Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.64 · now $3.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BCYC has typically landed between $2.75 and $4.56 — a range of −24.3% to +25.3% from the issuance price $3.64.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,818 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BCYC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.64 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.48 (-4.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.12–$3.83
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.75–$4.56
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,818 windows spanning 2019-05-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-08 | −62.2% | −62.2% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-07 | −51.9% | −51.9% | +24.5% |
| 2022-04-06 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +12.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2019-08-28 | +70.8% | +0.0% | +78.2% |
| 2019-08-27 | +67.8% | −3.0% | +72.8% |
| 2022-06-14 | +60.8% | −0.8% | +68.4% |
1,818 overlapping windows · 2019-05-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
29%
+3.0%
n=7
Feb
29%
+1.1%
n=7
Mar
29%
−4.7%
n=7
Apr
43%
−8.5%
n=7
May
29%
+2.0%
n=7
Jun
38%
−5.7%
n=8
Jul
63%
+7.1%
n=8
Aug
50%
−0.2%
n=8
Sep
63%
+7.0%
n=8
Oct
57%
−0.7%
n=7
Nov
43%
+0.4%
n=7
Dec
57%
−0.6%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 1,737 @ $4.31 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 603,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 532 @ $4.31 | $2K | −0.3% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Perry Jennifer Scott | officer | Sale | 333 @ $4.34 | $1K | −0.4% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 255 @ $4.31 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,375 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 104 @ $4.31 | $448 | −0.2% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Perry Jennifer Scott | officer | Sale | 43 @ $4.31 | $185 | −0.0% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 5,905 @ $4.27 | $25K | −1.0% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 605,408 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 1,859 @ $4.27 | $8K | −1.2% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,703 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 1,506 @ $4.27 | $6K | −1.6% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,630 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Perry Jennifer Scott | officer | Sale | 1,036 @ $4.27 | $4K | −1.1% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,428 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 819 @ $4.27 | $3K | −1.3% of holding | −12.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,545 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 1,716 @ $5.05 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 611,313 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 525 @ $5.05 | $3K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 159,562 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | Perry Jennifer Scott | officer | Sale | 333 @ $5.04 | $2K | −0.4% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,464 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 251 @ $5.05 | $1K | −0.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,136 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 102 @ $5.05 | $515 | −0.2% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,364 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | Perry Jennifer Scott | officer | Sale | 37 @ $5.05 | $187 | −0.0% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,797 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-02 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 5,967 @ $4.91 | $29K | −1.0% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 613,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 1,879 @ $4.91 | $9K | −1.2% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,087 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 1,521 @ $4.91 | $7K | −1.6% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,387 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Perry Jennifer Scott | officer | Sale | 1,038 @ $4.91 | $5K | −1.1% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,834 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 799 @ $4.91 | $4K | −1.2% of holding | −11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,466 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 10,989 @ $6.46 | $71K | −1.7% of holding | −13.2% | −44.2% | 618,996 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Milnes Alistair | director | Sale | 3,416 @ $6.46 | $22K | −2.4% of holding | −13.2% | −44.2% | 136,717 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 3,266 @ $6.46 | $21K | −2.0% of holding | −13.2% | −44.2% | 161,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Young Alethia | director | Sale | 2,456 @ $6.45 | $16K | −2.7% of holding | −13.2% | −44.2% | 88,959 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 2,367 @ $6.45 | $15K | −2.4% of holding | −13.2% | −44.2% | 97,908 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Young Alethia | director | Sale | 1,878 @ $6.54 | $12K | −2.1% of holding | −13.2% | −44.2% | 87,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 1,115 @ $6.45 | $7K | −1.7% of holding | −13.2% | −44.2% | 66,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 10,325 @ $6.80 | $70K | −1.6% of holding | −11.1% | −44.5% | 629,985 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Young Alethia | director | Sale | 3,289 @ $6.80 | $22K | −3.5% of holding | −11.1% | −44.5% | 91,415 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Milnes Alistair | director | Sale | 3,244 @ $6.80 | $22K | −2.3% of holding | −11.1% | −44.5% | 140,133 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 3,045 @ $6.80 | $21K | −1.8% of holding | −11.1% | −44.5% | 165,232 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 2,827 @ $6.80 | $19K | −2.7% of holding | −11.1% | −44.5% | 100,275 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 1,317 @ $6.80 | $9K | −1.9% of holding | −11.1% | −44.5% | 67,380 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 3,231 @ $8.41 | $27K | −0.7% of holding | −15.4% | −40.5% | 475,310 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 978 @ $8.41 | $8K | −0.8% of holding | −15.4% | −40.5% | 118,277 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Milnes Alistair | director | Sale | 978 @ $8.41 | $8K | −1.0% of holding | −15.4% | −40.5% | 93,377 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 