Issued 2026-09-16 at $312.43 · now $312.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AXP has typically landed between $273.82 and $353.51 — a range of −12.4% to +13.1% from the issuance price $312.43.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($312.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AXP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $312.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $312.43 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $316.73 (+1.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $298.54–$334.93
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $273.82–$353.51
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −48.9% | −48.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −45.7% | −46.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −45.6% | −45.6% | +1.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-30 | +97.3% | +0.0% | +100.1% |
| 2009-03-31 | +87.5% | +0.0% | +88.1% |
| 2009-04-02 | +82.1% | +0.0% | +82.1% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$216.88
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$195.88
- Analyst target · range $324.00–$415.00$387.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$312.43
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Herena Monique | officer | Sale | 8,811 @ $337.41 | $3.0M | −41.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | McNeal Glenda G | director | Sale | 7,033 @ $339.36 | $2.4M | −42.0% of holding | +8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,715 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 16 @ $301.27 | $5K | −1.1% of holding | +4.2% | −5.6% | 1,487 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Lieberman Quinn Jessica | officer | Sale | 3,032 @ $300.02 | $910K | −92.2% of holding | +4.0% | −6.2% | 258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 24 @ $309.85 | $7K | −1.6% of holding | +3.4% | −4.3% | 1,503 | Form 4 · filed 11 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 4,977 @ $341.14 | $1.7M | −29.2% of holding | −8.8% | −14.8% | 12,050 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 3,348 @ $341.95 | $1.1M | −27.8% of holding | −8.8% | −14.8% | 8,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 2,840 @ $340.03 | $966K | −14.3% of holding | −8.8% | −14.8% | 17,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 2,835 @ $338.98 | $961K | −12.5% of holding | −8.8% | −14.8% | 19,867 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Grosfield Howard | officer | Sale | 8,134 @ $346.73 | $2.8M | −46.3% of holding | −11.2% | −14.1% | 9,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Seeger Laureen | director | Sale | 12,737 @ $360.99 | $4.6M | −58.6% of holding | −12.4% | −16.3% | 9,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Radhakrishnan Ravikumar | officer | Sale | 8,362 @ $356.14 | $3.0M | −34.9% of holding | −12.4% | −16.3% | 15,583 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Radhakrishnan Ravikumar | officer | Sale | 6,638 @ $357.13 | $2.4M | −42.6% of holding | −12.4% | −16.3% | 8,945 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Marrs Anna | director | Sale | 27,425 @ $350.01 | $9.6M | −57.4% of holding | −14.0% | −18.0% | 20,394 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | Pickett Denise | officer | Sale | 23,385 @ $356.91 | $8.3M | −75.1% of holding | −14.0% | −18.0% | 7,754 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $384.93 | $539K | −10.9% of holding | −7.7% | −21.1% | 11,417 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Rutledge Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 15,532 @ $360.09 | $5.6M | −12.4% of holding | +0.1% | −18.7% | 109,757 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Rutledge Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 15,196 @ $360.79 | $5.5M | −13.8% of holding | +0.1% | −18.7% | 94,561 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Rutledge Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 8,984 @ $361.57 | $3.2M | −9.5% of holding | +0.1% | −18.7% | 85,577 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Rutledge Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 4,971 @ $358.10 | $1.8M | −3.7% of holding | +0.1% | −18.7% | 129,523 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Rutledge Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 4,234 @ $359.04 | $1.5M | −3.3% of holding | +0.1% | −18.7% | 125,289 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Rutledge Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 1,083 @ $356.94 | $387K | −0.8% of holding | +0.1% | −18.7% | 134,494 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-23 | Tabish Douglas | officer | Sale | 2,515 @ $355.61 | $894K | −50.0% of holding | +1.3% | −16.8% | 2,515 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Pickett Denise | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $350.73 | $1.8M | −39.3% of holding | −0.0% | −17.8% | 7,726 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Sale | 48,522 @ $329.81 | $16.0M | −26.9% of holding | −3.5% | −12.7% | 132,080 