BBAIBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.Technology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.73 · now $2.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BBAI has typically landed between $1.71 and $5.04 — a range of −37.2% to +84.6% from the issuance price $2.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,347 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where BBAI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.71worst · -37.2%$5.04best · +84.6%
  • now $2.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.64 (-3.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.16–$3.13
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.71–$5.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,347 windows spanning 2021-04-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-02-14−67.1%−67.1%+0.0%
2025-02-13−64.3%−67.9%+0.0%
2025-02-12−63.8%−67.8%+0.4%
3 best
2023-01-03+737.0%+0.0%+737.0%
2022-12-30+670.0%+0.0%+670.0%
2023-01-05+615.8%+0.0%+703.9%

1,347 overlapping windows · 2021-04-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
20%
+68.0%
n=5
Feb
60%
+22.1%
n=5
Mar
20%
−13.8%
n=5
Apr
80%
+10.7%
n=5
May
33%
−5.3%
n=6
Jun
67%
+2.3%
n=6
Jul
0%
−12.8%
n=6
Aug
50%
−9.9%
n=6
Sep
33%
+0.2%
n=6
Oct
60%
−2.8%
n=5
Nov
60%
+8.3%
n=5
Dec
40%
+6.3%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$9$32026-05-22: 1 insider sale, $43K — Ricker Sean Raymond2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $62K — HAYES DOROTHY D2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $320K — Braden Pamela Joyce2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $68K — HAYES DOROTHY D2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $35K — Ricker Sean Raymond2025-11-18: 1 insider sale, $134K — HAYES DOROTHY D2025-08-27: 1 insider sale, $64K — Ricker Sean Raymond2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $11 — Ricker Sean Raymond2025-08-14: 1 insider sale, $175K — HAYES DOROTHY D2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $239K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $134K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $35K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $388K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $105K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Ricker Sean Raymond — Sale on 2026-05-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector HAYES DOROTHY D — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed same daydirector Braden Pamela Joyce — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed same daydirector HAYES DOROTHY D — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed same dayofficer Ricker Sean Raymond — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector HAYES DOROTHY D — Sale on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ricker Sean Raymond — Sale on 2025-08-27, filed same dayofficer Ricker Sean Raymond — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HAYES DOROTHY D — Sale on 2025-08-14, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-22Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale10,000 @ $4.33$43K−1.6% of holding−14.4%not yet — horizon still open609,256Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08HAYES DOROTHY DdirectorSale15,000 @ $4.11$62K−6.8% of holding−4.5%not yet — horizon still open204,150Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16Braden Pamela JoycedirectorSale80,000 @ $4.00$320K−13.6% of holding−9.0%−42.4%508,687Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06HAYES DOROTHY DdirectorSale17,000 @ $3.98$68K−7.2% of holding−17.1%−46.4%219,150Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-04Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale5,000 @ $7.06$35K−1.0% of holding−10.1%−47.2%488,716Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-18HAYES DOROTHY DdirectorSale22,000 @ $6.08$134K−8.5% of holding−8.3%−42.9%236,150Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale11,978 @ $5.35$64K−3.9% of holding+28.6%−29.5%296,345Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-26Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale2 @ $5.40$11−0.0% of holding+31.2%−29.9%308,323Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-14HAYES DOROTHY DdirectorSale30,000 @ $5.83$175K−10.4% of holding−15.3%−36.4%258,150Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-27Peffer JuliedirectorSale38,348 @ $4.40$169K−5.7% of holding+25.4%+25.9%634,153Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Peffer JuliedirectorSale11,652 @ $4.42$52K−1.7% of holding+25.4%+25.9%672,501Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15HAYES