Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.85 · now $46.85 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, CART has typically landed between $39.90 and $55.30 — a range of −14.8% to +18.0% from the issuance price $46.85.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
730 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-09-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.85) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where CART has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.85 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $46.85 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $47.8 (+2.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $44.13–$51.46
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $39.9–$55.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 730 windows spanning 2023-09-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-19 | −26.8% | −29.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-20 | −26.0% | −28.7% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-11 | −24.6% | −24.6% | +7.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-15 | +42.0% | +0.0% | +42.0% |
| 2024-02-07 | +40.6% | +0.0% | +40.6% |
| 2024-02-06 | +40.5% | −0.0% | +40.5% |
730 overlapping windows · 2023-09-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
+1.1%
n=3
Feb
67%
+6.3%
n=3
Mar
33%
+3.8%
n=3
Apr
33%
+1.5%
n=3
May
33%
−0.7%
n=3
Jun
67%
+7.8%
n=3
Jul
67%
+2.5%
n=3
Aug
67%
+2.6%
n=3
Sep
33%
−3.0%
n=3
Oct
67%
−2.8%
n=3
Nov
33%
+3.7%
n=3
Dec
33%
−0.4%
n=3
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Laughton Mary Beth | director | Sale | 10,236 @ $50.33 | $515K | −48.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,890 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 14,091 @ $49.81 | $702K | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 534,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 4,299 @ $50.47 | $217K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 529,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Gupta Ravi | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $50.61 | $7.6M | −20.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 591,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Rogers Chris | director | Sale | 7,606 @ $48.95 | $372K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 916,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Reuter Emily | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $50.01 | $1.3M | −3.6% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 668,525 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Rogers Chris | director | Sale | 4,933 @ $50.00 | $247K | −0.5% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 968,049 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-22 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 18,390 @ $44.34 | $815K | −3.3% of holding | +12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 544,078 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | BLACKWOOD-KAPRAL LISA | officer | Sale | 3,016 @ $47.64 | $144K | −6.1% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,835 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | BLACKWOOD-KAPRAL LISA | officer | Sale | 3,017 @ $41.24 | $124K | −5.7% of holding | +9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,851 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Gupta Ravi | director | Sale | 181,000 @ $41.51 | $7.5M | −19.6% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 741,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Rogers Chris | director | Sale | 7,893 @ $40.66 | $321K | −0.8% of holding | +7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 972,982 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 12,575 @ $39.88 | $502K | −2.3% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 545,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 1,458 @ $40.39 | $59K | −0.3% of holding | +4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 544,078 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | BLACKWOOD-KAPRAL LISA | officer | Sale | 9,390 @ $40.25 | $378K | −13.7% of holding | −13.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | BLACKWOOD-KAPRAL LISA | officer | Sale | 9,390 @ $38.74 | $364K | −16.5% of holding | +1.6% | +7.0% | 47,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 75,219 @ $36.87 | $2.8M | −14.7% of holding | +5.7% | +15.4% | 437,507 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 35,121 @ $37.57 | $1.3M | −8.0% of holding | +5.7% | +15.4% | 402,386 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 10,788 @ $36.87 | $398K | −2.7% of holding | +5.7% | +15.4% | 391,598 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 4,955 @ $37.59 | $186K | −1.3% of holding | +5.7% | +15.4% | 386,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Sarafan Lily | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $36.53 | $128K | −14.0% of holding | +6.0% | +27.8% | 21,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 4,012 @ $45.09 | $181K | −1.0% of holding | −12.0% | −3.8% | 405,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 902 @ $45.74 | $41K | −0.2% of holding | −12.0% | −3.8% | 404,940 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Laughton Mary Beth | director | Sale | 4,056 @ $40.72 | $165K | −21.2% of holding | +7.3% | −13.9% | 15,078 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 4,914 @ $41.25 | $203K | −1.2% of holding | +7.9% | −13.7% | 409,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 4,065 @ $39.91 | $162K | −0.7% of holding | +14.3% | −8.0% | 565,677 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 3,546 @ $38.85 | $138K | −0.8% of holding | +7.5% | +5.2% | 427,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-16 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 1,014 @ $40.00 | $41K | −0.2% of holding | +3.6% | +5.0% | 569,742 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 3,051 @ $39.60 | $121K | −0.5% of holding | +0.9% | −2.7% | 570,756 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Rogers Chris | director | Sale | 9,259 @ $42.37 | $392K | −1.2% of holding | −8.8% | −12.6% | 739,880 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 3,546 @ $42.39 | $150K | −0.8% of holding | −8.8% | −12.6% | 431,069 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 3,739 @ $47.06 | $176K | −0.6% of holding | −15.4% | −19.8% | 577,208 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 3,401 @ $47.58 | $162K | −0.6% of holding | −15.4% | −19.8% | 573,807 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Rogers Chris | director | Sale | 6,437 @ $45.59 | $293K | −1.5% of holding | −13.1% | −29.0% | 426,873 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Rogers Chris | director | Sale | 2,550 @ $46.24 | $118K | −0.6% of holding | −13.1% | −29.0% | 424,323 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 3,544 @ $45.65 | $162K | −0.8% of holding | −5.9% | −31.1% | 434,615 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-12 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 7,140 @ $51.47 | $367K | −0.4% of holding | −12.2% | −43.7% | 1,901,847 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-08 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 47,261 @ $51.71 | $2.4M | −2.4% of holding | −13.3% | −40.9% | 1,908,987 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 2,557 @ $50.86 | $130K | −0.1% of holding | −13.3% | −40.9% | 1,956,248 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | GCM Grosvenor Inc. | director | Sale | 4,238,887 @ $47.75 | $202.4M | −53.7% of holding | −12.5% | −26.0% | 3,653,606 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | GCM Grosvenor L.P. | other | Sale | 4,238,887 @ $47.75 | $202.4M | −53.7% of holding | −12.5% | −26.0% | 3,653,606 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | GCM Grosvenor L.P. | other | Sale | 565,385 @ $47.75 | $27.0M | −53.7% of holding | −12.5% | −26.0% | 487,318 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | GCM Grosvenor Inc. | director | Sale | 565,385 @ $47.75 | $27.0M | −53.7% of holding | −12.5% | −26.0% | 487,318 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | GCM Grosvenor Inc. | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $47.75 | $2.9M | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | −26.