Issued 2026-09-16 at $211.54 · now $211.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CVX has typically landed between $190.50 and $236.79 — a range of −9.9% to +11.9% from the issuance price $211.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($211.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CVX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $211.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $211.54 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $215.73 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $206.77–$224.69
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $190.5–$236.79
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −50.3% | −50.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −50.1% | −50.1% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-19 | −48.2% | −50.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +58.4% | −1.5% | +58.4% |
| 2020-03-23 | +55.7% | +0.0% | +60.8% |
| 2020-03-19 | +45.6% | −5.5% | +51.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$171.90
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$116.97
- Analyst target · range $174.00–$230.00$210.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$211.54
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 2,470 @ $205.11 | $507K | −18.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,794 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Sale | 16,800 @ $201.06 | $3.4M | −99.9% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 14 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wirth Michael K | director | Sale | 306,789 @ $200.44 | $61.5M | −89.3% of holding | +12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,619 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Wirth Michael K | director | Sale | 10,311 @ $201.05 | $2.1M | −28.2% of holding | +12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,308 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | GUSTAVSON JEFF B | officer | Sale | 14,044 @ $194.95 | $2.7M | −78.8% of holding | +9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,786 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Wirth Michael K | director | Sale | 5,547 @ $187.00 | $1.0M | −17.4% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,308 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 271,946 @ $194.48 | $52.9M | −40.9% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 393,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 174,821 @ $194.42 | $34.0M | −16.3% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 899,555 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 118,657 @ $193.29 | $22.9M | −15.1% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 665,688 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 90,031 @ $192.75 | $17.4M | −10.3% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 784,345 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 55,510 @ $194.07 | $10.8M | −20.0% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 222,535 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 44,490 @ $194.50 | $8.7M | −20.0% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 30,031 @ $195.14 | $5.9M | −7.6% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 363,711 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 25,179 @ $195.28 | $4.9M | −2.8% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 874,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 119,787 @ $192.86 | $23.1M | −22.2% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 420,422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 117,836 @ $191.52 | $22.6M | −17.9% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 540,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 59,045 @ $193.79 | $11.4M | −14.0% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 361,377 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 42,678 @ $194.65 | $8.3M | −11.8% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 318,699 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 30,581 @ $196.74 | $6.0M | −9.8% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 281,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 7,038 @ $195.97 | $1.4M | −2.2% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 311,661 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 3,035 @ $197.45 | $599K | −1.1% of holding | −9.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 278,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 88,921 @ $184.67 | $16.4M | −10.8% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 736,093 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 78,048 @ $185.21 | $14.5M | −10.6% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 658,045 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | HESS JOHN B | director | Sale | 28,031 @ $183.90 | $5.2M | −3.3% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 825,014 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 40,200 @ $213.30 | $8.6M | −82.3% of holding | −21.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 47,200 @ $192.12 | $9.1M | −84.7% of holding | +7.8% | −4.3% | 8,558 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wirth Michael K | director | Sale | 90,524 @ $190.04 | $17.2M | −74.3% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 31,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wirth Michael K | director | Sale | 86,329 @ $188.82 | $16.3M | −46.5% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 99,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | NELSON MARK A | officer | Sale | 77,000 @ $187.76 | $14.5M | −87.2% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 11,337 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wirth Michael K | director | Sale | 64,399 @ $189.61 | $12.2M | −64.8% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 34,966 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | NELSON MARK A | officer | Sale | 62,600 @ $188.11 | $11.8M | −84.7% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 11,337 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 29,260 @ $188.13 | $5.5M | −44.0% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 37,298 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wirth Michael K | director | Sale | 27,672 @ $188.01 | $5.2M | −13.0% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 185,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 23,757 @ $189.05 | $4.5M | −63.7% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 13,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | BONNER EIMEAR P | officer | Sale | 17,400 @ $190.60 | $3.3M | −67.4% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 8,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Sale | 6,600 @ $188.56 | $1.2M | −56.9% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 4,983 @ $189.84 | $946K | −36.8% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 8,558 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $188.61 | $943K | −100.0% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wirth Michael K | director | Sale | 3,700 @ $190.60 | $705K | −10.6% of holding | +14.1% | −2.6% | 31,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 21,237 @ $186.62 | $4.0M | −66.0% of holding | +20.5% | −3.7% | 10,938 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BONNER EIMEAR P | officer | Sale | 18,100 @ $186.56 | $3.4M | −62.8% of holding | +20.5% | −3.7% | 10,728 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 