Issued 2026-09-16 at $45.44 · now $45.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AXGN has typically landed between $35.63 and $59.69 — a range of −21.6% to +31.4% from the issuance price $45.44.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,000 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($45.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AXGN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $45.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $45.44 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $45.98 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $40.32–$51.64
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.63–$59.69
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,000 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2009-03-12 | −58.3% | −58.3% | +0.0% |
| 2007-11-28 | −56.0% | −56.0% | +0.0% |
| 2007-08-31 | −56.0% | −56.0% | +6.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2007-05-03 | +229.1% | +0.0% | +256.5% |
| 2007-05-01 | +224.4% | −9.0% | +224.4% |
| 2007-04-30 | +224.4% | −9.0% | +224.4% |
5,000 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
+5.6%
n=20
Feb
60%
+5.1%
n=20
Mar
35%
−3.8%
n=20
Apr
50%
+8.5%
n=20
May
35%
+10.6%
n=20
Jun
55%
+3.8%
n=20
Jul
40%
+5.3%
n=20
Aug
55%
+3.6%
n=20
Sep
40%
+0.4%
n=20
Oct
55%
+3.8%
n=20
Nov
50%
+8.2%
n=20
Dec
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $49.70 | $174K | −24.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,650 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Sale | 13,353 @ $48.42 | $647K | −11.0% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Began Marc A | officer | Sale | 67,500 @ $47.34 | $3.2M | −57.4% of holding | −0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,135 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Sale | 14,150 @ $45.30 | $641K | −100.0% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Sale | 1,647 @ $42.60 | $70K | −1.7% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,826 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Sale | 16,344 @ $44.09 | $721K | −100.0% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Kemp Jens | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $43.44 | $174K | −5.2% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 72,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Quackenbush Doris | officer | Sale | 3,878 @ $43.51 | $169K | −4.0% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Sale | 573 @ $43.67 | $25K | −0.9% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 65,146 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Sale | 478 @ $43.67 | $21K | −0.8% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,756 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | DeVinney Erick Wayne | officer | Sale | 5,221 @ $32.84 | $171K | −1.9% of holding | +0.9% | +23.1% | 262,781 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Sale | 21,825 @ $29.55 | $645K | −76.8% of holding | +3.5% | +41.9% | 6,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Sale | 20,436 @ $29.31 | $599K | −15.4% of holding | +3.5% | +41.9% | 112,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Sale | 18,248 @ $29.55 | $539K | −39.1% of holding | +3.5% | +41.9% | 28,405 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Sale | 18,248 @ $29.31 | $535K | −16.3% of holding | +3.5% | +41.9% | 93,826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Sale | 6,580 @ $29.55 | $194K | −100.0% of holding | +3.5% | +41.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $29.31 | $147K | −3.6% of holding | +3.5% | +41.9% | 132,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Sale | 14,812 @ $29.86 | $442K | −32.1% of holding | +2.8% | +40.2% | 31,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Began Marc A | officer | Sale | 13,222 @ $30.00 | $397K | −42.0% of holding | +2.2% | +35.7% | 18,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | DALE MICHAEL D | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $30.00 | $750K | −28.2% of holding | +3.7% | +34.8% | 63,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | DALE MICHAEL D | director | Sale | 61,463 @ $31.21 | $1.9M | −41.0% of holding | +7.6% | +29.8% | 88,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | THOMAS PAUL | director | Sale | 21,399 @ $29.61 | $634K | −61.3% of holding | +7.6% | +29.8% | 13,528 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | DeVinney Erick Wayne | officer | Sale | 19,517 @ $31.21 | $609K | −7.5% of holding | +7.6% | +29.8% | 241,132 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Sale | 14,248 @ $30.98 | $441K | −56.7% of holding | +7.6% | +29.8% | 10,860 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Sale | 13,141 @ $29.98 | $394K | −100.0% of holding | +7.6% | +29.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Sale | 10,860 @ $30.98 | $336K | −100.0% of holding | +7.6% | +29.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Began Marc A | officer | Sale | 9,278 @ $31.21 | $290K | −22.7% of holding | +7.6% | +29.8% | 31,507 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Sale | 8,545 @ $29.98 | $256K | −39.4% of holding | +7.6% | +29.8% | 13,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Kemp Jens | officer | Sale | 8,156 @ $31.21 | $255K | −15.1% of holding | +7.6% | +29.8% | 46,030 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Sale | 11,891 @ $31.22 | $371K | −47.5% of holding | +7.2% | +27.5% | 13,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Sale | 11,802 @ $31.26 | $369K | −47.3% of holding | +7.2% | +27.5% | 13,141 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Sale | 11,533 @ $31.56 | $364K | −25.2% of holding | +7.2% | +27.5% | 34,230 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Sale | 2,854 @ $31.56 | $90K | −8.3% of holding | +7.2% | +27.5% | 31,376 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 3,591 @ $24.02 | $86K | −97.3% of holding | +21.7% | +57.3% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 19,227 @ $24.01 | $462K | −99.5% of holding | +24.1% | +58.3% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-06 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 5,347 @ $24.01 | $128K | −98.2% of holding | +26.4% | +59.1% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 11,431 @ $24.05 | $275K | −99.1% of holding | +41.3% | +70.4% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 18,248 @ $23.00 | $420K | −99.5% of holding | +25.7% | +81.7% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 19,799 @ $22.00 | $436K | −99.5% of holding | +29.3% | +89.1% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-29 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 20,436 @ $19.15 | $391K | −99.5% of holding | +29.3% | +89.1% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-22 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 1,457 @ $18.02 | $26K | −93.6% of holding | +44.5% | +109.9% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 736 @ $18.00 | $13K | −32.1% of holding | +38.0% | +96.9% | 1,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 14,571 @ $18.21 | $265K | −86.4% of holding | +27.9% | +74.3% | 2,293 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-03 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 7,600 @ $18.21 | $138K | −100.0% of holding | +27.9% | +74.