Issued 2026-09-16 at $107.27 · now $107.27 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, BABA has typically landed between $85.29 and $135.79 — a range of −20.5% to +26.6% from the issuance price $107.27.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,994 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-09-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($107.27) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where BABA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $107.27 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $107.27 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $105.85 (-1.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $97.22–$114.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $85.29–$135.79
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-10 | −37.3% | −37.3% | +1.8% |
| 2022-02-11 | −37.2% | −37.2% | +3.3% |
| 2021-11-03 | −32.7% | −32.7% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-01-22 | +66.4% | −0.3% | +66.4% |
| 2025-01-21 | +59.3% | +0.0% | +59.3% |
| 2025-01-27 | +54.5% | +0.0% | +59.7% |
2,994 overlapping windows · 2014-09-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Tsai Joseph C | director | Purchase | 720,000 @ $14.47 | $10.4M | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,979,168 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Tsai Joseph C | director | Purchase | 720,000 @ $14.29 | $10.3M | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,259,168 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-24 | Wu Yongming | director | Purchase | 350,000 @ $14.24 | $5.0M | +34.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,364,418 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | EVANS J. MICHAEL | director | Sale | 692,992 @ $94.92 | $65.8M | −92.6% of holding | +22.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 55,008 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | EVANS J. MICHAEL | director | Sale | 27,008 @ $95.59 | $2.6M | −49.1% of holding | +22.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Xu Hong | officer | Sale | 175,054 @ $12.15 | $2.1M | −38.4% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 280,496 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (FJ) | officer | Sale | 13,579 @ $12.10 | $164K | −2.4% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 556,617 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Yu Siying | officer | Sale | 6,772 @ $12.10 | $82K | −1.1% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 607,234 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fang | officer | Sale | 4,898 @ $12.09 | $59K | −0.1% of holding | +20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,559,511 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Xu Hong | officer | Sale | 54,450 @ $16.07 | $875K | −45.0% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Yu Siying | officer | Sale | 21,472 @ $16.06 | $345K | −3.5% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 600,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Jiang Fang | officer | Sale | 16,848 @ $16.10 | $271K | −0.3% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,554,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
137 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 320,000 | 640,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 320,000 | 1,684,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 320,000 | 1,684,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 320,000 | 1,684,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 320,000 | 1,684,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 28,000 | 420,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tsai Joseph C | director | Option exercise | 3,333 | 63,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tsai Joseph C | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 112,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 13,333 | 253,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 28,000 | 1,014,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 13,333 | 986,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tsai Joseph C | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 825,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tsai Joseph C | director | Option exercise | 3,333 | 817,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 13,333 | 986,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tsai Joseph C | director | Option exercise | 7,500 | 825,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tsai Joseph C | director | Option exercise | 3,333 | 817,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Wu Yongming | director | Option exercise | 28,000 | 1,014,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Yu Siying | officer | Option exercise | 2,666 | 50,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fang | officer | Option exercise | 1,672 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fang | officer | Option exercise | 1,667 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fang | officer | Option exercise | 2,667 | 50,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fang | officer | Option exercise | 3,750 | 56,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Yu Siying | officer | Option exercise | 3,336 | 50,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Yu Siying | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 112,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Xu Hong | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Xu Hong | officer | Option exercise | 360,000 | 864,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Xu Hong | officer | Option exercise | 9,000 | 99,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Xu Hong | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 150,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (FJ) | officer | Option exercise | 7,336 | 110,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (FJ) | officer | Option exercise | 7,333 | 139,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (FJ) | officer | Option exercise | 15,500 | 232,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (FJ) | officer | Option exercise | 7,336 | 547,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (FJ) | officer | Option exercise | 15,500 | 570,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Xu Hong | officer | Option exercise | 360,000 | 436,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fang | officer | Option exercise | 2,667 | 5,560,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fang | officer | Option exercise | 1,667 | 5,557,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fang | officer | Option exercise | 1,672 | 5,556,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (FJ) | officer | Option exercise | 7,336 | 547,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (FJ) | officer | Option exercise | 7,333 | 554,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Jiang Fan (FJ) | officer | Option exercise | 15,500 | 570,196 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.