CELCCelcuity Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $82.58 · now $82.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CELC has typically landed between $63.72 and $108.40 — a range of −22.8% to +31.3% from the issuance price $82.58.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,237 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-09-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($82.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where CELC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $82.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$63.72worst · -22.8%$108.4best · +31.3%
  • now $82.58 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $83.18 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $74.84–$91.51
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $63.72–$108.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,237 windows spanning 2017-09-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-13−46.6%−46.6%+0.0%
2020-02-18−39.2%−44.1%+0.0%
2026-05-04−38.6%−38.6%+0.0%
3 best
2025-07-14+280.9%−1.5%+280.9%
2025-07-15+276.6%−1.7%+280.0%
2025-07-17+275.1%−1.5%+280.9%

2,237 overlapping windows · 2017-09-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • January 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 1/Phase PHASE2 primary completion: Gedatolisib in Combination With Darolutamide in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
  • 2029-03-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Phase 3 Study of Gedatolisib as First-Line Treatment for Patients With HR-Positive, HER2-Negative Advanced Breast Cancer (VIKTORIA-2) (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.2%
n=9
Feb
56%
−2.8%
n=9
Mar
44%
−0.2%
n=9
Apr
67%
+7.2%
n=9
May
56%
+7.0%
n=9
Jun
67%
+6.4%
n=9
Jul
22%
+14.0%
n=9
Aug
67%
+1.8%
n=9
Sep
33%
−1.9%
n=9
Oct
56%
+12.6%
n=9
Nov
44%
+7.1%
n=9
Dec
33%
+2.8%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$145$452026-07-14: 2 insider sales, $317.8M — BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP …2026-05-04: 7 insider sales, $4.8M — Dalvey David, Buller Richard E …2026-03-31: 2 insider sales, $331K — Buller Richard E …2026-01-27: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Dalvey David2025-12-05: 2 insider sales, $317K — Buller Richard E …2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $108K — Buller Richard E2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Dalvey David2025-11-20: 1 insider sale, $377K — Buller Richard E2025-09-08: 4 insider purchases, $9.6M — BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP …2025-09: 4 open-market purchases, $9.6M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $1.9M2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $425K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $2.4M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $331K2026-05: 7 open-market sales, $4.8M2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $317.8M↑ buys↓ salesdirector BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP — Sale on 2026-07-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP — Sale on 2026-07-14, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dalvey David — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dalvey David — Sale on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Dalvey David — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Buller Richard E — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP — Purchase on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP — Purchase on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP — Purchase on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP — Purchase on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-14BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LPdirectorSale2,838,632 @ $102.50$291.0M−39.4% of holding−19.8%not yet — horizon still open4,372,852Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-14BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LPdirectorSale261,368 @ $102.50$26.8M−37.1% of holding−19.8%not yet — horizon still open442,940Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04Dalvey DaviddirectorSale25,000 @ $140.68$3.5M−27.8% of holding−43.7%not yet — horizon still open65,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04Buller Richard EdirectorSale2,825 @ $142.04$401K−28.4% of holding−43.7%not yet — horizon still open7,125Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04Buller Richard EdirectorSale2,301 @ $141.03$325K−18.8% of holding−43.7%not yet — horizon still open9,950Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04Buller Richard EdirectorSale1,670 @ $139.58$233K−12.0% of holding−43.7%not yet — horizon still open12,251Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04Buller Richard EdirectorSale1,289 @ $137.00$177K−8.2% of holding−43.7%not yet — horizon still open14,471Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04Buller Richard EdirectorSale550 @ $139.00$76K−3.8% of holding−43.7%not yet — horizon still open13,921Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04Buller Richard EdirectorSale365 @ $143.24$52K−5.1% of holding−43.7%not yet — horizon still open6,760Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-31Buller