CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $66.84 · now $66.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CFG has typically landed between $57.72 and $77.68 — a range of −13.6% to +16.2% from the issuance price $66.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,991 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-09-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($66.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CFG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $66.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$57.72worst · -13.6%$77.68best · +16.2%
  • now $66.84 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $67.64 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $63.16–$72.13
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $57.72–$77.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,991 windows spanning 2014-09-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−59.6%−59.6%+2.2%
2020-02-21−57.8%−59.3%+0.0%
2020-02-20−54.8%−60.5%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+43.1%−9.1%+43.1%
2020-05-06+42.4%−5.9%+42.4%
2020-05-15+36.7%+0.0%+52.6%

2,991 overlapping windows · 2014-09-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$30.4B
market cap
$4.60
EPS (TTM)
15.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-16
next earnings
Revenue$11.1B
'20'25
Net income$1.8B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr16.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr7.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.43
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $66.84$45.99$348.31
  • DCF (intrinsic)$327.46
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$75.36
  • Analyst target · range $70.00–$90.00$80.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$66.84

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+3.1%
n=12
Feb
42%
−0.5%
n=12
Mar
33%
−7.6%
n=12
Apr
67%
+3.7%
n=12
May
58%
+0.3%
n=12
Jun
67%
+0.4%
n=12
Jul
67%
+5.7%
n=12
Aug
50%
−0.3%
n=12
Sep
33%
−0.3%
n=12
Oct
75%
+2.3%
n=12
Nov
83%
+9.8%
n=12
Dec
58%
+1.6%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$75$472026-07-24: 1 insider sale, $9.3M — VAN SAUN BRUCE2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $376K — Moosally Michelle2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $769K — LaMonica Susan2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $769K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $376K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $9.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector VAN SAUN BRUCE — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Moosally Michelle — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer LaMonica Susan — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24VAN SAUN BRUCEdirectorSale129,369 @ $72.07$9.3M−10.2% of holding−5.0%not yet — horizon still open1,140,763Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-12Moosally MichelleofficerSale6,050 @ $62.16$376K−21.1% of holding+7.4%not yet — horizon still open22,565Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-11LaMonica SusanofficerSale13,258 @ $58.04$769K−7.4% of holding+8.9%+7.2%165,971Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02Swift ChristopherdirectorPurchase20 @ $40.06$801+0.1% of holding+12.4%+23.3%26,319Form 4 · filed 441 days after the trade
2024-02-06Swift ChristopherdirectorPurchase10 @ $31.47$315+0.0% of holding+3.2%+18.7%26,299Form 4 · filed 923 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

165 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Boss MatthewofficerWithheld for tax10,77873,824Form 4
2026-08-13Alexander LeedirectorAward / grant16226,289Form 4
2026-08-13Atkinson Tracy AdirectorAward / grant7812,716Form 4
2026-08-13Cumming Christine MdirectorAward / grant26952,933Form 4
2026-08-13SIEKERKA MICHELE NdirectorAward / grant13466,456Form 4
2026-08-13Leary Robert GdirectorAward / grant20833,782Form 4
2026-08-13KELLY EDWARD J IIIdirectorAward / grant24639,909Form 4
2026-08-13Swift ChristopherdirectorAward / grant16226,289Form 4
2026-08-13ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorAward / grant26958,062Form 4
2026-08-13Wade Claude E.directorAward / grant477,654Form 4
2026-08-13Lillis TerrancedirectorAward / grant24639,909Form 4
2026-08-13Cummings KevindirectorAward / grant134473,949Form 4
2026-07-24VAN SAUN BRUCEdirectorGift20,8501,119,913Form 4
2026-07-24VAN SAUN BRUCEdirectorGift17,5001,102,413Form 4
2026-06-15Stein Richard L.officerWithheld for tax4,91384,633Form 4
2026-05-14SIEKERKA MICHELE NdirectorAward / grant16266,322Form 4
2026-05-14Swift ChristopherdirectorAward / grant19526,127Form 4
2026-05-14Atkinson Tracy AdirectorAward / grant9412,638Form 4
2026-05-14KELLY EDWARD J IIIdirectorAward / grant29639,662Form 4
2026-05-14Alexander LeedirectorAward / grant19526,127Form 4
2026-05-14Wade Claude E.directorAward / grant577,606Form 4
2026-05-14ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorAward / grant32357,793Form 4
2026-05-14Cummings KevindirectorAward / grant162473,814Form 4
2026-05-14Cumming Christine MdirectorAward / grant32352,664Form 4
2026-05-14Lillis TerrancedirectorAward / grant29639,662Form 4
2026-05-14Leary Robert GdirectorAward / grant25133,574Form 4
2026-04-23Cummings KevindirectorAward / grant2,608473,653Form 4
2026-04-23Cumming Christine MdirectorAward / grant2,60852,341Form 4
2026-04-23KELLY EDWARD J IIIdirectorAward / grant2,60839,366Form 4
2026-04-23Alexander LeedirectorAward / grant2,60825,932Form 4
2026-04-23Atkinson Tracy AdirectorAward / grant2,60812,544Form 4
2026-04-23Lillis TerrancedirectorAward / grant2,60839,366Form 4
2026-04-23SIEKERKA MICHELE NdirectorAward / grant2,60866,160Form 4
2026-04-23Leary Robert GdirectorAward / grant2,60833,323Form 4
2026-04-23Swift ChristopherdirectorAward / grant2,60825,932Form 4
2026-04-23Wade Claude E.directorAward / grant2,6087,550Form 4
2026-04-23ZURAITIS MARITAdirectorAward / grant2,60857,470Form 4
2026-03-01VAN SAUN BRUCEdirectorWithheld for tax79,3151,270,132Form 4
2026-03-01MCCREE DONALD H IIIofficerWithheld for tax31,099251,106Form 4
2026-03-01Coughlin BrendanofficerWithheld for tax22,659284,928Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-12$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2024-02-142024-01-19$15–50K
Kathy ManningHousepurchase2024-02-062024-01-23$15–50K
Kathy ManningHousepurchase2024-02-062024-01-23$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousesale2024-01-122023-12-12$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousesale2024-01-122023-12-12$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousesale2024-01-122023-12-12$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.