CSXCSX CorporationIndustrials · Railroadsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $47.90 · now $47.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CSX has typically landed between $43.41 and $53.36 — a range of −9.4% to +11.4% from the issuance price $47.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($47.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CSX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $47.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$43.41worst · -9.4%$53.36best · +11.4%
  • now $47.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.54 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $46.33–$50.75
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $43.41–$53.36
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−39.9%−39.9%+0.0%
2020-02-13−38.5%−38.5%+0.8%
2020-02-20−37.8%−39.0%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-09+39.0%+0.0%+39.0%
2009-05-13+36.7%+0.0%+36.7%
2009-07-13+35.6%+0.0%+35.9%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$98.6B
market cap
$1.73
EPS (TTM)
30.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-15
next earnings
Revenue$14.1B
'20'25
Net income$2.9B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr20.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr22.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.47
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $47.90$12.76$63.50
  • DCF (intrinsic)$16.26
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$53.03
  • Analyst target · range $32.00–$60.00$52.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$47.90

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
63%
+2.2%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Apr
74%
+4.5%
n=19
May
58%
+1.8%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.0%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.1%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.6%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.3%
n=18
Nov
67%
+4.5%
n=18
Dec
50%
−1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$53$322026-07-24: 2 insider sales, $2.3M — Williams Angela C, Burns Michael S.2026-06-03: 2 insider sales, $6.8M — Boone Kevin S., ZILLMER JOHN J2026-03-06: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — ANGEL STEPHEN F2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $3.7M — Sorfleet Diana B2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Fortune Stephen2026-01-28: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Sorfleet Diana B2025-10-22: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Boone Kevin S.2025-10-20: 1 insider purchase, $2.0M — ANGEL STEPHEN F2025-10-20: 1 insider sale, $891K — Burns Michael S.2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $2.0M2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $2.5M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $5.0M2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $6.8M2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $2.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Williams Angela C — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Burns Michael S. — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Boone Kevin S. — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ZILLMER JOHN J — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ANGEL STEPHEN F — Purchase on 2026-03-06, filed same dayofficer Sorfleet Diana B — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fortune Stephen — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sorfleet Diana B — Sale on 2026-01-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Boone Kevin S. — Sale on 2025-10-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ANGEL STEPHEN F — Purchase on 2025-10-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Burns Michael S. — Sale on 2025-10-20, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Williams Angela CofficerSale30,000 @ $53.29$1.6M−74.2% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open10,437Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-24Burns Michael S.officerSale13,000 @ $52.68$685K−17.9% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open59,643Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-03Boone Kevin S.officerSale136,708 @ $46.70$6.4M−39.6% of holding+5.2%not yet — horizon still open208,622Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-03ZILLMER JOHN JdirectorSale10,000 @ $46.45$465K−2.7% of holding+5.2%not yet — horizon still open353,714Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $40.27$1.0M+20.6% of holding+5.4%+8.9%146,540Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-19Sorfleet Diana BofficerSale90,000 @ $41.56$3.7M−35.2% of holding−3.1%+11.1%165,613Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03Fortune StephenofficerSale31,456 @ $38.65$1.2M−27.7% of holding+6.6%+19.2%82,034Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-28Sorfleet Diana BofficerSale66,667 @ $37.48$2.5M−28.1% of holding+16.0%+27.9%170,777Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-22Boone Kevin S.officerSale31,053 @ $36.09$1.1M−13.6% of holding−3.9%+19.8%197,521Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-20ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorPurchase55,000 @ $36.87$2.0M+1700.7% of holding−5.7%+12.0%58,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-20Burns Michael S.officerSale24,249 @ $36.76$891K−32.0% of holding−5.7%+12.0%51,640Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04Fortune StephenofficerSale1,500 @ $31.41$47K−1.8% of holding−2.8%−8.0%83,939Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

182 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant1852,387Form 4
2026-08-03ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant1812,202Form 4
2026-07-24Burns Michael S.officerOption exercise13,00072,643Form 4
2026-07-24Burns Michael S.officerOption exercise13,00010,457Form 4
2026-07-01ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant1872,021Form 4
2026-06-15WHISLER J STEVENdirectorAward / grant79197,326Form 4
2026-06-03Boone Kevin S.officerOption exercise123,253345,330Form 4
2026-06-03Boone Kevin S.officerOption exercise13,455222,077Form 4
2026-06-03Boone Kevin S.officerOption exercise13,4550Form 4
2026-06-03Boone Kevin S.officerOption exercise123,253123,254Form 4
2026-06-01ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant1971,829Form 4
2026-05-01ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant2001,632Form 4
2026-04-01ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant2181,432Form 4
2026-03-13WHISLER J STEVENdirectorAward / grant95495,929Form 4
2026-03-02ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant2091,211Form 4
2026-03-02ZILLMER JOHN JdirectorGift5,850363,714Form 4
2026-02-26Kenney Maryclare T.officerAward / grant9,37915,922Form 4
2026-02-26ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant63,306121,540Form 4
2026-02-26ANGEL STEPHEN FdirectorAward / grant315,618315,618Form 4
2026-02-26Burns Michael S.officerAward / grant8,20758,981Form 4
2026-02-26Burns Michael S.officerAward / grant40,91440,914Form 4
2026-02-26CHAND M RIZWANofficerAward / grant11,72411,724Form 4
2026-02-26CHAND M RIZWANofficerAward / grant58,44858,448Form 4
2026-02-26Cory Michael A.officerAward / grant15,24195,991Form 4
2026-02-26Cory Michael A.officerAward / grant75,98275,982Form 4
2026-02-26MOFFETT DAVID MdirectorAward / grant4,45570,568Form 4
2026-02-26Halverson Steven TdirectorAward / grant4,455336,160Form 4
2026-02-26Hilal Paul CdirectorAward / grant4,45522,739Form 4
2026-02-26Begeman Ann D.directorAward / grant4,4554,455Form 4
2026-02-26Bostick ThomasdirectorAward / grant4,45526,317Form 4
2026-02-26Boone Kevin S.officerAward / grant15,241208,622Form 4
2026-02-26Boone Kevin S.officerAward / grant75,98275,982Form 4
2026-02-26Vautrinot Suzanne MdirectorAward / grant4,45539,702Form 4
2026-02-26ZILLMER JOHN JdirectorAward / grant4,455363,702Form 4
2026-02-26ZILLMER JOHN JdirectorAward / grant5,862369,564Form 4
2026-02-26Kenney Maryclare T.officerAward / grant46,75946,759Form 4
2026-02-26Chow Anne HdirectorAward / grant4,45510,240Form 4
2026-02-26WAINSCOTT JAMES LdirectorAward / grant4,45541,272Form 4
2026-02-26RIEFLER LINDA HdirectorAward / grant4,45532,450Form 4
2026-02-26WHISLER J STEVENdirectorAward / grant4,45594,975Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2026-07-162026-06-08$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatesale2025-12-052025-11-10$15–50K
Kevin HernHousesale2025-11-162025-10-28$15–50K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2025-06-112025-05-13$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2025-05-152025-04-15$15–50K
Bruce WestermanHousesale2025-05-122025-04-21$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.