Richard EdirectorSale2,325 @ $110.11$256K−23.8% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open7,435Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-31Buller Richard EdirectorSale675 @ $110.83$75K−9.1% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open6,760Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27Dalvey DaviddirectorSale20,000 @ $120.03$2.4M−18.2% of holding−4.3%−34.4%90,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05Buller Richard EdirectorSale1,510 @ $106.04$160K−18.3% of holding+2.5%−20.4%6,760Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Buller Richard EdirectorSale1,490 @ $105.34$157K−15.3% of holding+2.5%−20.4%8,270Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-01Buller Richard EdirectorSale1,100 @ $98.13$108K−13.2% of holding+0.7%−21.2%7,260Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-21Dalvey DaviddirectorSale15,000 @ $100.00$1.5M−12.0% of holding+0.3%+22.9%110,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-20Buller Richard EdirectorSale3,900 @ $96.73$377K−34.9% of holding+2.3%+27.1%7,260Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LPdirectorPurchase151,524 @ $56.22$8.5M+2.1% of holding−24.7%+82.3%7,207,272Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LPdirectorPurchase13,976 @ $56.22$786K+2.0% of holding−24.7%+82.3%703,920Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LPdirectorPurchase4,212 @ $58.02$244K+0.1% of holding−24.7%+82.3%7,211,484Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LPdirectorPurchase388 @ $58.02$23K+0.1% of holding−24.7%+82.3%704,308Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28Dalvey DaviddirectorSale57,044 @ $43.30$2.5M−25.4% of holding+257.9%+741.7%167,956Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28Dalvey DaviddirectorSale22,377 @ $44.36$993K−13.3% of holding+257.9%+741.7%145,579Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28Dalvey DaviddirectorSale16,438 @ $45.29$744K−11.3% of holding+257.9%+741.7%129,141Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28Dalvey DaviddirectorSale4,141 @ $46.05$191K−3.2% of holding+257.9%+741.7%125,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28Dalvey DaviddirectorSale4,163 @ $45.24$188K−67.3% of holding+257.9%+741.7%2,025Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28Dalvey DaviddirectorSale3,137 @ $44.36$139K−33.6% of holding+257.9%+741.7%6,188Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28Dalvey DaviddirectorSale2,025 @ $46.05$93K−100.0% of holding+257.9%+741.7%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

73 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Laing Lance G.directorAward / grant20,0001,271,000Form 4
2026-08-14Hahne VickyofficerAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-08-14Hahne VickyofficerAward / grant16,00037,808Form 4
2026-08-14Laing Lance G.directorAward / grant10,00010,000Form 4
2026-08-14Sullivan Brian F.directorAward / grant80,0001,450,199Form 4
2026-08-14Sullivan Brian F.directorAward / grant120,000120,000Form 4
2026-06-10Murphy Polly A.directorGift14,04814,048Form 4
2026-06-10Murphy Polly A.directorGift14,0480Form 4
2026-06-10Buller Richard EdirectorGift12,50312,503Form 4
2026-06-10Buller Richard EdirectorGift12,5030Form 4
2026-06-05Furcht LeodirectorAward / grant1,53012,530Form 4
2026-06-05Murphy Polly A.directorAward / grant1,5306,530Form 4
2026-06-05Dalvey DaviddirectorAward / grant1,5301,530Form 4
2026-06-05ROMP CHARLES RdirectorAward / grant1,5301,745Form 4
2026-06-05Buller Richard EdirectorAward / grant1,5301,530Form 4
2026-06-05NIGON RICHARDdirectorAward / grant1,53080,565Form 4
2026-06-02Laing Lance G.directorOption exercise1,0001,251,000Form 4
2026-06-02Laing Lance G.directorOption exercise1,00020,250Form 4
2026-05-19Buller Richard EdirectorGift1,0297,789Form 4
2026-05-19Buller Richard EdirectorGift1,0290Form 4
2026-05-04Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise9,00015,760Form 4
2026-05-04Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise9,000654Form 4
2026-04-09NIGON RICHARDdirectorGift10,00079,035Form 4
2026-03-31Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise3,0009,760Form 4
2026-03-31Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise3,0009,654Form 4
2026-02-11ROMP CHARLES RdirectorAward / grant215215Form 4
2025-12-15NIGON RICHARDdirectorGift19,97589,035Form 4
2025-12-05Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise3,0009,760Form 4
2025-12-05Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise3,0001,555Form 4
2025-12-04Furcht LeodirectorOption exercise25011,000Form 4
2025-12-04Furcht LeodirectorOption exercise2500Form 4
2025-12-02Buller Richard EdirectorGift5006,760Form 4
2025-12-01Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise1,1008,360Form 4
2025-12-01Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise1,1001,522Form 4
2025-11-20Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise3,90011,160Form 4
2025-11-20Buller Richard EdirectorOption exercise3,9002,622Form 4
2025-11-19Buller Richard EdirectorGift5007,260Form 4
2025-09-11NIGON RICHARDdirectorExercise4,672105,765Form 4
2025-09-11NIGON RICHARDdirectorExercise3,245109,010Form 4
2025-09-11NIGON RICHARDdirectorExercise3,2450Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.