Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.34 · now $1.34 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CDXS has typically landed between $0.86 and $1.89 — a range of −35.5% to +41.3% from the issuance price $1.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,105 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-04-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CDXS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.28 (-4.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.1–$1.47
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.8645–$1.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,105 windows spanning 2010-04-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-07-28 | −54.4% | −56.1% | +0.0% |
| 2023-07-21 | −53.9% | −55.7% | +0.0% |
| 2023-07-26 | −53.7% | −53.7% | +5.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-10 | +93.5% | +0.0% | +93.5% |
| 2026-03-30 | +84.9% | +0.0% | +85.5% |
| 2026-03-27 | +78.5% | −3.8% | +78.5% |
4,105 overlapping windows · 2010-04-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+3.1%
n=16
Feb
31%
−2.7%
n=16
Mar
56%
+4.7%
n=16
Apr
31%
−3.0%
n=16
May
35%
−3.6%
n=17
Jun
47%
+1.8%
n=17
Jul
47%
+0.1%
n=17
Aug
53%
−3.8%
n=17
Sep
41%
−1.6%
n=17
Oct
44%
+2.3%
n=16
Nov
50%
+8.1%
n=16
Dec
63%
+3.7%
n=16
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | De Vre Raymond | director | Sale | 2,605 @ $2.37 | $6K | −3.0% of holding | −13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,811 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Lutz Stefan | officer | Sale | 5,862 @ $1.13 | $7K | −4.3% of holding | +61.8% | +39.3% | 130,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Erbez Georgia | director | Sale | 3,826 @ $1.31 | $5K | −5.4% of holding | −4.8% | +0.3% | 66,810 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | MOORE ALISON | director | Sale | 3,826 @ $1.31 | $5K | −1.5% of holding | −4.8% | +0.3% | 250,506 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Lutz Stefan | officer | Sale | 2,492 @ $1.31 | $3K | −1.8% of holding | −4.8% | +0.3% | 136,283 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Lutz Stefan | officer | Sale | 4,685 @ $1.70 | $8K | −3.3% of holding | −21.9% | +32.9% | 138,775 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 245,000 @ $1.67 | $409K | −2.4% of holding | −1.8% | +53.3% | 9,955,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,533 @ $1.67 | $14K | −4.5% of holding | −1.8% | +53.3% | 179,989 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-28 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 105,000 @ $1.75 | $184K | −1.0% of holding | −8.3% | +43.7% | 10,200,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-28 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,490 @ $1.75 | $4K | −1.3% of holding | −8.3% | +43.7% | 188,522 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 148,318 @ $1.74 | $258K | +1.5% of holding | −7.2% | +41.2% | 10,305,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,000 @ $1.74 | $9K | −2.6% of holding | −7.2% | +41.2% | 191,012 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | WOLF DENNIS P | director | Sale | 8,952 @ $1.56 | $14K | −6.1% of holding | +2.4% | +56.9% | 138,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 890,000 @ $1.94 | $1.7M | +9.1% of holding | −13.2% | +18.7% | 10,618,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 165,000 @ $1.96 | $324K | −1.6% of holding | −13.2% | +18.7% | 10,453,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 27,459 @ $1.94 | $53K | −12.3% of holding | −13.2% | +18.7% | 196,012 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 535,000 @ $1.80 | $963K | −4.4% of holding | −5.9% | +32.6% | 11,508,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,211 @ $1.80 | $24K | −5.6% of holding | −5.9% | +32.6% | 223,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | De Vre Raymond | director | Sale | 1,413 @ $1.74 | $2K | −1.6% of holding | −5.9% | +32.6% | 87,416 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 205,000 @ $1.73 | $356K | −1.7% of holding | +3.1% | +33.3% | 12,043,318 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,318 @ $1.73 | $6K | −1.4% of holding | +3.1% | +33.3% | 236,682 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 296,682 @ $1.70 | $503K | +2.5% of holding | +8.9% | +39.7% | 12,248,318 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 10,000 @ $1.70 | $17K | −4.0% of holding | +8.9% | +39.7% | 240,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | MOORE ALISON | director | Sale | 6,239 @ $2.51 | $16K | −3.6% of holding | −31.0% | −7.8% | 169,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Erbez Georgia | director | Sale | 6,239 @ $2.50 | $16K | −8.1% of holding | −31.0% | −7.8% | 70,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 780 @ $2.83 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −17.1% | −62.0% | 12,545,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-31 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 84,220 @ $2.68 | $226K | +0.7% of holding | −0.2% | −63.8% | 12,544,220 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 1,578 @ $2.79 | $4K | +0.0% of holding | −4.8% | −63.4% | 12,460,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,422 @ $2.82 | $24K | +0.1% of holding | −7.1% | −64.4% | 12,458,422 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $2.82 | $282K | +0.8% of holding | +3.9% | −51.6% | 12,450,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $2.39 | $239K | +0.8% of holding | +14.7% | −44.7% | 12,350,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,898 @ $2.24 | $114K | +0.4% of holding | +24.1% | −40.8% | 12,250,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-13 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 99,102 @ $2.23 | $221K | +0.8% of holding | +23.4% | −40.0% | 12,199,102 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $2.25 | $225K | +0.8% of holding | +21.5% | −38.8% | 12,100,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.36 | $12K | +0.0% of holding | −2.4% | −43.4% | 12,000,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-23 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,320,000 @ $2.36 | $5.5M | +24.0% of holding | −0.6% | −50.3% | 11,995,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-01 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $2.32 | $46K | +0.2% of holding | −9.1% | −20.7% | 9,675,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-30 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $2.31 | $58K | +0.3% of holding | −6.3% | −19.5% | 9,655,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-25 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $2.24 | $56K | +0.3% of holding | +5.5% | −4.2% | 