250 @ $8.41 | $2K | −0.5% of holding | −15.4% | −40.5% | 53,102 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 103 @ $8.41 | $866 | −0.3% of holding | −15.4% | −40.5% | 31,197 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 2,263 @ $8.40 | $19K | −0.5% of holding | −7.3% | −41.7% | 478,541 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Milnes Alistair | director | Sale | 1,147 @ $8.40 | $10K | −1.2% of holding | −7.3% | −41.7% | 94,355 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 824 @ $8.40 | $7K | −0.7% of holding | −7.3% | −41.7% | 119,255 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 473 @ $8.40 | $4K | −0.9% of holding | −7.3% | −41.7% | 53,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Young Alethia | director | Sale | 265 @ $8.61 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | −7.3% | −41.7% | 44,704 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 221 @ $8.40 | $2K | −0.7% of holding | −7.3% | −41.7% | 31,300 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Young Alethia | director | Sale | 217 @ $8.40 | $2K | −0.5% of holding | −7.3% | −41.7% | 44,969 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Swanton Robert Charles | director | Sale | 102 @ $8.55 | $872 | −0.7% of holding | −7.3% | −41.7% | 15,487 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 3,193 @ $7.44 | $24K | −0.7% of holding | +7.4% | −20.0% | 480,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 966 @ $7.44 | $7K | −0.8% of holding | +7.4% | −20.0% | 120,079 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Milnes Alistair | director | Sale | 966 @ $7.44 | $7K | −1.0% of holding | +7.4% | −20.0% | 95,502 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 248 @ $7.44 | $2K | −0.5% of holding | +7.4% | −20.0% | 53,825 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-03 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 100 @ $7.44 | $744 | −0.3% of holding | +7.4% | −20.0% | 31,521 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 2,268 @ $7.09 | $16K | −0.5% of holding | +7.2% | −15.4% | 483,997 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Milnes Alistair | director | Sale | 1,149 @ $7.09 | $8K | −1.2% of holding | +7.2% | −15.4% | 96,468 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Skynner Michael | officer | Sale | 825 @ $7.09 | $6K | −0.7% of holding | +7.2% | −15.4% | 121,045 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Sale | 474 @ $7.09 | $3K | −0.9% of holding | +7.2% | −15.4% | 54,073 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Sale | 206 @ $7.09 | $1K | −0.6% of holding | +7.2% | −15.4% | 31,621 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Young Alethia | director | Sale | 204 @ $7.09 | $1K | −0.4% of holding | +7.2% | −15.4% | 45,186 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Lee Kevin | director | Sale | 3,432 @ $7.48 | $26K | −0.7% of holding | +16.9% | −12.8% | 486,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
76 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Perry Jennifer Scott | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Skynner Michael | officer | Award / grant | 60,000 | 60,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Award / grant | 58,000 | 58,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lee Kevin | director | Award / grant | 330,000 | 330,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 937,483 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 10,018,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP | director | Award / grant | 38,000 | 38,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Riva Alessandro | director | Award / grant | 7,380 | 19,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Riva Alessandro | director | Award / grant | 14,761 | 14,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Winter Gregory Paul | director | Award / grant | 9,500 | 196,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Winter Gregory Paul | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Young Alethia | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 94,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Young Alethia | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Swanton Robert Charles | director | Award / grant | 3,726 | 19,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Swanton Robert Charles | director | Award / grant | 7,453 | 7,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Gutierrez-Ramos Jose-Carlos | director | Award / grant | 9,500 | 32,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Gutierrez-Ramos Jose-Carlos | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 103,102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Hannay Michael Charles Ferguson | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Bourque Janice | director | Award / grant | 9,500 | 32,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Bourque Janice | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lee Kevin | director | Award / grant | 165,000 | 640,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Milnes Alistair | director | Award / grant | 50,000 | 143,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Milnes Alistair | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Hoppenot Herve | director | Award / grant | 3,032 | 15,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Hoppenot Herve | director | Award / grant | 6,065 | 6,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Sands Stephen H. | director | Award / grant | 19,000 | 19,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Sands Stephen H. | director | Award / grant | 9,500 | 26,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 68,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Thompson Travis Alvin | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Skynner Michael | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 168,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Skynner Michael | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | DANSEY ROGER D | director | Award / grant | 3,032 | 15,532 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | DANSEY ROGER D | director | Award / grant | 6,065 | 6,065 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Hoppenot Herve | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | Hoppenot Herve | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | DANSEY ROGER D | director | Award / grant | 12,500 | 12,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-08 | DANSEY ROGER D | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.