Issued 2026-09-25 at $20.39 · now $20.39 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, DNLI has typically landed between $15.90 and $25.89 — a range of −22.0% to +27.0% from the issuance price $20.39.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,189 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-12-08 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($20.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where DNLI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $20.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.39 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.23 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.2–$22.25
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.9–$25.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,189 windows spanning 2017-12-08 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −44.4% | −44.4% | +2.7% |
| 2020-02-11 | −39.0% | −39.0% | +6.6% |
| 2020-02-18 | −37.3% | −45.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-06-16 | +69.6% | +0.0% | +69.6% |
| 2022-06-14 | +61.9% | −0.2% | +61.9% |
| 2020-10-14 | +60.7% | −8.8% | +60.7% |
2,189 overlapping windows · 2017-12-08 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of DNL593 in Healthy Participants and Participants With Frontotemporal Dementia (FTD-GRN) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Safety and Pharmacodynamic Effects of BIIB122 in Participants With LRRK2-Associated Parkinson's Disease (LRRK2-PD) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: An Extension Study of the Long-Term Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Tividenofusp Alfa (DNL310) in Participants With Mucopolysaccharidosis Type II (MPS II) From Study DNLI-E-0002 or Study DNLI-E-0007 (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: A Study to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Tividenofusp Alfa (DNL310) vs Idursulfase in Pediatric and Young Adult Participants With Neuronopathic (nMPS II) or Non-Neuronopathic Mucopolysaccharidosis Type II (nnMPS II) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Study of DNL126 in Pediatric Participants With Mucopolysaccharidosis Type IIIA (Sanfilippo Syndrome Type A) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- February 2031 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: A Study of Tividenofusp Alfa (DNL310) in Pediatric Participants With Hunter Syndrome (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+6.9%
n=9
Feb
33%
−2.3%
n=9
Mar
22%
−8.8%
n=9
Apr
56%
+0.8%
n=9
May
78%
+5.6%
n=9
Jun
67%
+7.8%
n=9
Jul
33%
−5.3%
n=9
Aug
67%
+6.4%
n=9
Sep
44%
+0.4%
n=9
Oct
38%
−3.7%
n=8
Nov
63%
+13.7%
n=8
Dec
38%
+1.1%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chin Peter Scott | officer | Sale | 1,654 @ $22.29 | $37K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 204,538 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Thornberry Nancy | director | Sale | 10,824 @ $22.85 | $247K | −34.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Thornberry Nancy | director | Sale | 615 @ $23.74 | $15K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,686 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 2,768 @ $23.44 | $65K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 278,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 2,857 @ $25.07 | $72K | −1.0% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 281,763 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Sale | 35,198 @ $16.50 | $581K | −10.6% of holding | +18.4% | +48.9% | 296,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 17,218 @ $16.50 | $284K | −5.7% of holding | +18.4% | +48.9% | 282,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 2,095,191 @ $17.49 | $36.6M | +8.8% of holding | +3.3% | +17.8% | 25,996,310 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Purchase | 190,523 @ $17.49 | $3.3M | +8.9% of holding | +3.3% | +17.8% | 2,335,469 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Ho Carole | director | Sale | 806 @ $14.64 | $12K | −0.4% of holding | −6.1% | +23.3% | 216,585 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 2,937 @ $13.58 | $40K | −1.2% of holding | +9.8% | +40.7% | 242,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | Ho Carole | director | Sale | 2,937 @ $13.58 | $40K | −1.3% of holding | +9.8% | +40.7% | 217,391 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Sale | 495,282 @ $15.00 | $7.4M | −66.2% of holding | −6.4% | +1.9% | 253,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Sale | 7,650 @ $20.81 | $159K | −2.9% of holding | +3.0% | −38.0% | 253,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Sale | 3,339 @ $20.81 | $69K | −11.5% of holding | +3.0% | −38.0% | 25,757 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Ho Carole | director | Sale | 2,907 @ $20.81 | $60K | −1.6% of holding | +3.0% | −38.0% | 175,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 2,907 @ $20.81 | $60K | −1.2% of holding | +3.0% | −38.0% | 244,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Sale | 29,266 @ $20.22 | $592K | −10.1% of holding | +11.8% | −28.3% | 260,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Ho Carole | director | Sale | 12,255 @ $20.22 | $248K | −6.4% of holding | +11.8% | −28.3% | 178,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 12,255 @ $20.22 | $248K | −4.7% of holding | +11.8% | −28.3% | 247,215 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 3,080 @ $20.91 | $64K | −2.8% of holding | +7.4% | −38.0% | 107,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-31 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $20.25 | $608K | −50.8% of holding | +5.2% | −36.6% | 29,096 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-11 | Schenkein David P | director | Sale | 32,312 @ $32.87 | $1.1M | −77.8% of holding | −25.9% | −54.4% | 9,220 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-11 | Schenkein David P | director | Sale | 27,129 @ $32.09 | $871K | −39.5% of holding | −25.9% | −54.4% | 41,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-07 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 12,333 @ $29.68 | $366K | −6.4% of holding | −17.2% | −51.0% | 181,291 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-07 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 2,925 @ $30.72 | $90K | −1.6% of holding | −17.2% | −51.0% | 178,366 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-07 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 1,020 @ $30.00 | $31K | −0.9% of holding | −17.2% | −51.0% | 111,056 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-07 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 300 @ $31.29 | $9K | −0.2% of holding | −17.2% | −51.0% | 178,066 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-01 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 3,080 @ $27.07 | $83K | −2.7% of holding | −17.4% | −46.0% | 112,076 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-10-18 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $27.69 | $1.1M | −14.5% of holding | −13.0% | −38.3% | 235,807 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-30 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $29.03 | $871K | −50.8% of holding | −7.1% | −51.9% | 29,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-13 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 1,020 @ $30.00 | $31K | −0.9% of holding | −17.1% | −53.3% | 115,156 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-09-03 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 2,980 @ $24.99 | $74K | −2.5% of holding | +12.2% | −39.6% | 116,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-09-03 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 100 @ $25.37 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | +12.2% | −39.6% | 116,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-21 | Ho Carole | director | Sale | 14,098 @ $24.41 | $344K | −10.2% of holding | +22.0% | −24.5% | 124,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-21 | Ho Carole | director | Sale | 5,907 @ $24.96 | $147K | −4.7% of holding | +22.0% | −24.5% | 118,810 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-21 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 2,547 @ $24.78 | $63K | −1.4% of holding | +22.0% | −24.5% | 178,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-20 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 3,353 @ $23.54 | $79K | −1.8% of holding | +29.1% | −20.4% | 180,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-20 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 2,453 @ $23.79 | $58K | −1.3% of holding | +29.1% | −20.4% | 183,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-20 | Ho Carole | director | Sale | 2,453 @ $23.79 | $58K | −1.7% of holding | +29.1% | −20.4% | 138,815 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-20 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Sale | 2,260 @ $23.79 | $54K | −0.9% of holding | +29.1% | −20.4% | 235,807 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-20 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Sale | 1,727 @ $23.79 | $41K | −5.0% of holding | +29.1% | −20.4% | 32,677 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-13 | Ho Carole | director | Sale | 2,337 @ $22.89 | $53K | −1.6% of holding | +18.3% | −20.6% | 141,268 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-13 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Sale | 2,272 @ $22.89 | $52K | −1.2% of holding | +18.3% | −20.6% | 186,419 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-01 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Sale | 29,900 @ $22.12 | $661K | −46.4% of holding | +9.7% | −16.6% | 34,504 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-01 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 2,980 @ $22.12 | $66K | −2.4% of holding | +9.7% | −16.6% | 119,356 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-01 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 100 @ $22.86 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | +9.7% | −16.6% | 119,256 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-07-01 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Sale | 100 @ $22.80 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | +9.7% | −16.6% | 34,404 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-13 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Sale | 688 @ $21.79 | $15K | −1.3% of holding | +3.8% | −6.0% | 52,620 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-06 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Sale | 1,458 @ $21.73 | $32K | −6.8% of holding | −5.9% | −4.7% | 20,038 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-15 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 1,674 @ $20.39 | $34K | −1.4% of holding | −3.1% | +28.6% | 116,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-04-15 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 1,666 @ $18.29 | $30K | −1.4% of holding | +7.0% | +33.8% | 118,043 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-04-01 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Sale | 92,500 @ $20.50 | $1.9M | −66.1% of holding | −21.0% | +31.1% | 47,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-03-15 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 1,666 @ $20.10 | $33K | −1.4% of holding | −12.6% | +39.9% | 119,709 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-15 | SATO VICKI L | director | Sale | 1,666 @ $18.37 | $31K | −1.4% of holding | +6.9% | +14.3% | 121,375 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
85 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Gift | 32,220 | 2,120,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Klein Peter S | director | Award / grant | 19,226 | 19,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Schenkein David P | director | Award / grant | 6,408 | 21,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Schenkein David P | director | Award / grant | 19,226 | 19,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Award / grant | 6,408 | 38,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Krognes Steve E. | director | Award / grant | 19,226 | 19,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thornberry Nancy | director | Award / grant | 6,408 | 31,125 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thornberry Nancy | director | Award / grant | 19,226 | 19,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Van Hauwermeiren Timothy | director | Award / grant | 6,408 | 17,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Van Hauwermeiren Timothy | director | Award / grant | 19,226 | 19,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 19,226 | 19,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Award / grant | 6,408 | 32,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 6,408 | 343,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Award / grant | 19,226 | 19,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Award / grant | 6,408 | 22,628 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | FLATLEY JAY T | director | Award / grant | 19,226 | 19,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Klein Peter S | director | Award / grant | 6,408 | 33,941 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 6,408 | 3,422,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Award / grant | 78,960 | 332,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Award / grant | 236,880 | 236,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Award / grant | 57,700 | 300,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Schuth Alexander O. | officer | Award / grant | 173,100 | 173,100 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Van Hauwermeiren Timothy | director | Award / grant | 10,632 | 10,632 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Van Hauwermeiren Timothy | director | Award / grant | 31,897 | 31,897 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-03 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Gift | 50,000 | 2,152,604 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-05 | Ho Carole | director | Option exercise | 44,655 | 220,328 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-05 | Ho Carole | director | Option exercise | 44,655 | 62,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Option exercise | 455,282 | 708,353 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 748,353 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Option exercise | 40,000 | 20,369 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Watts Ryan J. | director | Option exercise | 455,282 | 622,809 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Klein Peter S | director | Award / grant | 6,037 | 27,533 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Klein Peter S | director | Award / grant | 18,111 | 18,111 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Award / grant | 6,037 | 26,075 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Cook Jennifer E. | director | Award / grant | 18,111 | 18,111 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Thornberry Nancy | director | Award / grant | 6,037 | 24,717 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Tessier-Lavigne Marc | director | Award / grant | 6,037 | 1,886,576 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | Tessier-Lavigne Marc | director | Award / grant | 18,111 | 18,111 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 10,565 | 336,867 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-03 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 10,565 | 3,415,958 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.