Issued 2026-09-25 at $195.09 · now $195.09 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, AXSM has typically landed between $157.04 and $256.63 — a range of −19.5% to +31.5% from the issuance price $195.09.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,704 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-11-19 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($195.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AXSM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $195.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $195.09 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $198.69 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $179.5–$217.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $157.04–$256.63
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,704 windows spanning 2015-11-19 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-07-21 | −65.1% | −65.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-07-12 | −63.5% | −63.5% | +0.0% |
| 2021-07-20 | −63.3% | −63.3% | +3.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2018-12-27 | +316.5% | +0.0% | +344.0% |
| 2018-12-26 | +297.6% | −2.4% | +333.2% |
| 2018-12-21 | +290.9% | −9.1% | +303.6% |
2,704 overlapping windows · 2015-11-19 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Elucidating TAAR-1, Dopamine, and Norepinephrine in Binge Eating Disorder Using Solriamfetol (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Studying Solriamfetol Modulation of TAAR-1, Dopamine, and Norepinephrine in Shift Work Disorder (SUSTAIN) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Solriamfetol in Subjects With Binge Eating Disorder (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Fibromyalgia Response With Esreboxetine Evaluated Using a Randomized Withdrawal Research Design (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Open-Label Safety Study of AXS-14 in Subjects With Fibromyalgia (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-06-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Solriamfetol in Adolescents With ADHD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-06-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Solriamfetol in Children With ADHD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Clinical Assessment of Response in the Treatment of Depression With Daytime Sleepiness Using Solriamfetol (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
36%
+7.4%
n=11
Feb
18%
−3.7%
n=11
Mar
36%
+5.6%
n=11
Apr
73%
+15.8%
n=11
May
36%
−3.6%
n=11
Jun
64%
+11.7%
n=11
Jul
45%
−3.7%
n=11
Aug
55%
+4.0%
n=11
Sep
45%
−1.9%
n=11
Oct
50%
+1.2%
n=10
Nov
70%
+15.4%
n=10
Dec
73%
+19.0%
n=11
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $208.65 | $2.1M | −100.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 4,660 @ $213.95 | $997K | −39.2% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 45,004 @ $212.01 | $9.5M | −86.2% of holding | −2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 49,666 @ $240.25 | $11.9M | −87.3% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-11 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 286 @ $249.12 | $71K | −0.5% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,367 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | Coleman Mark | director | Sale | 643 @ $249.00 | $160K | −2.1% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,389 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | Mahony Susan | director | Sale | 300 @ $246.18 | $74K | −26.6% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 829 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 286 @ $246.18 | $70K | −0.5% of holding | −10.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 58,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 49,670 @ $241.01 | $12.0M | −87.3% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Pizzie Nick | officer | Sale | 33,000 @ $240.09 | $7.9M | −43.5% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,867 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Mahony Susan | director | Sale | 300 @ $237.21 | $71K | −21.0% of holding | −7.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,129 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Coleman Mark | director | Sale | 5,537 @ $223.39 | $1.2M | −15.8% of holding | +11.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,603 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Coleman Mark | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $230.30 | $1.4M | −14.6% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 35,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Coleman Mark | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $233.46 | $1.4M | −12.7% of holding | +5.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,140 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Sale | 233 @ $228.18 | $53K | −100.0% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Sale | 4,517 @ $227.94 | $1.0M | −100.0% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-22 | Maizel Ari | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $182.42 | $1.4M | −100.0% of holding | +20.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Sale | 35,378 @ $161.88 | $5.7M | −100.0% of holding | +3.6% | +13.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Coleman Mark | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $161.11 | $4.0M | −34.7% of holding | +3.6% | +13.9% | 47,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 32,410 @ $185.60 | $6.0M | −81.8% of holding | −10.2% | +2.6% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | Pizzie Nick | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $187.92 | $2.3M | −22.0% of holding | −5.6% | +21.1% | 42,588 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Maizel Ari | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $184.44 | $1.4M | −100.0% of holding | −3.4% | +19.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 31,261 @ $170.38 | $5.3M | −81.2% of holding | +6.8% | +26.9% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 29,450 @ $172.33 | $5.1M | −80.3% of holding | +7.3% | +35.6% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 78,703 @ $171.28 | $13.5M | −91.6% of holding | +8.4% | +34.2% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Saad Mark E | director | Sale | 31,346 @ $165.18 | $5.2M | −75.8% of holding | −0.2% | +22.1% | 10,002 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Saad Mark E | director | Sale | 6,231 @ $165.18 | $1.0M | −38.4% of holding | −0.2% | +22.1% | 10,002 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 10,558 @ $148.18 | $1.6M | −59.4% of holding | +14.7% | +50.2% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 20,163 @ $146.94 | $3.0M | −73.6% of holding | +15.2% | +48.7% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 49,252 @ $144.59 | $7.1M | −87.2% of holding | +25.2% | +51.2% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 21,775 @ $134.49 | $2.9M | −75.1% of holding | +8.8% | +50.7% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-04 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 50,459 @ $133.79 | $6.8M | −87.5% of holding | +8.4% | +54.2% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 91,705 @ $132.34 | $12.1M | −92.7% of holding | +8.8% | +56.0% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 12,774 @ $118.84 | $1.5M | −63.9% of holding | +17.9% | +48.5% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-07 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 13,390 @ $118.77 | $1.6M | −64.9% of holding | +13.1% | +48.6% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 19,220 @ $120.17 | $2.3M | −72.7% of holding | +12.0% | +43.2% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $115.96 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | +11.2% | +36.