DOROTHY DdirectorSale26,000 @ $3.60$94K−9.2% of holding+11.7%+59.7%255,239Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Peffer JuliedirectorSale25,924 @ $3.35$87K−3.7% of holding+4.7%+53.2%684,153Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13Peffer JuliedirectorSale20,000 @ $3.65$73K−2.7% of holding+4.7%+53.2%710,077Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-08Peffer JuliedirectorSale20,000 @ $3.25$65K−2.7% of holding+13.9%+54.8%730,077Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale14,063 @ $3.05$43K−4.9% of holding+19.5%+79.5%270,061Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-06Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale9,515 @ $3.12$30K−3.2% of holding+15.9%+63.9%284,124Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-05Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale10,000 @ $3.33$33K−3.3% of holding+27.0%+74.3%293,639Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-08PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale27,430,402 @ $2.86$78.5M−99.3% of holding+8.4%+137.7%197,614Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-02Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale27,757 @ $2.89$80K−13.5% of holding+7.0%+113.0%178,355Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-01Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale2,066 @ $2.90$6K−0.9% of holding+13.7%+116.8%219,971Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-26PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale5,150 @ $3.51$18K−0.0% of holding+13.8%+107.4%27,628,016Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-25Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale36,166 @ $3.65$132K−14.0% of holding−12.1%+100.7%223,070Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale2,314,872 @ $3.56$8.2M−7.7% of holding−21.4%+53.1%27,633,166Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-14PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale5,216,361 @ $3.49$18.2M−14.8% of holding−21.9%+26.1%29,948,038Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale1,707,837 @ $3.28$5.6M−4.6% of holding−11.2%+34.8%35,164,399Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale3,629,108 @ $3.33$12.1M−9.0% of holding−7.3%+30.6%36,850,298Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12HAYES DOROTHY DdirectorSale16,000 @ $3.29$53K−5.4% of holding−7.3%+30.6%281,239Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-10PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale3,137,293 @ $3.36$10.5M−7.2% of holding−4.1%+36.2%40,479,406Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-07PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale2,660,841 @ $3.35$8.9M−5.7% of holding−0.1%+32.5%43,616,699Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-06PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale4,149,559 @ $4.31$17.9M−8.2% of holding−20.6%+4.9%46,277,540Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale4,089,824 @ $4.61$18.9M−7.5% of holding−29.0%−9.3%50,427,099Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale4,624,979 @ $4.65$21.5M−7.8% of holding−31.7%−8.2%54,516,923Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorSale5,015,919 @ $5.12$25.7M−7.8% of holding−34.4%−4.9%59,141,902Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-06Long AmandadirectorSale66,140 @ $4.50$298K−2.6% of holding+55.6%+59.8%2,445,449Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-03Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale2,067 @ $4.03$8K−0.8% of holding+54.9%+56.6%247,903Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-02BATTLE SEAN BERNARDdirectorSale44,813 @ $4.46$200K−24.5% of holding+16.5%+77.9%137,838Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade
2024-12-26BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale6,075,697 @ $4.15$25.2M−8.7% of holding−18.3%+46.1%64,157,821Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-26Long AmandadirectorSale200,000 @ $4.25$850K−7.2% of holding−18.3%+46.1%2,583,254Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-19BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale153,250 @ $3.63$556K−0.2% of holding+45.3%+66.0%70,233,518Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-18BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale2,860,843 @ $3.59$10.3M−3.9% of holding+38.1%+62.6%70,386,768Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-17BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale2,574,535 @ $3.11$8.0M−3.4% of holding+29.6%+22.7%73,247,611Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale5,313,090 @ $2.89$15.4M−6.5% of holding+32.3%+34.9%75,822,146Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-13BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale2,851,290 @ $2.52$7.2M−3.4% of holding+66.4%+57.6%81,135,236Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-12BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale3,763,502 @ $2.69$10.1M−4.3% of holding+29.0%+52.7%83,986,526Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale3,248,938 @ $2.94$9.6M−3.6% of holding+10.5%+39.1%87,750,028Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-11Ricker Sean RaymondofficerSale17,629 @ $2.87$51K−6.6% of holding+10.5%+39.1%251,003Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-10BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale4,146,835 @ $3.27$13.6M−4.4% of holding−1.0%+19.9%90,998,966Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-09BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale9,003,424 @ $3.93$35.4M−8.6% of holding−7.8%+4.2%95,145,801Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09Long AmandadirectorSale200,000 @ $4.25$850K−6.7% of holding−7.8%+4.2%2,783,254Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-06BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale6,328,238 @ $3.39$21.5M−5.7% of holding+0.9%+10.8%104,149,225Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-05BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale4,775,664 @ $2.96$14.1M−4.1% of holding+41.1%+31.8%110,477,463Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-04BBAI Ultimate Holdings, LLCdirectorSale3,528,158 @ $2.68$9.5M−3.0% of holding+66.4%+50.1%115,253,127Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

85 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Gainey Sean AlexanderdirectorAward / grant32,77632,776Form 4
2026-06-30McAleenan KevindirectorWithheld for tax23,5621,428,508Form 4
2026-06-30Ricker Sean RaymondofficerWithheld for tax10,069592,893Form 4
2026-06-30Blankenship CarolynofficerWithheld for tax9,019771,526Form 4
2026-06-14FULCHINO PAUL EdirectorAward / grant36,070440,830Form 4
2026-06-14Cannito Peter Anthony JrdirectorAward / grant36,070479,168Form 4
2026-06-14Evangelista AnthonydirectorAward / grant36,07051,162Form 4
2026-06-14Braden Pamela JoycedirectorAward / grant36,070544,757Form 4
2026-06-14PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, LLCdirectorAward / grant36,070299,506Form 4
2026-06-14BATTLE SEAN BERNARDdirectorAward / grant36,070206,819Form 4
2026-06-14HAYES DOROTHY DdirectorAward / grant36,070240,220Form 4
2026-06-06Ricker Sean RaymondofficerWithheld for tax9,759602,962Form 4
2026-04-01McAleenan KevindirectorWithheld for tax39,4241,452,070Form 4
2026-04-01Blankenship CarolynofficerWithheld for tax13,649777,993Form 4
2026-04-01Ricker Sean RaymondofficerWithheld for tax10,665619,256Form 4
2026-03-31McAleenan KevindirectorWithheld for tax22,3921,491,494Form 4
2026-03-31Blankenship CarolynofficerWithheld for tax5,606791,642Form 4
2026-03-31Ricker Sean RaymondofficerWithheld for tax4,324629,921Form 4
2026-03-26Ricker Sean RaymondofficerAward / grant122,107634,245Form 4
2026-03-26McAleenan KevindirectorAward / grant290,7301,513,886Form 4
2026-03-26Blankenship CarolynofficerAward / grant125,923797,248Form 4
2026-03-02McAleenan KevindirectorWithheld for tax46,4491,223,156Form 4
2026-03-02Ricker Sean RaymondofficerWithheld for tax18,725512,138Form 4
2026-03-02Blankenship CarolynofficerWithheld for tax15,075671,325Form 4
2026-03-02Ricker Sean RaymondofficerAward / grant49,999530,863Form 4
2026-03-02Blankenship CarolynofficerAward / grant36,143686,400Form 4
2026-03-02McAleenan KevindirectorAward / grant104,3111,269,605Form 4
2026-01-15McAleenan KevindirectorWithheld for tax48,6911,165,294Form 4
2025-12-31Ricker Sean RaymondofficerWithheld for tax6,625480,864Form 4
2025-12-31Blankenship CarolynofficerWithheld for tax5,945650,257Form 4
2025-12-31McAleenan KevindirectorWithheld for tax4,6631,213,985Form 4
2025-12-19FULCHINO PAUL EdirectorAward / grant18,650404,760Form 4
2025-12-07Ricker Sean RaymondofficerWithheld for tax1,227487,489Form 4
2025-10-14Ricker Sean RaymondofficerAward / grant200,000489,720Form 4
2025-09-30Ricker Sean RaymondofficerWithheld for tax6,625289,720Form 4
2025-09-30Blankenship CarolynofficerWithheld for tax5,945652,980Form 4
2025-09-30McAleenan KevindirectorWithheld for tax3,1321,218,648Form 4
2025-08-12Evangelista AnthonydirectorAward / grant15,09215,092Form 4
2025-06-30Ricker Sean RaymondofficerWithheld for tax6,524308,325Form 4
2025-06-30Blankenship CarolynofficerWithheld for tax5,945658,925Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.