6,958 @ $184.29 | $1.3M | −15.8% of holding | +20.5% | −3.7% | 37,075 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | GUSTAVSON JEFF B | officer | Sale | 6,667 @ $186.04 | $1.2M | −64.2% of holding | +20.5% | −3.7% | 3,716 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BONNER EIMEAR P | officer | Sale | 5,500 @ $184.28 | $1.0M | −14.9% of holding | +20.5% | −3.7% | 31,328 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 4,900 @ $185.61 | $909K | −13.2% of holding | +20.5% | −3.7% | 32,175 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BONNER EIMEAR P | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $185.33 | $463K | −8.0% of holding | +20.5% | −3.7% | 28,828 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Pate R. Hewitt | officer | Sale | 2,380 @ $187.22 | $446K | −21.8% of holding | +20.5% | −3.7% | 8,558 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | BONNER EIMEAR P | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $187.16 | $430K | −21.4% of holding | +20.5% | −3.7% | 8,428 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Knowles Alana K | officer | Sale | 2,408 @ $183.28 | $441K | −100.0% of holding | +13.4% | +0.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Sale | 1,463 @ $183.83 | $269K | −100.0% of holding | +13.4% | +0.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Booth Thomas Ryder | officer | Sale | 1,122 @ $182.37 | $205K | −100.0% of holding | +10.4% | −2.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Booth Thomas Ryder | officer | Sale | 10,600 @ $184.39 | $2.0M | −86.9% of holding | +10.8% | −3.8% | 1,598 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Sale | 666 @ $183.40 | $122K | −31.3% of holding | +10.8% | −3.8% | 1,463 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Booth Thomas Ryder | officer | Sale | 476 @ $184.54 | $88K | −29.8% of holding | +10.8% | −3.8% | 1,122 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Booth Thomas Ryder | officer | Sale | 5 @ $184.77 | $924 | −100.0% of holding | +11.2% | −5.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Sale | 22,200 @ $176.53 | $3.9M | −97.1% of holding | +8.9% | −5.5% | 666 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Booth Thomas Ryder | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $178.43 | $1.1M | −92.6% of holding | +8.9% | −5.5% | 476 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | NELSON MARK A | officer | Sale | 27,700 @ $174.09 | $4.8M | −79.5% of holding | +9.4% | −0.0% | 7,161 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | NELSON MARK A | officer | Sale | 18,100 @ $174.28 | $3.2M | −71.7% of holding | +9.4% | −0.0% | 7,161 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
241 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | HEWSON MARILLYN A | director | Discretionary | 213 | 6,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | WARNER CYNTHIA J | director | Discretionary | 19 | 426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 12,700 | 16,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 4,100 | 4,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 4,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Moyo Dambisa F | director | Gift | 350 | 14,495 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Walz Andrew Benjamin | officer | Option exercise | 12,700 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Wirth Michael K | director | Option exercise | 317,100 | 343,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Wirth Michael K | director | Option exercise | 317,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | GUSTAVSON JEFF B | officer | Option exercise | 4,633 | 3,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | GUSTAVSON JEFF B | officer | Option exercise | 4,850 | 3,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | GUSTAVSON JEFF B | officer | Option exercise | 4,561 | 3,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | GUSTAVSON JEFF B | officer | Option exercise | 4,850 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | GUSTAVSON JEFF B | officer | Option exercise | 4,633 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | GUSTAVSON JEFF B | officer | Option exercise | 4,561 | 8,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 243,706 | 778,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 74,310 | 1,074,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 103,771 | 1,000,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 170,077 | 535,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 117,498 | 896,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 170,077 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Other acquisition | 2,244,497 | 5,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Other acquisition | 9,118 | 16,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Other acquisition | 439,786 | 439,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Other acquisition | 8,102 | 365,014 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 243,706 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 117,498 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 103,771 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | HESS JOHN B | director | Option exercise | 74,310 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | HEWSON MARILLYN A | director | Discretionary | 209 | 6,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | WARNER CYNTHIA J | director | Discretionary | 20 | 403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | HORTON THOMAS W | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 1,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Moyo Dambisa F | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 14,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Umpleby III Donald J | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 3,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | WARNER CYNTHIA J | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 7,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | REED DEBRA L | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 17,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Huntsman Jon M Jr | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 12,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Frank John | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 20,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | HERNANDEZ ENRIQUE JR | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 34,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | HESS JOHN B | director | Award / grant | 1,272 | 356,900 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | sale | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-07-01 | 2026-06-15 | $1–15K |
| Tim Walberg | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2025-02-07 | $15–50K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-11 | $1–15K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-20 | 2026-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $15–50K |
| David J. Taylor | House | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-26 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2026-01-16 | 2025-12-29 | $15–50K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Roger Williams | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-22 | $15–50K |
| Julia Letlow | House | purchase | 2026-01-13 | 2024-10-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-24 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.