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Sale | 39,270 @ $330.43 | $13.0M | −29.7% of holding | −3.5% | −12.7% | 92,810 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-04 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Sale | 24,480 @ $329.03 | $8.1M | −11.9% of holding | −3.5% | −12.7% | 180,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Herena Monique | officer | Sale | 8,695 @ $325.88 | $2.8M | −41.5% of holding | −2.2% | −11.1% | 12,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Buckminster Douglas E. | officer | Sale | 23,505 @ $326.37 | $7.7M | −16.0% of holding | −5.5% | −13.2% | 123,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | Seeger Laureen | director | Sale | 16,998 @ $294.83 | $5.0M | −65.4% of holding | +8.1% | +12.9% | 9,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Seeger Laureen | director | Sale | 39,383 @ $297.24 | $11.7M | −55.7% of holding | +8.1% | +9.9% | 31,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Seeger Laureen | director | Sale | 22,338 @ $297.88 | $6.7M | −71.3% of holding | +8.1% | +9.9% | 9,001 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | McNeal Glenda G | director | Sale | 32,391 @ $309.62 | $10.0M | −74.7% of holding | +2.7% | +6.2% | 10,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | McNeal Glenda G | director | Sale | 17,609 @ $309.27 | $5.4M | −28.9% of holding | +2.7% | +6.2% | 43,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Marrs Anna | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $310.77 | $1.7M | −21.3% of holding | +2.7% | +6.2% | 20,311 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-20 | Marquez Rafael | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $296.93 | $3.6M | −59.8% of holding | +0.3% | +3.6% | 8,078 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 400 @ $302.44 | $121K | −16.7% of holding | −4.3% | +6.0% | 1,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Grosfield Howard | officer | Sale | 9,450 @ $275.50 | $2.6M | −50.1% of holding | +1.3% | +10.0% | 9,402 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-29 | McNeal Glenda G | director | Sale | 3,019 @ $264.66 | $799K | −21.7% of holding | +4.2% | +11.2% | 10,919 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | Joabar Raymond | director | Purchase | 2 @ $261.56 | $523 | +0.1% of holding | +5.6% | +0.9% | 1,527 | Form 4 · filed 338 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Angelakis Michael J | director | Purchase | 3,700 @ $269.89 | $999K | ownership Δ n/a | −1.8% | +6.5% | 3,700 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Marrs Anna | director | Sale | 8,999 @ $287.18 | $2.6M | −21.9% of holding | −1.1% | +2.6% | 32,043 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Marrs Anna | director | Sale | 5,681 @ $291.50 | $1.7M | −18.1% of holding | −1.1% | +2.6% | 25,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Marrs Anna | director | Sale | 3,677 @ $285.00 | $1.0M | −7.7% of holding | −1.1% | +2.6% | 44,039 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Marrs Anna | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $286.68 | $659K | −5.3% of holding | −1.1% | +2.6% | 41,042 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Marrs Anna | director | Sale | 697 @ $285.51 | $199K | −1.6% of holding | −1.1% | +2.6% | 43,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Marrs Anna | director | Sale | 300 @ $290.76 | $87K | −0.9% of holding | −1.1% | +2.6% | 31,442 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Marrs Anna | director | Sale | 301 @ $287.78 | $87K | −0.9% of holding | −1.1% | +2.6% | 31,742 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Lieberman Quinn Jessica | officer | Sale | 3,028 @ $296.43 | $898K | −92.1% of holding | −3.8% | +0.1% | 258 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-11 | McNeal Glenda G | director | Sale | 7,391 @ $309.96 | $2.3M | −34.7% of holding | −8.3% | −7.5% | 13,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Sale | 12,744 @ $320.08 | $4.1M | −11.3% of holding | −10.8% | −12.3% | 100,455 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Sale | 8,168 @ $319.57 | $2.6M | −6.7% of holding | −10.8% | −12.3% | 113,199 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Sale | 7,645 @ $320.52 | $2.5M | −7.6% of holding | −10.8% | −12.3% | 92,810 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Sale | 7,543 @ $319.12 | $2.4M | −5.9% of holding | −10.8% | −12.3% | 121,367 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Sale | 7,397 @ $318.66 | $2.4M | −5.4% of holding | −10.8% | −12.3% | 128,910 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Sale | 7,344 @ $318.25 | $2.3M | −5.1% of holding | −10.8% | −12.3% | 136,307 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Pickett Denise | officer | Sale | 22,752 @ $318.69 | $7.3M | −64.3% of holding | −10.1% | −12.8% | 12,627 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 11,121 @ $317.01 | $3.5M | −46.6% of holding | −10.1% | −12.8% | 12,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Radhakrishnan Ravikumar | officer | Sale | 9,485 @ $319.17 | $3.0M | −41.3% of holding | −10.1% | −12.8% | 13,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Joabar Raymond | director | Sale | 15,179 @ $313.94 | $4.8M | −38.9% of holding | −4.0% | −9.3% | 23,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
