Issued 2026-09-16 at $1037.24 · now $1037.24 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BLK has typically landed between $913.55 and $1166.50 — a range of −11.9% to +12.5% from the issuance price $1037.24.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1037.24) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BLK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,037 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1,037 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,051 (+1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $996.24–$1,106
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $913.55–$1,166
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −46.7% | −46.7% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-24 | −42.7% | −42.7% | +2.1% |
| 2020-02-21 | −40.8% | −40.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +51.0% | −0.6% | +51.0% |
| 2009-03-06 | +47.6% | −1.6% | +49.3% |
| 2020-03-23 | +46.9% | +0.0% | +46.9% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$554.86
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$685.43
- Analyst target · range $1,145–$1,488$1,320
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$1,037
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Meade Christopher J. | officer | Sale | 15,895 @ $1101.99 | $17.5M | −49.4% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,259 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Meade Christopher J. | officer | Sale | 2,200 @ $1102.80 | $2.4M | −13.5% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,059 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 1,905 @ $1080.57 | $2.1M | −0.8% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 223,831 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 13,834 @ $1050.44 | $14.5M | −5.4% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 240,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 9,715 @ $1049.61 | $10.2M | −3.7% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 254,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 8,225 @ $1051.35 | $8.6M | −3.4% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 232,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 2,126 @ $1052.50 | $2.2M | −0.9% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 230,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | KAPITO ROBERT | director | Sale | 5,364 @ $1056.86 | $5.7M | −2.5% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,373 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | KAPITO ROBERT | director | Sale | 3,188 @ $1056.10 | $3.4M | −1.5% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 215,737 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | KAPITO ROBERT | director | Sale | 187 @ $1057.60 | $198K | −0.1% of holding | −3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 210,186 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kushel J. Richard | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $1083.05 | $2.2M | −3.1% of holding | −4.5% | −2.0% | 61,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Kushel J. Richard | officer | Sale | 385 @ $1084.91 | $418K | −10.3% of holding | −4.5% | −2.0% | 3,335 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Cohen Stephen | officer | Sale | 225 @ $1069.56 | $241K | −3.8% of holding | −4.3% | −1.8% | 5,661 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 2,364 @ $1083.11 | $2.6M | −4.6% of holding | −9.9% | −2.6% | 49,114 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Cohen Stephen | officer | Sale | 2,179 @ $1073.87 | $2.3M | −25.0% of holding | −9.9% | −2.6% | 6,543 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 1,540 @ $1085.82 | $1.7M | −3.2% of holding | −9.9% | −2.6% | 46,185 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 911 @ $1083.96 | $987K | −1.9% of holding | −9.9% | −2.6% | 48,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 478 @ $1085.09 | $519K | −1.0% of holding | −9.9% | −2.6% | 47,725 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 18,046 @ $1088.00 | $19.6M | −22.2% of holding | −10.9% | −4.3% | 63,259 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 8,992 @ $1085.97 | $9.8M | −9.4% of holding | −10.9% | −4.3% | 86,913 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 8,708 @ $1089.00 | $9.5M | −13.8% of holding | −10.9% | −4.3% | 54,551 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 5,924 @ $1085.10 | $6.4M | −5.8% of holding | −10.9% | −4.3% | 95,905 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 5,608 @ $1087.05 | $6.1M | −6.5% of holding | −10.9% | −4.3% | 81,305 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 3,839 @ $1084.06 | $4.2M | −3.6% of holding | −10.9% | −4.3% | 101,829 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 1,740 @ $1091.34 | $1.9M | −3.3% of holding | −10.9% | −4.3% | 51,596 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 1,215 @ $1089.93 | $1.3M | −2.2% of holding | −10.9% | −4.3% | 53,336 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Sale | 118 @ $1092.00 | $129K | −0.2% of holding | −10.9% | −4.3% | 51,478 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Kushel J. Richard | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $1125.00 | $22.5M | −24.4% of holding | −3.6% | −15.3% | 61,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Small Martin | officer | Sale | 12,891 @ $1170.27 | $15.1M | −34.3% of holding | −5.3% | −18.5% | 24,713 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Small Martin | officer | Sale | 8,139 @ $1171.52 | $9.5M | −32.9% of holding | −5.3% | −18.5% | 16,574 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Small Martin | officer | Sale | 5,514 @ $1172.37 | $6.5M | −33.3% of holding | −5.3% | −18.5% | 11,060 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Small Martin | officer | Sale | 503 @ $1173.80 | $590K | −4.5% of holding | −5.3% | −18.5% | 10,557 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Small Martin | officer | Sale | 1,258 @ $1043.38 | $1.3M | −16.8% of holding | +2.9% | −15.2% | 6,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 1,987 @ $1168.68 | $2.3M | −19.3% of holding | −10.5% | −14.0% | 8,301 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 1,865 @ $1163.93 | $2.2M | −12.1% of holding | −10.5% | −14.0% | 13,518 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $1160.22 | $2.0M | −8.9% of holding | −10.5% | −14.0% | 17,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 1,522 @ $1163.09 | $1.8M | −9.0% of holding | −10.5% | −14.0% | 15,383 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 1,278 @ $1164.98 | $1.5M | −9.5% of holding | −10.5% | −14.0% | 12,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 1,096 @ $1169.91 | $1.3M | −13.2% of holding | −10.5% | −14.0% | 7,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 1,028 @ $1166.27 | $1.2M | −8.4% of holding | −10.5% | −14.0% | 11,212 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 924 @ $1166.98 | $1.1M | −8.2% of holding | −10.5% | −14.0% | 10,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 600 @ $1161.24 | $697K | −3.4% of holding | −10.5% | −14.0% | 16,905 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Kushel J. Richard | officer | Sale | 11,549 @ $1120.69 | $12.9M | −15.8% of holding | −0.9% | −7.9% | 61,369 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Kushel J. Richard | officer | Sale | 5,593 @ $1120.09 | $6.3M | −7.1% of holding | −0.9% | −7.9% | 72,918 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 6,437 @ $1123.35 | $7.2M | −17.3% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 30,804 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 4,041 @ $1127.55 | $4.6M | −16.2% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 20,980 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 2,476 @ $1124.56 | $2.8M | −8.0% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 28,328 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 2,407 @ $1126.82 | $2.7M | −8.8% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 25,021 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 2,251 @ $1122.61 | $2.5M | −0.9% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 259,609 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 2,020 @ $1129.11 | $2.3M | −0.8% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 252,055 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 1,562 @ $1126.98 | $1.8M | −0.6% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 255,375 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 1,404 @ $1124.88 | $1.6M | −0.5% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 257,852 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $1127.91 | $1.5M | −0.5% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 254,075 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 1,133 @ $1121.81 | $1.3M | −0.4% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 261,860 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 946 @ $1128.71 | $1.1M | −4.5% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 20,034 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 915 @ $1125.69 | $1.0M | −0.4% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 256,937 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 900 @ $1125.53 | $1.0M | −3.2% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 27,428 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | Lord Rachel | officer | Sale | 829 @ $1129.61 | $936K | −4.1% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 19,205 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 758 @ $1120.95 | $850K | −0.3% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 262,993 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-25 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Sale | 358 @ $1130.24 | $405K | −0.1% of holding | +0.4% | −8.6% | 251,697 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
203 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Gift | 7,852 | 215,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Meade Christopher J. | officer | Option exercise | 18,095 | 32,154 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | Meade Christopher J. | officer | Option exercise | 18,095 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Murphy Kathleen | director | Award / grant | 41 | 774 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Nixon Gordon M. | director | Award / grant | 37 | 5,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | PECK KRISTIN C | director | Award / grant | 34 | 2,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Robbins Charles | director | Award / grant | 30 | 3,121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Vestberg Hans Erik | director | Award / grant | 36 | 2,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Nasser Amin H. | director | Award / grant | 30 | 1,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Daley Pamela | director | Award / grant | 30 | 6,503 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | FORD WILLIAM E | director | Award / grant | 37 | 16,709 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Freda Fabrizio | director | Award / grant | 21 | 3,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Johnson Margaret L | director | Award / grant | 36 | 2,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | LEMKAU GREGG | director | Award / grant | 30 | 284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | FINK LAURENCE | director | Gift | 4,780 | 225,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Daley Pamela | director | Award / grant | 40 | 6,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Freda Fabrizio | director | Award / grant | 21 | 3,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Johnson Margaret L | director | Award / grant | 37 | 1,998 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | LEMKAU GREGG | director | Award / grant | 29 | 254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Murphy Kathleen | director | Award / grant | 40 | 733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Nasser Amin H. | director | Award / grant | 30 | 1,088 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | FORD WILLIAM E | director | Award / grant | 38 | 16,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Nixon Gordon M. | director | Award / grant | 38 | 5,561 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | PECK KRISTIN C | director | Award / grant | 34 | 2,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Robbins Charles | director | Award / grant | 30 | 3,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Vestberg Hans Erik | director | Award / grant | 36 | 2,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-19 | Cohen Stephen | officer | Gift | 657 | 5,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Gift | 8,634 | 37,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Gift | 8,634 | 8,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Option exercise | 54,190 | 105,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Option exercise | 54,190 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Johnson Margaret L | director | Gift | 419 | 1,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Johnson Margaret L | director | Gift | 419 | 2,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Cohen Stephen | officer | Award / grant | 3,771 | 8,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Comerchero Marc D. | officer | Award / grant | 549 | 7,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Meade Christopher J. | officer | Award / grant | 5,175 | 14,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Small Martin | officer | Award / grant | 5,292 | 12,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Goldstein Robert L. | officer | Award / grant | 9,173 | 51,478 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kushel J. Richard | officer | Award / grant | 6,272 | 63,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Lord Rachel | officer | Award / grant | 6,308 | 13,065 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | sale | 2026-07-09 | 2026-06-12 | $1–15K |
| John Mcguire | House | sale | 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $15–50K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $15–50K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2026-03-04 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
| Richard Dean Dr Mccormick | House | purchase | 2025-12-09 | 2025-11-05 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.