Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.16 · now $29.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CNXC has typically landed between $22.73 and $34.79 — a range of −22.1% to +19.3% from the issuance price $29.16.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,437 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CNXC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $29.16 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $28.7 (-1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.24–$31.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.73–$34.79
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,437 windows spanning 2020-11-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-09-11 | −32.8% | −32.8% | +0.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | −32.3% | −32.3% | +0.1% |
| 2024-08-29 | −32.2% | −32.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-02-26 | +43.1% | −6.6% | +43.1% |
| 2020-12-14 | +30.3% | +0.0% | +30.3% |
| 2024-12-19 | +29.9% | +0.0% | +29.9% |
1,437 overlapping windows · 2020-11-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+5.1%
n=6
Feb
17%
−5.4%
n=6
Mar
33%
−1.4%
n=6
Apr
17%
−9.7%
n=6
May
50%
+4.7%
n=6
Jun
33%
−6.4%
n=6
Jul
67%
+4.4%
n=6
Aug
67%
+4.4%
n=6
Sep
33%
−9.4%
n=6
Oct
40%
−4.5%
n=5
Nov
60%
+2.5%
n=5
Dec
83%
+9.2%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $21.25 | $21K | +0.3% of holding | +22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 358,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Groupe Bruxelles Lambert | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,000,000 @ $22.25 | $133.5M | −68.4% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,773,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-09 | Valentine Andre S | officer | Purchase | 2,500 @ $27.95 | $70K | +2.9% of holding | −22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,066 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-26 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $26.97 | $27K | +0.3% of holding | −21.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 357,382 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-29 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $37.07 | $37K | +0.3% of holding | −15.9% | −42.0% | 362,075 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $35.50 | $18K | −1.4% of holding | +14.4% | −31.3% | 35,130 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $40.00 | $40K | +0.3% of holding | −9.6% | −46.2% | 287,661 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $42.03 | $84K | +0.7% of holding | −10.9% | −47.5% | 286,661 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $42.53 | $21K | −1.4% of holding | −10.9% | −47.5% | 35,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-10 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $45.35 | $45K | +0.3% of holding | −26.7% | −42.7% | 305,345 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $47.44 | $47K | +0.3% of holding | −10.1% | −40.4% | 304,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $47.08 | $24K | −1.4% of holding | −10.1% | −40.4% | 36,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $50.25 | $25K | −1.3% of holding | −16.1% | −43.3% | 36,630 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $57.91 | $29K | −1.3% of holding | −11.2% | −39.7% | 37,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $52.56 | $26K | −1.3% of holding | +2.5% | −30.8% | 37,630 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $57.06 | $29K | −1.3% of holding | −4.7% | −51.1% | 38,130 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $50.70 | $25K | −1.3% of holding | +3.3% | −40.1% | 38,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $46.00 | $46K | +0.3% of holding | +5.2% | −33.9% | 303,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 11,639 @ $48.19 | $561K | −4.0% of holding | +6.2% | −30.7% | 280,721 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 11,512 @ $48.20 | $555K | −1.0% of holding | +6.2% | −30.7% | 1,144,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 7,176 @ $48.21 | $346K | −43.0% of holding | +6.2% | −30.7% | 9,499 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 23,024 @ $48.24 | $1.1M | −7.1% of holding | +5.9% | −30.7% | 299,042 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 22,736 @ $48.25 | $1.1M | −1.9% of holding | +5.9% | −30.7% | 1,162,570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 12,473 @ $48.30 | $602K | −34.6% of holding | +5.9% | −30.7% | 23,568 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 6,893 @ $49.42 | $341K | −29.2% of holding | +5.9% | −30.7% | 16,675 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 6,708 @ $49.45 | $332K | −0.6% of holding | +5.9% | −30.7% | 1,155,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 6,454 @ $49.47 | $319K | −2.2% of holding | +5.9% | −30.7% | 292,588 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Duha Olivier | director | Sale | 228 @ $50.08 | $11K | −0.1% of holding | +5.9% | −30.7% | 292,360 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $55.31 | $28K | −1.3% of holding | −6.8% | −35.8% | 39,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $45.14 | $23K | −1.2% of holding | +28.8% | +9.0% | 39,630 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-29 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $55.60 | $28K | −1.2% of holding | −14.5% | −7.6% | 41,111 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Hayley Kathryn | director | Purchase | 500 @ $50.22 | $25K | +19.7% of holding | −8.6% | +17.1% | 3,034 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $44.05 | $22K | −2.0% of holding | +20.2% | +27.9% | 23,936 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | VEZINA ANN F | director | Award / grant | 7,701 | 19,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Hayley Kathryn | director | Award / grant | 7,701 | 17,712 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Deason Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 7,701 | 17,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Cheng Chih-Kai | director | Award / grant | 7,701 | 7,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Council LaVerne H | director | Award / grant | 7,701 | 17,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | Marinello Kathryn V | director | Award / grant | 7,701 | 17,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | OGUT BILGE | director | Award / grant | 7,701 | 7,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-25 | POLK DENNIS | director | Award / grant | 7,701 | 28,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Withheld for tax | 5,693 | 356,382 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,439 | 56,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Valentine Andre S | officer | Withheld for tax | 864 | 86,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Gibson Craig | officer | Withheld for tax | 799 | 53,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Fogarty Jane | officer | Withheld for tax | 563 | 31,030 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Withheld for tax | 1,210 | 361,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Withheld for tax | 231 | 58,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Valentine Andre S | officer | Withheld for tax | 130 | 87,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Fogarty Jane | officer | Withheld for tax | 79 | 31,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Valentine Andre S | officer | Award / grant | 436 | 87,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Fogarty Jane | officer | Award / grant | 220 | 31,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Award / grant | 491 | 58,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Award / grant | 2,855 | 362,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Withheld for tax | 2,591 | 359,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Withheld for tax | 495 | 58,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Valentine Andre S | officer | Withheld for tax | 278 | 87,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Fogarty Jane | officer | Withheld for tax | 168 | 31,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Withheld for tax | 1,751 | 362,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Withheld for tax | 292 | 58,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Valentine Andre S | officer | Withheld for tax | 164 | 87,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Fogarty Jane | officer | Withheld for tax | 105 | 31,620 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Withheld for tax | 10,105 | 363,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,893 | 58,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Valentine Andre S | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,994 | 87,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Gibson Craig | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,625 | 54,398 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Fogarty Jane | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,319 | 31,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Award / grant | 93,291 | 373,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Gibson Craig | officer | Award / grant | 15,015 | 56,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Fogarty Jane | officer | Award / grant | 13,913 | 33,044 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Valentine Andre S | officer | Award / grant | 25,694 | 89,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Twomey Cormac J | officer | Award / grant | 26,724 | 61,854 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-01 | Caldwell Christopher A | director | Withheld for tax | 7,075 | 280,586 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.