232 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Brennan John Joseph | director | Award / grant | 198 | 29,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Young Christopher David | director | Award / grant | 120 | 20,992 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | WARDELL LISA W | director | Award / grant | 112 | 10,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wallace Noel R. | director | Award / grant | 109 | 972 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Baltimore Thomas J Jr | director | Award / grant | 109 | 10,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | PHILLIPS JR CHARLES E | director | Award / grant | 56 | 10,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Angelakis Michael J | director | Award / grant | 54 | 1,908 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Majoras Deborah P | director | Award / grant | 54 | 5,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | WARDELL LISA W | director | Award / grant | 742 | 10,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Young Christopher David | director | Award / grant | 742 | 20,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Pike Lynn Ann | director | Award / grant | 742 | 9,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Angelakis Michael J | director | Award / grant | 742 | 1,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Quarles Randal K. | director | Award / grant | 742 | 742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Baltimore Thomas J Jr | director | Award / grant | 742 | 10,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Brennan John Joseph | director | Award / grant | 742 | 29,205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Leonsis Theodore | director | Award / grant | 742 | 42,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Majoras Deborah P | director | Award / grant | 742 | 5,059 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | PARKHILL KAREN L | director | Award / grant | 742 | 9,256 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | PHILLIPS JR CHARLES E | director | Award / grant | 742 | 10,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Wallace Noel R. | director | Award / grant | 742 | 863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Brennan John Joseph | director | Award / grant | 221 | 28,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Young Christopher David | director | Award / grant | 134 | 20,070 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | WARDELL LISA W | director | Award / grant | 125 | 9,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Baltimore Thomas J Jr | director | Award / grant | 121 | 9,505 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Wallace Noel R. | director | Award / grant | 121 | 121 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | VASELLA DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 109 | 46,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | PHILLIPS JR CHARLES E | director | Award / grant | 63 | 9,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Angelakis Michael J | director | Award / grant | 61 | 1,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Majoras Deborah P | director | Award / grant | 61 | 4,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Marrs Anna | director | Option exercise | 14,992 | 47,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Pickett Denise | officer | Option exercise | 12,660 | 31,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Marrs Anna | director | Option exercise | 14,992 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Pickett Denise | officer | Option exercise | 12,660 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Squeri Stephen J | director | Withheld for tax | 62,466 | 60,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Buckminster Douglas E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,933 | 148,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Seeger Laureen | director | Withheld for tax | 14,119 | 21,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Marrs Anna | director | Withheld for tax | 13,637 | 31,640 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Joabar Raymond | director | Withheld for tax | 13,045 | 22,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Pickett Denise | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,287 | 18,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-01 | Herena Monique | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,989 | 21,105 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Richard W. Allen | House | purchase | 2026-06-16 | 2026-05-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Rick Larsen | House | sale | 2026-04-15 | 2026-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | purchase | 2026-04-04 | 2026-03-11 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.