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Glance Natalie | officer | Option exercise | 11,834 | 127,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Glance Natalie | officer | Option exercise | 11,834 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Glance Natalie | officer | Option exercise | 12,418 | 5,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.