Issued 2026-09-16 at $103.61 · now $103.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BLLN has typically landed between $73.19 and $137.27 — a range of −29.4% to +32.5% from the issuance price $103.61.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
194 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-11-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($103.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BLLN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $103.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $103.61 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $104.34 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $90.7–$117.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $73.19–$137.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 194 windows spanning 2025-11-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-11-28 | −34.6% | −35.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-31 | −34.6% | −36.5% | +8.2% |
| 2025-11-26 | −33.9% | −33.9% | +1.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-04 | +36.4% | +0.0% | +46.9% |
| 2026-06-08 | +35.5% | +0.0% | +35.5% |
| 2026-04-29 | +34.3% | −2.2% | +43.7% |
194 overlapping windows · 2025-11-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 7,214 @ $101.44 | $732K | −46.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,333 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 4,465 @ $98.63 | $440K | −17.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,534 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 3,143 @ $101.49 | $319K | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 2,666 @ $98.00 | $261K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 157,168 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 2,666 @ $98.00 | $261K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 159,834 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 2,531 @ $100.58 | $255K | −14.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 2,456 @ $99.57 | $245K | −12.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,078 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 2,010 @ $100.78 | $203K | −39.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,143 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 1,680 @ $98.64 | $166K | −20.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,653 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $99.57 | $149K | −22.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,153 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Tsao David | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $100.00 | $1.0M | −90.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Tsao David | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $97.54 | $975K | −47.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | ten Bosch John Roderick | officer | Sale | 1,416 @ $97.54 | $138K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,051 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 8,285 @ $100.12 | $830K | −44.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,433 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 2,997 @ $100.11 | $300K | −33.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,047 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 2,518 @ $100.20 | $252K | −73.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 932 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 1,944 @ $98.97 | $192K | −9.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,718 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 1,131 @ $100.33 | $113K | −21.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,173 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 775 @ $100.83 | $78K | −7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,658 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 614 @ $99.00 | $61K | −6.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,044 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 576 @ $98.89 | $57K | −14.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,450 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 385 @ $99.22 | $38K | −6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,304 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 358 @ $100.82 | $36K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 232 @ $100.92 | $23K | −24.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 147 @ $101.41 | $15K | −3.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,026 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Sale | 38 @ $96.47 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Tsao David | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $100.00 | $1.0M | −90.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | ten Bosch John Roderick | officer | Sale | 1,417 @ $100.00 | $142K | −5.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,467 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Tsao David | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $92.86 | $929K | −90.9% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | ten Bosch John Roderick | officer | Sale | 1,417 @ $92.86 | $132K | −4.8% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,884 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 15,539 @ $150.03 | $2.3M | −100.0% of holding | −34.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 9,989 @ $137.25 | $1.4M | −39.7% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 6,354 @ $136.42 | $867K | −20.1% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 6,250 @ $137.37 | $859K | −3.7% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 6,250 @ $137.37 | $859K | −3.6% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 3,125 @ $137.25 | $429K | −78.8% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 3,124 @ $137.25 | $429K | −30.6% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 2,431 @ $138.09 | $336K | −16.0% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,767 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 1,983 @ $136.42 | $271K | −33.3% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 1,981 @ $136.42 | $270K | −16.2% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 762 @ $138.09 | $105K | −10.7% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,332 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 760 @ $138.09 | $105K | −90.3% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 82 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 555 @ $133.81 | $74K | −1.7% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,676 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 267 @ $139.21 | $37K | −2.1% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 269 @ $133.01 | $36K | −0.8% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,231 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 173 @ $133.81 | $23K | −1.4% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,243 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 173 @ $133.81 | $23K | −2.8% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 135 @ $135.42 | $18K | −0.4% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,541 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 82 @ $139.21 | $11K | −1.3% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 82 @ $139.20 | $11K | −100.0% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 84 @ $133.01 | $11K | −1.3% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 84 @ $133.00 | $11K | −0.7% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,416 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 44 @ $135.41 | $6K | −0.4% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,199 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Sale | 43 @ $135.41 | $6K | −0.7% of holding | −33.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,950 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Sakakibara Shan Riku | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $140.21 | $561K | −2.0% of holding | −37.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Johnson Nancy JoAnn | officer | Sale | 5,601 @ $128.96 | $722K | −41.8% of holding | −30.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,806 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Johnson Nancy JoAnn | officer | Sale | 5,559 @ $127.89 | $711K | −29.3% of holding | −30.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,407 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Johnson Nancy JoAnn | officer | Sale | 2,133 @ $126.98 | $271K | −10.1% of holding | −30.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,966 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Johnson Nancy JoAnn | officer | Sale | 906 @ $129.78 | $118K | −11.6% of holding | −30.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,900 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-13 | Tsao David | director | Sale | 3,835 @ $125.76 | $482K | −65.4% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
144 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Option exercise | 16,666 | 510,295 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Option exercise | 16,666 | 16,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Option exercise | 8,333 | 24,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Option exercise | 8,333 | 501,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Sakakibara Shan Riku | officer | Gift | 3,500 | 196,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Tsao David | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 570,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Tsao David | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 11,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Tsao David | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 560,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Tsao David | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 21,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Gift | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Option exercise | 3,326 | 20,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Option exercise | 3,326 | 36,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Option exercise | 11,042 | 11,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Option exercise | 11,042 | 68,358 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Option exercise | 3,969 | 15,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Option exercise | 3,969 | 11,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Option exercise | 1,663 | 8,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Lynch Thomas P. | officer | Option exercise | 1,663 | 17,374 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Tsao David | director | Gift | 20,000 | 1,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Atay Oguzhan | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 2,197,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Tsao David | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 2,305,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Tsao David | director | Conversion | 20,000 | 21,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 2,405 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 24,222 | 169,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 38,106 | 38,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 719 | 2,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 271,028 | 1,897,202 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 7,980 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 10,921 | 76,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 2,405 | 2,405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 1,666 | 36,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 129,780 | 908,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 7,980 | 7,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 15,244 | 52,195 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 5,644 | 57,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 5,761 | 35,285 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | KOLLURI KRISHNA KITTU | director | Other acquisition | 38,106 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Tsao David | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 11,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Tsao David | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 580,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.