CSWCCapital Southwest CorporationFinancial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.60 · now $23.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CSWC has typically landed between $21.41 and $25.91 — a range of −9.3% to +9.8% from the issuance price $23.60.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CSWC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$21.41worst · -9.3%$25.91best · +9.8%
  • now $23.6 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.94 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.91–$24.97
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $21.41–$25.91
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−59.6%−59.6%+0.2%
2020-02-19−55.6%−59.6%+0.1%
2020-02-21−53.2%−59.3%+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-01+61.3%+0.0%+61.3%
2008-12-02+54.7%+0.0%+55.3%
2008-11-20+50.3%−0.6%+61.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+3.0%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.3%
n=20
Mar
60%
+0.6%
n=20
Apr
75%
+2.4%
n=20
May
55%
+2.2%
n=20
Jun
40%
+0.2%
n=20
Jul
75%
+3.3%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.6%
n=20
Oct
45%
−1.1%
n=20
Nov
55%
+2.1%
n=20
Dec
50%
+1.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$26$182026-06-30: 1 insider purchase, $5K — Rogers-Windsor Ramona Lynn2026-06-17: 1 insider purchase, $20K — BATTIST CHRISTINE2026-06-05: 1 insider purchase, $117K — Thomas William R III2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $109K — Thomas William R III2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $5K — Rogers-Windsor Ramona Lynn2026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $59K — Sarner Michael Scott2026-02-09: 1 insider purchase, $14K — BATTIST CHRISTINE2025-10-01: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Rogers-Windsor Ramona Lynn2025-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $15K — BATTIST CHRISTINE2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $15K2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $10K2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $73K2026-06: 4 open-market purchases, $147K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $109K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Rogers-Windsor Ramona Lynn — Purchase on 2026-06-30, filed same daydirector BATTIST CHRISTINE — Purchase on 2026-06-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Thomas William R III — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed same daydirector Thomas William R III — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed same daydirector Rogers-Windsor Ramona Lynn — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed same daydirector Sarner Michael Scott — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector BATTIST CHRISTINE — Purchase on 2026-02-09, filed same daydirector Rogers-Windsor Ramona Lynn — Purchase on 2025-10-01, filed same daydirector BATTIST CHRISTINE — Purchase on 2025-08-20, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30Rogers-Windsor Ramona LynndirectorPurchase211 @ $23.70$5K+0.9% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open23,091Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-17BATTIST CHRISTINEdirectorPurchase860 @ $23.23$20K+6.5% of holding+4.9%not yet — horizon still open14,075Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-05Thomas William R IIIdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $23.40$117K+36.5% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open18,683Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05Thomas William R IIIdirectorSale4,661 @ $23.29$109K−25.4% of holding+1.0%not yet — horizon still open13,683Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01Rogers-Windsor Ramona LynndirectorPurchase213 @ $23.42$5K+0.9% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open22,880Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-27Sarner Michael ScottdirectorPurchase2,695 @ $21.90$59K+0.6% of holding+7.0%+9.4%473,154Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-09BATTIST CHRISTINEdirectorPurchase600 @ $23.16$14K+4.8% of holding−2.0%+2.3%13,215Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-01Rogers-Windsor Ramona LynndirectorPurchase463 @ $21.55$10K+2.2% of holding−8.6%+8.8%21,612Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-20BATTIST CHRISTINEdirectorPurchase667 @ $22.45$15K+5.6% of holding+0.1%−2.8%12,615Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-23Rogers-Windsor Ramona LynndirectorPurchase471 @ $21.19$10K+2.7% of holding+3.9%−8.2%18,092Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-27BATTIST CHRISTINEdirectorPurchase476 @ $20.87$10K+5.1% of holding+4.1%−6.1%9,755Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-26Rogers-Windsor Ramona LynndirectorPurchase450 @ $22.52$10K+2.7% of holding−7.0%−11.3%17,238Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-12Rogers-Windsor Ramona LynndirectorPurchase250 @ $22.67$6K+1.5% of holding+3.1%+2.3%16,407Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

28 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Thomas William R IIIdirectorAward / grant1,98920,672Form 4
2026-08-10BATTIST CHRISTINEdirectorAward / grant1,98916,064Form 4
2026-08-10Brooks David RdirectorAward / grant1,98942,933Form 4
2026-08-10Rogers-Windsor Ramona LynndirectorAward / grant1,98925,080Form 4
2026-08-10FURST JACK DdirectorAward / grant1,98949,937Form 4
2026-06-10Sarner Michael ScottdirectorWithheld for tax11,705587,684Form 4
2026-06-10Weinstein Joshua S.officerWithheld for tax9,588380,585Form 4
2026-06-10Rehberger ChrisofficerWithheld for tax3,688215,971Form 4
2026-06-09Sarner Michael ScottdirectorWithheld for tax13,765459,389Form 4
2026-06-09Weinstein Joshua S.officerWithheld for tax11,349290,173Form 4
2026-06-09Rehberger ChrisofficerWithheld for tax4,492144,659Form 4
2026-06-09Weinstein Joshua S.officerAward / grant100,000390,173Form 4
2026-06-09Sarner Michael ScottdirectorAward / grant140,000599,389Form 4
2026-06-09Rehberger ChrisofficerAward / grant75,000219,659Form 4
2025-08-12Rogers-Windsor Ramona LynndirectorAward / grant2,19320,828Form 4
2025-08-12Brooks David RdirectorAward / grant2,19340,944Form 4
2025-08-12BATTIST CHRISTINEdirectorAward / grant2,19311,948Form 4
2025-08-12FURST JACK DdirectorAward / grant2,19347,948Form 4
2025-08-12Thomas William R IIIdirectorAward / grant2,19318,344Form 4
2025-06-10Sarner Michael ScottdirectorWithheld for tax15,319470,460Form 4
2025-06-10Weinstein Joshua S.officerWithheld for tax12,041301,522Form 4
2025-06-10Rehberger ChrisofficerWithheld for tax3,041149,151Form 4
2025-06-09Sarner Michael ScottdirectorWithheld for tax3,648405,779Form 4
2025-06-09Weinstein Joshua S.officerWithheld for tax3,127248,563Form 4
2025-06-09Rehberger ChrisofficerWithheld for tax1,126107,192Form 4
2025-06-09Sarner Michael ScottdirectorAward / grant80,000485,779Form 4
2025-06-09Weinstein Joshua S.officerAward / grant65,000313,563Form 4
2025-06-09Rehberger ChrisofficerAward / grant45,000152,192Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.