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Sale | 40,000 @ $114.23 | $4.6M | −100.0% of holding | +12.5% | +37.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 19,719 @ $114.19 | $2.3M | −73.2% of holding | +12.5% | +37.6% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-16 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Sale | 5,783 @ $116.19 | $672K | −100.0% of holding | +12.5% | +37.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 15,254 @ $117.37 | $1.8M | −67.8% of holding | +5.3% | +35.9% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Sale | 27,907 @ $118.96 | $3.3M | −79.4% of holding | +1.2% | +31.3% | 7,229 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Coleman Mark | director | Purchase | 800 @ $127.20 | $102K | +1.7% of holding | −11.6% | +23.7% | 47,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Coleman Mark | director | Purchase | 488 @ $127.40 | $62K | +1.0% of holding | −11.6% | +23.7% | 48,212 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Coleman Mark | director | Purchase | 287 @ $127.30 | $37K | +0.6% of holding | −11.6% | +23.7% | 47,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Saad Mark E | director | Sale | 9,127 @ $125.07 | $1.1M | −47.7% of holding | −8.2% | +26.0% | 10,002 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 13,464 @ $123.68 | $1.7M | −19.0% of holding | −8.7% | +25.3% | 57,510 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-29 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $121.27 | $2.4M | −22.0% of holding | −3.4% | +29.2% | 70,974 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-28 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $121.60 | $2.4M | −18.0% of holding | −6.0% | +30.3% | 90,974 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $122.30 | $2.4M | −15.3% of holding | −6.8% | +27.8% | 110,974 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $120.03 | $2.4M | −13.2% of holding | −6.5% | +27.2% | 130,974 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Sale | 16,694 @ $120.08 | $2.0M | −10.0% of holding | −3.3% | +36.3% | 150,974 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | Murdock Hunter R. | officer | Sale | 6,014 @ $100.12 | $602K | −100.0% of holding | −1.0% | +36.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-20 | Murdock Hunter R. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $102.47 | $769K | −100.0% of holding | −4.0% | +31.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Murdock Hunter R. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $100.90 | $757K | −100.0% of holding | +1.0% | +30.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-17 | Murdock Hunter R. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $100.26 | $752K | −100.0% of holding | +4.6% | +30.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Murdock Hunter R. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $102.42 | $768K | −100.0% of holding | +5.9% | +30.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $110.44 | $2.8M | −81.2% of holding | −3.9% | +19.7% | 5,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $103.45 | $2.1M | −77.6% of holding | −4.6% | +30.5% | 5,783 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-28 | Coleman Mark | director | Sale | 3,750 @ $103.43 | $388K | −7.4% of holding | −4.6% | +30.5% | 46,637 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
177 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Option exercise | 10,000 | 104,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Option exercise | 4,660 | 11,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Option exercise | 4,660 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Option exercise | 45,004 | 52,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Option exercise | 45,004 | 4,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Option exercise | 49,666 | 56,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Option exercise | 49,666 | 49,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Option exercise | 49,670 | 56,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Pizzie Nick | officer | Option exercise | 33,000 | 75,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Option exercise | 49,670 | 99,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Pizzie Nick | officer | Option exercise | 33,000 | 72,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Coleman Mark | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mahony Susan | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Saad Mark E | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Saad Mark E | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 11,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Coleman Mark | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 31,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 58,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Coleman Mark | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 31,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mahony Susan | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 1,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Saad Mark E | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 11,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Mahony Susan | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 1,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Option exercise | 1,429 | 58,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | JEFFS ROGER | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 1,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Coleman Mark | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 1,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saad Mark E | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 1,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Mahony Susan | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 1,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Option exercise | 233 | 233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Option exercise | 233 | 114,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Option exercise | 4,517 | 4,517 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Option exercise | 4,517 | 115,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Maizel Ari | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 7,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Maizel Ari | officer | Option exercise | 7,500 | 23,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Pizzie Nick | officer | Award / grant | 8,188 | 8,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | TABUTEAU HERRIOT | director | Award / grant | 24,081 | 24,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Murdock Hunter R. | officer | Award / grant | 7,224 | 7,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Maizel Ari | officer | Award / grant | 7,224 | 7,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Award / grant | 8,669 | 8,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Jacobson Mark L. | officer | Option exercise | 35,378 | 35,378 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.