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | GCM Grosvenor L.P. | other | Sale | 60,000 @ $47.75 | $2.9M | −100.0% of holding | −12.5% | −26.0% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-23 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 6,640 @ $50.00 | $332K | −0.3% of holding | −10.8% | −32.1% | 1,958,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-22 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 66,560 @ $50.01 | $3.3M | −3.3% of holding | −10.4% | −31.6% | 1,965,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-21 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 4,680 @ $49.16 | $230K | −1.0% of holding | −6.9% | −29.8% | 452,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | Danker Daniel | officer | Sale | 9,745 @ $48.80 | $476K | −2.0% of holding | −9.0% | −30.6% | 470,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | Danker Daniel | officer | Sale | 292 @ $49.54 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | −9.0% | −30.6% | 470,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-14 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 14,233 @ $47.86 | $681K | −0.7% of holding | +3.3% | −24.6% | 2,032,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 3,050 @ $45.21 | $138K | −0.1% of holding | +0.9% | −11.7% | 2,046,238 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 4,680 @ $43.90 | $205K | −1.0% of holding | +8.4% | −11.4% | 456,680 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Danker Daniel | officer | Sale | 10,035 @ $43.44 | $436K | −2.0% of holding | +8.1% | −7.2% | 480,227 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 11,183 @ $43.16 | $483K | −0.5% of holding | +5.7% | −10.1% | 2,049,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A. | director | Sale | 4,225 @ $47.45 | $200K | −16.9% of holding | +0.4% | −22.8% | 20,829 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | Danker Daniel | officer | Sale | 10,035 @ $45.55 | $457K | −2.0% of holding | −5.2% | −24.6% | 490,262 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Fong Morgan | officer | Sale | 4,677 @ $45.00 | $210K | −1.0% of holding | −6.5% | −24.4% | 461,360 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 25,315 @ $44.47 | $1.1M | −1.2% of holding | −5.7% | −29.8% | 2,129,370 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Simo Fidji | director | Sale | 1,118 @ $45.03 | $50K | −0.1% of holding | −5.7% | −29.8% | 2,128,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
72 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fong Morgan | officer | Option exercise | 18,390 | 548,301 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fong Morgan | officer | Option exercise | 18,390 | 73,560 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Rogers Chris | director | Withheld for tax | 43,807 | 924,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Reuter Emily | director | Withheld for tax | 19,188 | 649,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Fong Morgan | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,167 | 529,911 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | BLACKWOOD-KAPRAL LISA | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,103 | 40,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | SC US (TTGP), LTD. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 5,203,747 | 15,007,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | SC US (TTGP), LTD. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 924,221 | 2,184,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | SC US (TTGP), LTD. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 5,203,747 | 15,007,977 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | SC US (TTGP), LTD. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 924,221 | 2,184,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Fong Morgan | officer | Option exercise | 18,390 | 562,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-22 | Fong Morgan | officer | Option exercise | 18,390 | 91,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Dolan Victoria L | director | Award / grant | 6,048 | 26,056 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gupta Ravi | director | Award / grant | 6,048 | 15,006 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Laughton Mary Beth | director | Award / grant | 6,048 | 21,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Silverman Josh | director | Award / grant | 6,048 | 15,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Sarafan Lily | director | Award / grant | 6,048 | 27,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | KOPIT LEVIEN MEREDITH A. | director | Award / grant | 6,048 | 26,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Sundheim Daniel S. | director | Award / grant | 6,048 | 33,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Rogers Chris | director | Withheld for tax | 45,464 | 980,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Reuter Emily | director | Withheld for tax | 26,929 | 693,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Fong Morgan | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,898 | 558,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | BLACKWOOD-KAPRAL LISA | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,103 | 52,868 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Rogers Chris | director | Award / grant | 376,405 | 1,026,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | BLACKWOOD-KAPRAL LISA | officer | Award / grant | 20,851 | 68,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Fong Morgan | officer | Award / grant | 187,366 | 574,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-15 | Reuter Emily | director | Award / grant | 254,283 | 720,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Fong Morgan | officer | Option exercise | 110,340 | 512,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | Fong Morgan | officer | Option exercise | 110,340 | 110,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Rogers Chris | director | Withheld for tax | 45,464 | 649,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Reuter Emily | director | Withheld for tax | 21,549 | 466,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | BLACKWOOD-KAPRAL LISA | officer | Withheld for tax | 19,339 | 56,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Fong Morgan | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,909 | 402,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Fong Morgan | officer | Option exercise | 10,355 | 415,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Fong Morgan | officer | Option exercise | 10,355 | 220,680 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Rogers Chris | director | Withheld for tax | 44,482 | 695,398 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Reuter Emily | director | Withheld for tax | 21,394 | 487,720 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-15 | Fong Morgan | officer | Withheld for tax | 12,755 | 414,768 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Rogers Chris | director | Award / grant | 324,816 | 749,139 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-15 | Simo Fidji | director | Withheld for tax | 67,783 | 1,834,064 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.