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 7,620 @ $18.01 | $137K | −31.1% of holding | +22.4% | +83.5% | 16,864 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 2,400 @ $18.01 | $43K | −24.0% of holding | +22.4% | +83.5% | 7,600 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | DeVinney Erick Wayne | officer | Sale | 1,137 @ $16.29 | $19K | −0.5% of holding | −4.7% | +84.1% | 220,649 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-10 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Sale | 26,931 @ $10.72 | $289K | −100.0% of holding | +7.6% | +172.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Sale | 4,073 @ $10.61 | $43K | −4.2% of holding | +11.1% | +181.1% | 93,826 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Sale | 4,073 @ $10.61 | $43K | −14.3% of holding | +11.1% | +181.1% | 24,484 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Sale | 4,073 @ $10.61 | $43K | −14.0% of holding | +11.1% | +181.1% | 24,943 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | NEELS GUIDO J | director | Sale | 4,073 @ $10.61 | $43K | −4.5% of holding | +11.1% | +181.1% | 86,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Levine Alan M | director | Sale | 4,073 @ $10.61 | $43K | −10.0% of holding | +11.1% | +181.1% | 36,743 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Sale | 4,073 @ $10.61 | $43K | −38.2% of holding | +11.1% | +181.1% | 6,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Sale | 12,850 @ $11.20 | $144K | −36.3% of holding | −11.6% | +122.1% | 22,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-22 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Sale | 7,212 @ $11.20 | $81K | −32.0% of holding | −11.6% | +122.1% | 15,345 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Sale | 2,525 @ $11.63 | $29K | −10.1% of holding | −21.4% | +87.9% | 22,557 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | DeVinney Erick Wayne | officer | Sale | 15,111 @ $17.50 | $264K | −6.5% of holding | −6.1% | −21.0% | 217,762 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $20.02 | $100K | −4.9% of holding | −4.1% | −28.9% | 97,899 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
146 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Option exercise | 13,353 | 121,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Option exercise | 13,353 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Began Marc A | officer | Option exercise | 67,500 | 117,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Began Marc A | officer | Option exercise | 67,500 | 22,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Award / grant | 4,392 | 4,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Award / grant | 4,392 | 4,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Levine Alan M | director | Award / grant | 4,392 | 4,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | THOMAS PAUL | director | Award / grant | 5,579 | 5,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Award / grant | 4,392 | 4,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Award / grant | 4,392 | 4,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Award / grant | 4,392 | 4,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 14,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Burke William P. Mr. | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 14,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | TYNDALL JOSEPH A. | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | THOMAS PAUL | director | Option exercise | 18,867 | 32,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | THOMAS PAUL | director | Option exercise | 18,867 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 14,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Levine Alan M | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 50,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Levine Alan M | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 107,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 14,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-19 | JOHNSON JOHN | director | Option exercise | 14,150 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Option exercise | 1,647 | 95,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wendell Amy McBride | director | Option exercise | 1,647 | 13,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Option exercise | 16,344 | 16,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Option exercise | 2,963 | 65,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 63,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Option exercise | 2,963 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Weiler Kathy Johnson | director | Option exercise | 16,344 | 27,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | DeVinney Erick Wayne | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,870 | 256,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,968 | 60,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Hartley Lindsey Marie | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,574 | 57,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | DeVinney Erick Wayne | officer | Option exercise | 11,575 | 268,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | DeVinney Erick Wayne | officer | Option exercise | 6,363 | 259,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | DeVinney Erick Wayne | officer | Option exercise | 6,363 | 6,363 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | DeVinney Erick Wayne | officer | Option exercise | 11,575 | 11,575 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.