Issued 2026-09-25 at $11.62 · now $11.62 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, CRVS has typically landed between $8.19 and $17.32 — a range of −29.5% to +49.1% from the issuance price $11.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,619 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-03-23 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($11.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CRVS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $11.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.63 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.61–$13.66
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.19–$17.32
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −60.5% | −60.5% | +3.4% |
| 2020-02-18 | −59.7% | −60.2% | +4.1% |
| 2020-02-14 | −56.1% | −59.8% | +5.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-08-19 | +351.3% | +0.0% | +351.3% |
| 2021-08-20 | +292.1% | +0.0% | +346.6% |
| 2021-08-25 | +245.5% | −2.7% | +284.2% |
2,619 overlapping windows · 2016-03-23 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- June 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Study to Evaluate Soquelitinib in Participants With Moderate to Severe AD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Soquelitinib vs Standard of Care in Participants With Relapsed/Refractory Peripheral T-cell Lymphoma Not Otherwise Specified, Follicular Helper T-cell Lymphomas, or Systemic Anaplastic Large-cell Lymphoma (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Moore David Scott | director | Purchase | 21,700 @ $11.53 | $250K | ownership Δ n/a | +26.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,700 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | MILLER RICHARD A MD | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $12.05 | $60K | +0.4% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,193,103 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | MILLER RICHARD A MD | director | Purchase | 1,932 @ $12.01 | $23K | +0.2% of holding | −2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,195,035 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 1,176,332 @ $4.16 | $4.9M | −14.1% of holding | +12.9% | +85.0% | 7,165,006 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Sale | 1,176,332 @ $4.16 | $4.9M | −14.1% of holding | +12.9% | +85.0% | 7,165,006 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Purchase | 1,444,085 @ $1.73 | $2.5M | ownership Δ n/a | +12.7% | +361.2% | 1,444,085 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,444,085 @ $1.73 | $2.5M | ownership Δ n/a | +12.7% | +361.2% | 1,444,085 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | MILLER RICHARD A MD | director | Purchase | 577,634 @ $1.73 | $1000K | ownership Δ n/a | +12.7% | +361.2% | 577,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | Jones William Benton | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.73 | $35K | +15.0% of holding | +12.7% | +361.2% | 153,773 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Purchase | 1,397,684 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +12.7% | +361.2% | 1,397,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Purchase | 1,397,684 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +12.7% | +361.2% | 1,397,684 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | Jones William Benton | officer | Purchase | 19,357 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +12.7% | +361.2% | 19,357 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-06 | MILLER RICHARD A MD | director | Purchase | 559,073 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +12.7% | +361.2% | 559,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
52 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | CLARK IAN T | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Grais Linda | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Moore David Scott | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | van den Broek Richard | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Chan Andrew C. | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 45,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 105,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 120,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 135,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 180,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 210,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 195,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 165,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 30,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Option exercise | 15,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Jones William Benton | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | LEA LEIV | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | MILLER RICHARD A MD | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Arcara Jeffrey | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-02 | Moore David Scott | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Exercise | 1,397,684 | 8,341,338 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Exercise | 1,397,684 | 8,341,338 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Exercise | 1,397,684 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Exercise | 1,397,684 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Thompson Peter A. | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Morrison Scott W | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | CLARK IAN T | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Grais Linda | director | Award / grant | 15,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Jones William Benton | officer | Option exercise | 19,357 | 173,130 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Jones William Benton | officer | Option exercise | 19,357 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Jones William Benton | officer | Option exercise | 19,357 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | MILLER RICHARD A MD | director | Option exercise | 559,073 | 1,136,707 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | MILLER RICHARD A MD | director | Option exercise | 559,073 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | MILLER RICHARD A MD | director | Option exercise | 559,073 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.