Issued 2026-08-13 at $214.66 · now $213.68 (2026-08-13, −0.5% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, AXSM has typically landed between $172.76 and $285.43 — a range of −19.5% to +33.0% from the issuance price $214.66.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,674 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-11-19 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($214.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AXSM has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $214.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $213.68 (-0.5%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $220.12 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $198.12–$242.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $172.76–$285.43
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-07-21 | −65.1% | −65.1% | +0.0% |
| 2021-07-12 | −63.5% | −63.5% | +0.0% |
| 2021-07-20 | −63.3% | −63.3% | +3.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2018-12-27 | +316.5% | +0.0% | +344.0% |
| 2018-12-26 | +297.6% | −2.4% | +333.2% |
| 2018-12-21 | +290.9% | −9.1% | +303.6% |
2,674 overlapping windows · 2015-11-19 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Elucidating TAAR-1, Dopamine, and Norepinephrine in Binge Eating Disorder Using Solriamfetol (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Studying Solriamfetol Modulation of TAAR-1, Dopamine, and Norepinephrine in Shift Work Disorder (SUSTAIN) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Solriamfetol in Subjects With Binge Eating Disorder (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- March 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Fibromyalgia Response With Esreboxetine Evaluated Using a Randomized Withdrawal Research Design (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- May 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Open-Label Safety Study of AXS-14 in Subjects With Fibromyalgia (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-06-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Solriamfetol in Adolescents With ADHD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- 2028-06-30 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of Solriamfetol in Children With ADHD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Clinical Assessment of Response in the Treatment of Depression With Daytime Sleepiness Using Solriamfetol (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.