Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.83 · now $1.83 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CMPX has typically landed between $1.26 and $2.54 — a range of −31.0% to +39.0% from the issuance price $1.83.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,348 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CMPX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.83 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.82 (-0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.57–$2.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.26–$2.54
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-04-16 | −72.0% | −74.4% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-17 | −69.8% | −72.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-04-15 | −68.2% | −71.5% | +11.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-01-07 | +144.8% | +0.0% | +144.8% |
| 2024-12-19 | +126.3% | +0.0% | +126.3% |
| 2025-01-02 | +122.9% | +0.0% | +130.0% |
1,348 overlapping windows · 2021-04-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-27 | Schuetz Thomas J. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.11 | $21K | +0.2% of holding | +19.4% | +120.8% | 6,480,825 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-09 | ORBIMED ADVISORS LLC | director | Sale | 3,571,428 @ $1.59 | $5.7M | −100.0% of holding | +1.1% | +109.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | GORDON CARL L | director | Sale | 3,571,428 @ $1.59 | $5.7M | −100.0% of holding | +1.1% | +109.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Anderman Jonathan | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.54 | $31K | +2000.0% of holding | +0.8% | +96.5% | 21,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Lerner Neil | officer | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.42 | $28K | +6.7% of holding | +0.8% | +96.5% | 320,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | Anderman Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 25,000 | 196,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Lerner Neil | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 397,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-08 | Schuetz Thomas J. | director | Withheld for tax | 36,687 | 6,603,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Schuetz Thomas J. | director | Withheld for tax | 46,777 | 6,640,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Schuetz Thomas J. | director | Award / grant | 250,000 | 6,686,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Anderman Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 171,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Shin Barry | officer | Award / grant | 125,000 | 525,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lerner Neil | officer | Award / grant | 62,500 | 382,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Schuetz Thomas J. | director | Award / grant | 2,000,000 | 2,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Sirard Cynthia | officer | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Anderman Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 720,000 | 720,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Shin Barry | officer | Award / grant | 670,000 | 670,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Boylan James P | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Chiniara Ellen | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | LINDAHL RICHARD S | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Ferneau Philip | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | GORDON CARL L | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | GRAY MARY ANN | director | Award / grant | 90,000 | 90,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Prasad Arjun | officer | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,000,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lerner Neil | officer | Award / grant | 435,000 | 435,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-16 | Schuetz Thomas J. | director | Withheld for tax | 44,025 | 6,436,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Schuetz Thomas J. | director | Award / grant | 1,500,000 | 1,500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Shin Barry | officer | Award / grant | 250,000 | 250,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | GRAY MARY ANN | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Anderman Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 280,000 | 280,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Boylan James P | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Ferneau Philip | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | GORDON CARL L | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | LINDAHL RICHARD S | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Lerner Neil | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-11 | Chiniara Ellen | director | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-08 | Schuetz Thomas J. | director | Withheld for tax | 41,687 | 6,470,825 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-09 | Schuetz Thomas J. | director | Withheld for tax | 58,054 | 6,512,512 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Shin Barry | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-09 | Shin Barry | officer | Award / grant | 400,000 | 400,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.