Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.24 · now $5.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, COUR has typically landed between $4.10 and $6.35 — a range of −21.7% to +21.1% from the issuance price $5.24.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,351 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where COUR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.24 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.24 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.1 (-2.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.62–$5.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.1–$6.35
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-12 | −36.2% | −36.2% | +3.9% |
| 2021-04-08 | −35.5% | −35.5% | +0.0% |
| 2024-04-29 | −35.4% | −35.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-06-26 | +64.9% | +0.0% | +64.9% |
| 2025-07-08 | +47.5% | −6.0% | +47.5% |
| 2025-06-25 | +45.4% | −4.9% | +45.4% |
1,351 overlapping windows · 2021-03-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Sale | 9,139 @ $5.71 | $52K | −3.7% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 236,237 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 935,596 @ $5.24 | $4.9M | −4.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,136,652 | Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 411,869 @ $5.24 | $2.2M | −4.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,984,135 | Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 59,179 @ $5.24 | $310K | −4.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,147,194 | Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 38,073 @ $5.24 | $200K | −4.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 738,040 | Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 21,655 @ $5.24 | $114K | −4.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 419,784 | Form 4 · filed 12 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 290,305 @ $5.41 | $1.6M | −1.5% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,072,248 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 127,799 @ $5.41 | $691K | −1.5% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,396,004 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 18,363 @ $5.41 | $99K | −1.5% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,206,373 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 11,814 @ $5.41 | $64K | −1.5% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 776,113 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 6,719 @ $5.41 | $36K | −1.5% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 441,439 | Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Insight Holdings Group, LLC | director | Sale | 78,628 @ $5.69 | $447K | −100.0% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Sale | 9,139 @ $5.52 | $50K | −3.4% of holding | −7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 255,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Sale | 9,710 @ $5.92 | $57K | −4.3% of holding | −1.3% | −20.2% | 217,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Sale | 8,078 @ $8.17 | $66K | −3.3% of holding | −19.4% | −42.0% | 237,828 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Meyers Michele M | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $10.27 | $36K | −1.5% of holding | −17.7% | −43.0% | 234,295 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Meyers Michele M | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $11.31 | $40K | −1.5% of holding | −14.1% | −48.4% | 237,795 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | HAHN KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 29,636 @ $11.97 | $355K | −3.0% of holding | −19.1% | −53.7% | 954,047 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | HAHN KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 20,364 @ $11.46 | $233K | −2.0% of holding | −18.2% | −52.9% | 983,683 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Sale | 24,631 @ $11.14 | $274K | −8.7% of holding | −3.8% | −51.2% | 258,526 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | HAHN KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $11.92 | $298K | −2.3% of holding | −9.7% | −55.3% | 1,050,853 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Meyers Michele M | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $11.94 | $30K | −1.0% of holding | −9.7% | −55.3% | 241,295 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | HAHN KENNETH R | officer | Sale | 75,000 @ $11.87 | $890K | −6.5% of holding | −10.8% | −56.5% | 1,075,853 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Meyers Michele M | officer | Sale | 12,500 @ $11.60 | $145K | −4.7% of holding | −10.8% | −58.1% | 253,351 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | SIMMONS SABRINA | director | Sale | 9,335 @ $8.48 | $79K | −15.7% of holding | −4.0% | −20.2% | 50,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | Clark Amanda | director | Sale | 9,334 @ $8.48 | $79K | −9.8% of holding | −4.0% | −20.2% | 85,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Sale | 6,101 @ $8.65 | $53K | −2.0% of holding | −5.1% | −17.7% | 293,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Ng Andrew Y. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $8.26 | $207K | −0.3% of holding | −6.0% | +33.0% | 7,221,561 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-19 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Sale | 5,613 @ $8.26 | $46K | −3.0% of holding | −6.0% | +33.0% | 180,413 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-18 | Ng Andrew Y. | director | Sale | 110 @ $8.65 | $952 | −0.0% of holding | −7.2% | +30.9% | 7,246,561 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Ng Andrew Y. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $8.67 | $217K | −0.3% of holding | −1.1% | −6.0% | 7,246,671 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | Ng Andrew Y. | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $8.75 | $219K | −0.3% of holding | −6.3% | −3.4% | 7,271,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | Ng Andrew Y. | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $8.78 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | −4.7% | −5.0% | 7,296,671 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
70 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Hart Gregory M. | director | Withheld for tax | 46,069 | 1,549,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,241 | 394,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,203 | 246,731 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,355 | 245,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Withheld for tax | 936 | 393,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Maco Marylou | director | Award / grant | 34,260 | 82,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Chang Carmen | director | Award / grant | 34,260 | 122,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Paterson Lydia | director | Award / grant | 34,260 | 110,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | SANDELL SCOTT D | director | Award / grant | 34,260 | 106,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | MITCHELL THEODORE | director | Award / grant | 34,260 | 106,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | McCarthy Christopher D. | director | Award / grant | 34,260 | 120,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Ng Andrew Y. | director | Award / grant | 34,260 | 7,277,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | ABBASI SOHAIB | director | Award / grant | 34,260 | 125,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hart Gregory M. | director | Withheld for tax | 46,069 | 1,595,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,241 | 407,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,201 | 266,428 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,355 | 265,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Withheld for tax | 935 | 406,141 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 275,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 418,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Foley Michael D. | officer | Award / grant | 350,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,745 | 255,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,741 | 398,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Award / grant | 41,498 | 259,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Award / grant | 41,498 | 402,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Hart Gregory M. | director | Withheld for tax | 46,069 | 1,641,449 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,657 | 360,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,759 | 228,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 483 | 227,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Hart Gregory M. | director | Withheld for tax | 185,653 | 1,687,518 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,366 | 371,217 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,089 | 246,437 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Meyers Michele M | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,555 | 224,740 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 531 | 245,906 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | HAHN KENNETH R | officer | Withheld for tax | 42,906 | 1,007,947 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Modica Marcelo | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,755 | 384,583 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,794 | 283,574 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Meyers Michele M | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,556 | 243,795 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | HAHN KENNETH R | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,900 | 1,004,047 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Cardenas Alan B | officer | Withheld for tax | 417 | 283,157 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.