9,630,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 45,000 @ $2.09 | $94K | +0.5% of holding | +2.2% | −1.3% | 9,605,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-16 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 70,000 @ $2.13 | $149K | +0.7% of holding | +3.5% | −1.9% | 9,560,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $2.23 | $56K | +0.3% of holding | +1.7% | −2.7% | 9,490,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $1.98 | $198K | +1.1% of holding | +11.1% | −1.8% | 9,465,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 75,000 @ $2.30 | $173K | +0.8% of holding | +4.6% | −14.5% | 9,365,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-02 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 5,000 @ $2.46 | $12K | +0.1% of holding | +0.8% | −18.0% | 9,290,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 35,000 @ $2.48 | $87K | +0.4% of holding | −7.1% | −20.2% | 9,285,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 92,923 @ $2.54 | $236K | +1.0% of holding | −6.0% | −20.1% | 9,250,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-20 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7 @ $2.54 | $18 | +0.0% of holding | −7.6% | −22.3% | 9,157,077 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 85,000 @ $2.54 | $216K | +0.9% of holding | −4.2% | −23.9% | 9,150,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $2.61 | $261K | +1.1% of holding | −10.5% | −25.0% | 9,065,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $2.69 | $27K | +0.1% of holding | −8.4% | −23.4% | 8,965,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 55,000 @ $2.64 | $145K | +0.6% of holding | −5.2% | −22.3% | 8,955,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 47,351 @ $2.81 | $133K | +0.5% of holding | −4.8% | −18.7% | 8,900,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 147,649 @ $2.99 | $441K | +1.7% of holding | −5.9% | −19.4% | 8,852,649 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 15,000 @ $4.00 | $60K | +0.2% of holding | −25.8% | −32.3% | 8,705,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-11 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 12,500 @ $4.11 | $51K | +0.1% of holding | −30.0% | −33.5% | 8,690,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 22,500 @ $4.18 | $94K | +0.3% of holding | −26.4% | −38.5% | 8,677,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-31 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 45,000 @ $4.29 | $193K | +0.5% of holding | −31.9% | −37.7% | 8,655,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-30 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.49 | $90K | +0.2% of holding | −35.6% | −43.6% | 8,610,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-31 | Opaleye Management Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.66 | $47K | +0.1% of holding | −12.5% | −52.4% | 8,590,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
32 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Smith David V | director | Award / grant | 66,350 | 66,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | DILLY STEPHEN GEORGE | director | Award / grant | 66,350 | 66,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Richards Christos | director | Award / grant | 66,350 | 66,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Singhvi Rahul | director | Award / grant | 66,350 | 66,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Collins Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 66,350 | 66,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | PARKER H STEWART | director | Award / grant | 66,350 | 66,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Martinborough Esther | director | Award / grant | 66,350 | 66,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | De Vre Raymond | director | Award / grant | 66,350 | 66,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Lutz Stefan | officer | Award / grant | 316,100 | 316,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Erbez Georgia | director | Award / grant | 316,100 | 316,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | MOORE ALISON | director | Award / grant | 993,000 | 993,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | MOORE ALISON | director | Award / grant | 85,000 | 254,332 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-13 | MOORE ALISON | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-11 | DILLY STEPHEN GEORGE | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 727,053 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | De Vre Raymond | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 88,829 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Collins Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 112,157 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Singhvi Rahul | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 137,052 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Smith David V | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 105,705 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Martinborough Esther | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 129,036 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | PARKER H STEWART | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 143,583 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | Richards Christos | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 85,133 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | WOLF DENNIS P | director | Award / grant | 40,983 | 147,903 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Collins Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 71,174 | 71,174 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | MOORE ALISON | director | Award / grant | 26,875 | 175,571 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | MOORE ALISON | director | Award / grant | 161,250 | 161,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Norrett Kevin | officer | Award / grant | 26,875 | 177,327 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Norrett Kevin | officer | Award / grant | 161,250 | 161,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | DILLY STEPHEN GEORGE | director | Award / grant | 88,750 | 673,053 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | DILLY STEPHEN GEORGE | director | Award / grant | 532,500 | 532,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Erbez Georgia | director | Award / grant | 26,875 | 76,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-05 | Erbez Georgia | director | Award / grant | 161,250 | 161,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-14 | Richards Christos | director | Award / grant | 44,150 | 44,150 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.